Reply to thread

Message

[QUOTE="ph_il, post: 3042587, member: 508"]
Variance is just the upswings/downswings you can expect when playing poker.

Bad luck is just when the negative variance hits.

An example:

Lets say you're on the FT bubble of an online MTT, 5K for 1st.  You have the 2nd largest stack in the BB with AA and the 1st largest stack shoves UTG!  [Oh, happy day!].  It's folded to you, you snap call, and UTG shows KK.

Board runs out: x-x-K-x-x and you bust out in 10th place.

[B]Variance:[/B] AA > KK 80% of the time, but KK still wins 20% of the time.

[B]Bad Luck: [/B]It had to happen at that moment.

Also, variance is more mathematical based.  Luck is more situation based.

For example running into AA when you have KK is just a cooler, but it's also a bit unlucky.  There is only 1 hand can beat you and out of the 1326 combinations of hands, there are only 6 combinations of that 1 hand that can beat you.  And you were unlucky enough to run into it.

Or you're in a multiway limped pot in the BB with 4c7c and the flop is 5c3c6c giving you a straight flush.  SB checks, you check, and 5 other players all check.  Turn is the 6d.  Again, everyone checks. River is the 10c and now there is a 4 card flush on a paired board, so surely someone has something like the Ac or a boat.  SB checks.  You bet out a small 1/4 pot to get some action, and everyone folds.  You had a great hand, but unlucky that no one else had anything and you made the minimum off of it.
[/QUOTE]

Verification

Search

Reply to thread

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site

Follow us