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Message: [QUOTE="jdeliverer, post: 1218079, member: 38411"] I still think that you are missing the fact that one player hitting a set decreases the chance that the other player hits their set (greatly). To demonstrate this, take your logic one step further. What are the chances of 4 players having pocket pairs and all hitting their sets on the flop? By the math above, approximately 190802:1. But of course, the true answer is zero - four players can't all hit their set. That's because the first three players hitting sets decreases the chances that the fourth person does (in this case to zero). Extending my method above, you would get zero as one of the terms in the numerator will become zero, so my method checks out at least in that respect. Unfortunately, the simplest answer is not usually the right one in probability, which is why I find it so interesting. [/QUOTE]