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Poker Discussion
General Poker
Rigged: The AA test
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[QUOTE="grift, post: 745369, member: 34903"] When I use the term "we" in the following post I mean the forum in general. Let's talk statistics. 4dogs is testing a hypothesis. For more on what that means: [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_hypothesis_testing"]Statistical hypothesis testing - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/URL] I'm going to paraphrase some of this article just to get to the essentials. We have a null hypothesis. The null hypothesis is kind of our "assumption." Here, [B]4dogs is assuming that the sites are rigged[/B], [B]by dealing a different number of a certain hand than expected[/B]. He collects data, and attempts to show that this particular assumption is incorrect. He showed this to a pretty convincing confidence level, using the suitable hypothesis testing method. His data show that it is [B]very unlikely[/B] that the major sites[B] rig hands by dealing different amounts of certain hands than the expected amount.[/B] That is what the test is about. [B]It only proves that the site is not rigged using this method.[/B] [B]It simply disproves his null hypothesis.[/B] [B]These data make absolutely no statement as to whether the site is rigged in another manner.[/B] Pocket 2's could hit quads every time they are dealt, be dealt the correct amount of times, and thus the site would be rigged, but we could still disprove our null hypothesis because the expected amount of starting hands hasn't changed. This is why discussion of other forms of rigging is outside of the scope of this thread. 4dogs has acknowledged this. We all have acknowledged this. Any other discussion of whether a site is rigged is outside of the scope of these data. Which means, why talk about it here? Why not start a new thread, collect new data, and do a new analysis? That way, posts stay relevant, and we're not just throwing theories around, we're actually looking at data and making informed decisions. I think this is the point you've been missing that 4dogs didn't really elaborate on. [/QUOTE]
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