Reply to thread

Message

[QUOTE="cjatud2012, post: 1575471, member: 52862"]
sorry if it seems like I'm spamming this thread now (and derailing quite a bit tbh), but I'm back on my own computer now, so I wanted to elaborate a little on this with SNGWiz.

Let's assume we're 5-handed in a 9-man turbo, the blinds are t250/t500 and all players have t2700 stacks, which is roughly 20% equity here.  We're in the SB and the action folds to us.  We have 32o.  Our opponent tells us that if we shove, he'll call with any pocket pair, any ace, and any two broadway cards.  Should we shove?  Absolutely, and in fact it's not really a close decision.

The reason is because we stand to gain t500 chips, which represents a substantial increase to our tournament equity, let's say it increases our equity by about 5%.  Given the range he said he'll call with, we'll only get called about 25% of the time, so 75% of the time we're increasing our equity by a ton, uncontested.  The 25% of the time he does call, we have ~30% equity:

equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     71.289%      70.79%     00.50%         5120061492      36095076.00   { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1:     28.711%      28.21%     00.50%         2040520452      36095076.00   { 32o }

(I'm rounding a little to make the math a little easier).

Obviously the 70% of the time he calls and we lose our equity drops to zero, but when we in our equity jumps probably near 35%.  So doing some quick math:

x = .25*[.7*(0%-20%)+.3(35%-20%)] + .75*(25%-20%)
[B]x = 1.375% gain in equity on average[/B]

I've attached a photo of SNGWiz showing the exact numbers in this spot (like I said, I rounded a lot to make some of the math easier).  Obviously this spot was extremely simplified because we knew exactly what the villain's calling range was, in game we won't know for sure but if we have a HUD or have been paying attention we should be able to determine somewhat how wide/narrow he will be calling.  If he's calling tighter, we shove wider.  If he's calling wider, we shove tighter.  At the end of the day when you start to add up all of the $EV's of these spots, you're burning money if you don't take advantage of these situations.
[/QUOTE]

Verification

Search

Reply to thread

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site

Follow us