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Poker Discussion
General Poker
Variance or bad luck - what is the difference?
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[QUOTE="L0RDVAD3R, post: 3144447, member: 201077"] This is true of all things in nature. But for the same reason a Squirrels doesn't go foraging for nuts on the ground more than once when theres a bush at the bottom that turns out to be a bear (consider that a bad beat); a moth will keep smashing itself into a lightbulb because it likes the light and the heat (didn't learn from 1st mistake, lost to another bad beat), then all the way to the shy Chameleon that can fade into it's surroundings,staying still for many hours (apart from a rushed pee break,then quickly returning to it's PC).before pouncing on the poor little moth that just landed. Not a lot of meat on the bones i'll grant you, but maybe worth waiting for. Now you're all probably wondering where the moth found the light bulb in the middle of a forrest? Obviously it flew into the one the bear had turned on,whilst doing the toilet in the bush..Never EVER go to the toilet in the dark. The point i'm making is that there is always varience, and sometimes we play a stupid hand and our donkey wins the race too. Play any cash game for a few hours with the same people and you'll find you'll have to be a rock sometimes. Sometimes a shark and even a fish too. Learning positional play,and card percentages will go a long way to giving you more confidence, combined with a keen intuition and study of other players at the table, and you should be winning, and according to some of the professionals its probably only going to be about 75% - 80% of the time on a perfect game (best percentage of winning based on your held hand before the flop). but that leaves only 25% for bad beats! surely it must be 50%, we'll the other 25% your winning and not losing is made up by all of the above ,and reading the other players. Don't win a little a lot of the time. Win a lot a little of the time. 'And where do bears goto the toilet?' i hear you ask. Just look for the glowing light bulbs in the bushes and you'll find your answer. I should add that these statistics were based on a NLHE 9 seater table, and no Squirrels or Moths were harmed during the making of this thread. [/QUOTE]
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Variance or bad luck - what is the difference?
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