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[QUOTE="billbaffles, post: 3031559, member: 191149"]
i like to look at it as gambling. I see two different possibilities playing poker.  One is plainly putting your money in when you are way behind and losing all your money.  That is not variance but a bad decision where your chances are slim to win.  The other is putting your money in when you are ahead but depending on your equity you will lose a percentage of the time.  I like to think about it like black jack where the house is like 50.1% chance to win but some players go on huge runs and win lots of money but by doing it over and over and over the house wins in the long run.  When people win as the underdog its negative variance but it is part of the game.  As long as you have the pots odds even if you are behind in the hand you still have the right price to call and win but when you do not win its negative variance.  Sometimes though you may lose as the favorite in the hand and lose repeatedly like the house and blackjack.  Each time you lose in a single hand as the favorite say AA with 84%  you got unlucky that someone else won the pot but negative variance is when you get unlucky over and over that is abnormal to your hand equity.  Say you have AA ten times in a row and each hand you get unlucky and lose 9 out of 10.  Thats negative variance because according to the odds you were suppose to win at least 8 and got unlucky a bunch.
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