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Message: [QUOTE="IntenseHeat, post: 3034219, member: 92488"] The difference between luck and variance to me is simple to me. Variance has to do with odds and outs and percentages. It is a term that is used to describe small deviations in the odds over a short term. Luck on the other hand has more to do with situations and timing. Let's look at it like this... Let's say holding a certain hand against a certain other hand, I am expected to wind 70% of the time. That means that I am expected to win 7 out of 10 times. Which means that I am expected to lose 30% or 3 out of 10 times in that same situation. However, I might find myself in that precise situation 10 times on a particular day. Out of the 10 hands that I find myself in that situation I may find myself winning 9 of the 10. The next day I might win 6 times out of 10 ten. The next day I might win 8 of 10. I might win 5 times out of 10 the next day, and 6 of 10 the day after that. These slight deviations above and below the expected percentages are, of course, referred to as variance. Now if you look at the numbers that I gave you, you might notice that on no single day does the win rate match the expected win rate of 70%. But if you do the math, you will see that over 5 days and 50 hands I would have a win rate of 68%. As you approach 100 hands you would expect to find yourself even closer to that 70% expected win rate, and even closer as you approach 1000 hands. At 100,000 hands you would can expect yourself to be pretty much dead on the expected percentages. At 1,000,000 hands you could chisel them in stone, or laser etch them into steel, depending on the technology you available to you. Whatever. But if you were take a sample of 10 hands from anywhere within that range, you could expect to find some variation in the percentages or variance. Over the short term, you can expect to see a certain amount of variance. But over longer periods or bigger samples, you expect you see smaller and smaller variations from the expected odds. Those deviations over short periods or samples are what variance is. Luck, as I said before, has more to do with specific situations and timing. At least that's how I see it. Let's take the same example of me holding that particular hand against the other hand where I am expected to win 70% of the time. We could remove variance altogether and say that I win 70% of time and lose 30% of the time, just as expected. The fact the 30% of the time that I lose always seems to come just as the bubble approaches causing me to go out a couple places shy of the money... Well, that's just my shitty luck! [/QUOTE]

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