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[QUOTE="AlexTheOwl, post: 4289303, member: 269625"]
In a large sample your outcome will very likely be similar to the true odds. If you have a forty percent chance of losing, you will lose about forty percent of the time.

You will see both negative and positive variance in small samples. If your true odds are a forty percent chance of losing, don't be surprised if you lose only thirty-five percent of the time (positive variance) or forty-five percent of the time (negative variance) in a sample of one hundred hands.

Whether you are ahead or behind has nothing to do with the type or amount of variance you experience.

How much value you get is mostly dependent on how you play the hands - when to bet, and how much to bet. This has nothing to do with variance.

Over the long term, you will probably win approximately the number of hands you were supposed to win, and lose approximately the number of hands you were supposed to lose.

"Supposed to win" is a strange phrase to apply to an individual hand. You may be favored to win a hand, but you are not "supposed to win". When you are ahead 60/40, you are supposed to lose forty percent of the time. You seem to be using "supposed to win" instead of  "favored to win". They mean different things.

You seem to think your forty percent chance of losing is "variance". It is not. If you look back at your last ten 60/40 situations, and you won six of them, then there is no variance in that sample. If you won all ten hands, that is variance, even though you were ahead in every hand.

Certainly you should play speculative hands when fold equity, pot odds, and implied odds justify it. But that has nothing to do with variance.
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