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[QUOTE="PTR, post: 1567185, member: 71391"]
In your particular example, you have around 25.6% equity when you have a flush draw on the flop and you're up against a set .  It is pretty confusing though...

Lets break it down:

You have A♠Q♠
The board on the flop is 2♠4♠8♣
Your opponent has 4[COLOR="Red"]♦[/COLOR]4[COLOR="red"]♥[/COLOR] for the set.

There are 13 spades total in the deck.  You are holding 2 spades and there are 2 spades on the board.  There are 9 spades left.  The 8♠ will give your opponent a full house, so that doesn't count.  On the turn, there are 8 spades in the deck that will give you the flush and not give your opponent a better hand.  The chances of you hitting one of those 8 spades on the turn is around 16%.

Let's say you do hit your 16% chance on the turn.  It's the 9♠.  You're opponent can still beat you if he hits a full house or quads on the river.  He can hit a 4♣ (1 out), an 8 (3 outs), a 2 (3 outs) or a 9 (3 outs).  He has a total of 10 outs, or a 20% chance of winning.  So really, your odds of winning the entire hand if you hit your flush on the turn is around [COLOR="SeaGreen"][B]12.8%[/B][/COLOR] (16% * 80%).  You multiply by 80% because your opponent will still win 20% of the time (100-20=80).

Now let's say you don't hit your flush on the turn.  It's the Q[COLOR="red"]♥[/COLOR].  Instead of having 8 outs to hit your flush, you now have 7 because if the Q♠ comes on the river, your opponent will hit a full house and beat your flush.  That leaves you with only a [COLOR="SeaGreen"][B]14%[/B][/COLOR] chance of improving on the river.

So in total, you have 12.8% + 14% = 26.8%

Our calculations are by 1.2% due to rounding errors, but it's accurate enough for most situations.

- Michael
[/QUOTE]

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