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[QUOTE="AlexTheOwl, post: 4286705, member: 269625"]
Let's take one hand as an example. AA has about 88% equity against 72 offsuit.

If you put AA up against 72 offsuit a million times, the result will almost always be that AA wins very close to 88% of the time.

But if you pick a stretch of 100 hands out of that million, it would not be surprising to see AA win 93% of the time, or 83% of the time. This is variance.

Now suppose I always have 72 offsuit, and you always have AA. Stinks for me. During some 100 hand segments of that million hand sample, I will experience positive variance, meaning I will lose less money than I expected to. During other segments, I will lose more than I expected to.

I always have the worst hand, and you always have the best one. You will always win in the long run. But we both experience both positive and negative variance in small samples.

You are correct to think that you can only suffer a bad beat if you are ahead, but suffering a bad beat is not the same thing as variance. Variance is suffering more bad beats, or less bad beats, in a small sample than one would suffer in a large sample.
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