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Poker Discussion
General Poker
Weird Question about Variance?
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[QUOTE="louaylouay, post: 4287589, member: 133597"] Yes, this is exactly what I mean. I don't mean that you only play AA, as a few people have interpreted it as. I mean if someone ALWAYS gets their money in good. Only playing premiums in position and only putting money in when you hit. Although, statistically, you will win more often than not, you will never, ever, ever hit the true odds of the outcome because you are only seeing negative variance in these situations, since you are only playing positions where you CANNOT draw out or cooler someone. I think this is a better way to give an example: Say you are a 60-40 favorite every time you bet. You're playing in good spots that you have an edge in. The problem is, you will NEVER get the maximum possible value over the long run. You will win the hands you were supposed to win, which is great. You will also sometimes lose hands you were supposed to win, which is unfortunate. My point is that this losing is never, ever offset by winning with worse hands. That's the thing about variance. Variance is accepted, and sometimes loved, because it goes both ways. For every person that has drawn a straight on you, you have the opportunity to draw the straight on them. UNLESS YOU DONT EVER PLAY THAT OPPORTUNITY. Hopefully this clears my question up a bit. [/QUOTE]
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