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Message: [QUOTE="Tonawanda, post: 1421831, member: 63588"] [b]Is There Such a Thing As Luck?[/b] Luck or fortuity is a belief in good or bad fortune in life caused by accident or chance, and attributed by some to reasons of faith or superstition, which happens beyond a person's control. Another view holds that "luck is probability taken personally." A rationalist approach to luck includes the application of the rules of probability, and an avoidance of unscientific beliefs. The rationalist feels the belief in luck is a result of poor reasoning or wishful thinking. To a rationalist, a believer in luck who asserts that something has influenced his or her luck commits the "post hoc ergo propter hoc" logical fallacy: that because two events are connected sequentially, they are connected causally as well. In general: A happens (luck-attracting event or action) and then B happens; Therefore, A influenced B. In the rationalist perspective, probability is only affected by confirmed causal connections. [COLOR=red]The gambler's fallacy and inverse gambler's fallacy both explain some reasoning problems in common beliefs in luck. They involve denying the unpredictability of random events: "I haven't rolled a seven all week, so I'll definitely roll one tonight".[/COLOR] [COLOR=#ff0000][/COLOR] Luck is merely an expression noting an extended period of noted outcomes, completely consistent with random walk probability theory. Wishing one "good luck" will not cause such an extended period, but it expresses positive feelings toward the one—not necessarily wholly undesirable. Since I've always considered myself to be a rationalist, I have to side with the position, there is no such thing as luck. :D [/QUOTE]

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