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[QUOTE="RoyalFish, post: 1333278, member: 49792"]
Ok, so I'll freely admit I have no business at the WSOP, let alone the final table.  Help me understand this.

I'm assuming Moon had nothing at all in his infamous fold.  It was a total bluff, and the all in means (to me) his opp has something.  Maybe opp just hit the board with a low pair, so all he needs is to pair an overcard.  6 outs, assuming he has 2, or around 12%, right?  Which is just about the odds he needs to call, and maybe more than enough with ICM.  I haven't done the math.

If he's facing anything he can't possibly beat (trips, straight), he's dead.  He's also not 12% if he's facing an overpair higher than one or both of his cards, right?

I'm betting when we see this play out, he'll have total air and his error was committing so much in the face of resistance without really having a hand to back it up with.

Obviously the whole world sees his play here as horrible, so I accept that as true, but anybody care to walk me through the numbers?  Is there really nothing he could be holding that is correct to dump?
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