Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="On A Pair Draw, post: 834361, member: 42156"] [SIZE=3]I can see how showing that the distribution of AA is improper would prove that the software is not working properly (“rigged,” although I think that sounds like there is some conspiracy at work, when all we are trying to prove is whether or not the software is selecting cards randomly).[/SIZE] [SIZE=3]But I don’t see how showing that your AA distribution is correct proves that the software is working correctly in every way. All it proves is that hand distribution looks good….and not even for other hands…just AA in this thread.[/SIZE] [SIZE=3]It would be great if someone could prove that any given online poker site was perfectly straight, but that would take a lot more than the analysis offered by poker tracker and other commercial software.[/SIZE] [SIZE=3]It seems to me that looking at AA distribution and claiming that it proves a site is not rigged is like looking at the breaks on a used car and saying it proves the car is in great shape….only you never checked the engine.[/SIZE] [SIZE=3]You can have perfect AA distribution, but what if you are losing 50% of the times you go all in pre flop heads up? That would be messed up, but your distribution would still look good.[/SIZE] [SIZE=3]Or what if your distribution is right, and you win the right percentage of hands all in pre flop heads up, but the pots you lost all fell within the top 25% largest pots you were involved in with AA? Then your distribution and win percentage would look good, but that would still be messed up.[/SIZE] [SIZE=3]Or what if your distribution looked good, your win rate looked good, and the pot sizes evened out, but every time you flopped set over set with another pair, your opponent made quads on the river to beat you? That would also be pretty messed up.[/SIZE] [SIZE=3]I might be missing something here, but it seems like AA distribution is a drop in the software bucket and it falls short of proving anything. An online poker site would have to be pretty dumb to skew the software on something as easy to see as hand distribution, considering they know what poker tracker can keep track of and they write their hand histories in such a fashion that poker tracker can easily convert them into data.[/SIZE] [SIZE=3]Personally, I’d like someone to analyze hands based on odds, which is something no commercial program can do right now. I’d like a program to take a large database of hands, group each situation by odds, like all the four to one hands in one group and all the three to one hands in another, and then analyze if players are really winning four out of five hands when they are four to one favorite. [/SIZE] [SIZE=3]I haven’t seen anything that can do that yet. But that would surely go a lot farther toward proving or disproving than hand distribution.[/SIZE] [SIZE=3][/SIZE] [SIZE=3][/SIZE] [SIZE=3][/SIZE] [/QUOTE]

Verification

Search

Reply to thread

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site

Follow us