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Poker Discussion
General Poker
Rigged: The AA test
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[QUOTE="Four Dogs, post: 814299, member: 2668"] Here's a quick recap. Many people believe that some, or all of the on-line poker sites rig the deck to produce more action hands which in turn produce bigger pots which in turn produce a larger rake. If this were so, there would tend to be anomalys in the expected distribution of starting hands. Just for fun we picked the most glamorous starting hand of all AA and asked our members to contribute stats on how many hands they played and how often they were dealt AA. The ratio of any pair to hands dealt is well known and easy to calculate and is 1/221 or .004525/hand. To be fair we have separated the data into different poker rooms so that if one site were indeed fiddling with the deck, the other sites stats would not be tainted by the results of the one bad site. If the RNG (random number generators) and shuffling algorithms are indeed producing a legitimately random shuffle, the difference between the ratio of AA to hands dealt and to that magic number of .004525 should get increasingly smaller but never in fact vanish. In the case of PokerStars with by far the largest sample size we are very close to the expected value. In the case of Full Tilt, we are not as close as I would expect with so large a sample size. Does that mean it's rigged. I don't know. You decide for yourself. I will say that although the deviation is greater than I would expect, the number of AA hands one should see is not greater than expected, but less. If bigger hands do in fact produce bigger rakes, then Full Tilt is cheating noone but themselves. [/QUOTE]
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