Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="RoyalFish, post: 1058876, member: 49792"] Statistics are funny things. Getting pocket aces is 221:1. The odds of NOT getting pocket aces for 400 hands is (221/222)^400, or 16.2%, or a little better than your chance of flipping a coin and getting heads three times in a row. It's not what you expect to happen, but it's not really surprising either. Now what if you have, say, 20 people posting in a thread about the subject. What's the chance at least one of them has gone more than 400 hands without AA? It's 1 - P(nobody has gone more than 400 hands without AA). or 1 - .838^20 with is....0.9715. There's a 3% chance that NOBODY in a group of 20 people has gone longer than 400 hands without getting pocket aces. If anything, I expect a few more people in this thread have gone at least as long. RF [/QUOTE]