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General Poker
Rigged: The AA test
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[QUOTE="MrSwissCheese, post: 1019918, member: 42985"] My, my, my. . . where should I start. . . Do you have any idea how a slot machine works? A slot machine is programmed to pay out a certain level of money taken in (90%, 95%, 105%, etc.). Collectively, the casino will pay out a very large portion of the slot take in prizes. I know the Missouri Gaming Commission publishes these numbers as required by law, I don't know if other states are the same way. For instance, November 2008, Harrah's St. Louis had a Slot Hold percentage of 8.8%, meaning they paid out 91.2% of all the money they took in in slots (which for the record was about $21.5 million). So the slot machines collectively did their duty pulling in just shy of $1.9 million last month. The reports are quite fascinating for anyone wanting to look at them - you will need Excel or a viewer to open them, they're available on the MGC website at [url]www.mgc.dps.mo.gov[/url]. Fact is that as long as the slots are on the up and up (in other words they haven't been programmed incorrectly), they will rake in money hand over fist because they're programmed to pay out less than they take in. Poker, on the other hand, is the only game where they house isn't playing. So the house makes money two ways. First is the rake and then by taking a percentage of an optional "bad beat" jackpot (I've only seen these in brick and mortar casinos, not online - the ones offered online will pay out a bad beat jackpot, but the players don't voluntarily contribute to it). The only way that a casino can make more money at poker is to host more raked hands - whether it's online or live. Online casinos do have one more way to make money - they earn intrest on the millions of dollars of the players money that they hold. If you make a $100 deposit, it goes directly into THEIR banks, where they earn intrest on it until you cash out. When beginners, newcomers, and inexperienced players make a deposit and lose, lose, lose, they may stop playing, but the money they put into the system STAYS. It goes to a more experienced player that will continue to play and contribute ring and tournament rake. There is only one way for money to enter the system - players deposit. There are only two ways for money to exit the system - players cash out and the casino takes it's rake (Although, most casinos will give back some of the rake in the form of freerolls and guaranteed money tournaments). So your statement about no deposits and no rake only makes sense if EVERYONE (including the good experienced players) stop playing. Let's make an assumption that you're correct - the only way a casino can make money hand over fist is by cheating. By your statement, Brick & Mortar casino's can't cheat (since the whole basis for your argument is that the online games don't work the same way as they do at a live game). Why the hell would a brick and mortar casino even [B]have[/B] a poker room if they're not making money hand over fist in a legitimate way? As we stated before a single casino in a MINOR market (Harrah's in St. Louis) pulled in $1.9 MILLION in a single month on slots alone. Wouldn't it be better if they allocated the poker room square footage to cash cow slots? The answer is THEY DID. I grand opened Harrah's in St. Louis in 1997 when they had the biggest poker room in the St. Louis market. Within a year or two, they closed the poker room down and filled the area with slots for several years because the poker tables were empty. The re-launched the poker rooms during the big boom in 2002. Why? Because they could make more money off the poker tables than the additional slot machines. I can only say that since right now you have 40 posts, you're actually interested in getting to be part of the poker community and the freerolls here at CardsChat. You do realize that we play the freerolls with the same flawed not-really-poker software that you're describing, right? I'm going to step aside here and say I'm not a professional counselor, but I really believe that you ought to seek some help if you are spending too much money at the tables. I'm not saying that you have a problem, but I can only say that if you honestly believe what you have just said - that online poker is not really poker, but rather a giant lottery that is rigged in favor of the have-nots, yet you still spend money on it, you ought to seek help. As far as the hand histories go, I'm not 100% certain (but pretty damn close to it), but I don't recall seeing a brick and mortar casino offer complete and total hand histories to their patrons. If the brick and mortar casinos aren't required to do so, then why should an online casino do it? You're right - it is an excersize in futility - not because it isn't worthwhile, but there's no way for just Cardschat players to collect enough data to be significant. Even at 100 hands an hour, it will take tens of thousands of hours to collect data that has any significance. One thing that you have to remember, AA vs. AA will still LOSE 2% of of the time. It will tie 96% of the time, but each of you have two different suits which will lead to flushes. If you're so confident that the poker tables are rigged, I would be willing to play my two Aces against any two cards of your choice. AA vs. KK, AA vs. 72, I don't care. If we could find a place that would deal us 1,000 hands at whatever stakes you choose, I'd play that in a heartbeat. I'd even be willing to spot you 100 wins. Fact is that I will be 78-85% favorite depending on the two cards you choose, and I'd be crazy not to take those odds. Let me know if you find a place that will let us do that. [/QUOTE]
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