WSOP 2015 - Good Poker Players Know When to Bluff (Negreanu vs Moga)

Hey everyone,

Wanted to share an interesting hand from the wsop 2015 Main Event between Negreanu and Moga.
Hope you enjoy it and I suggest you watch until the end for Phil Laak's analysis of the hand, then we can start our own discussion here as well, could be great

I'm not experienced player, but that's the way I see this hand.
Pre-Flop
Moga bets low, only 19k more then BB which is 16k. Negreanu must've call with his KTo even oop.
Flop
Negreanu as he is great at reading ppl would like to see his reaction - he checks. Moga bet oop preflop very low (18,8% of BB), so now, with 2 high cards Daniel needs to get some information.
Moga bets 30k. That is lower then his previous bet, what makes him look weak at the table right now. Daniel with Broadway drop wants to put some pressure on weak player.
Turn
Daniel checks again, because of third heart and non-hitting his draw.
Moga checks because he isn't sure of the power of his hand. That is another important information for Negreanu
River
Simply Daniel bets high, to get the pot. He knew, Moga isn't sure of his hand, probably a pair, so with Negs' big stack it's normal to put more pressure. Moga fold because he thinks that Canadian have best hand.
He show weakness on flop, and turn, so he woulnd't be able to play agressively with just a pair. It is also possible, that Daniel noticed, Moga is playing tight and agressive, and river bet is his reaction on checked turn.

AAnonimowi said:

I'm not experienced player, but that's the way I see this hand.
Pre-Flop
Moga bets low, only 19k more then BB which is 16k. Negreanu must've call with his KTo even oop.
Flop
Negreanu as he is great at reading ppl would like to see his reaction - he checks. Moga bet oop preflop very low (18,8% of BB), so now, with 2 high cards Daniel needs to get some information.
Moga bets 30k. That is lower then his previous bet, what makes him look weak at the table right now. Daniel with Broadway drop wants to put some pressure on weak player.
Turn
Daniel checks again, because of third heart and non-hitting his draw.
Moga checks because he isn't sure of the power of his hand. That is another important information for Negreanu
River
Simply Daniel bets high, to get the pot. He knew, Moga isn't sure of his hand, probably a pair, so with Negs' big stack it's normal to put more pressure. Moga fold because he thinks that Canadian have best hand.
He show weakness on flop, and turn, so he woulnd't be able to play agressively with just a pair. It is also possible, that Daniel noticed, Moga is playing tight and agressive, and river bet is his reaction on checked turn.

Click to expand...

Thanks for your thoughts of the hand,

As I see it, Moga had to bet the turn after Negreanu checked, he can't give the free card to Negreanu or hope improve his hand on the last hand.

If Negreanu would have raised his turn bet, then he could have folded the hand, but the big mistake was checking right after Negreanu checked the hand...way before the river.

IF I was in mogas position i would have bet again 30k after negreanus checked THE turn (To get more info)...
IF negreanu would have raised again to 85k, i would have called his raise...
Cause
A) when negreanu made à bet 225k(after THE rivier) i would folded my hand.. Just THE same what happend in the video
B) iT could be à check check situation after THE rover with Winning result
C) if negreanu player THE flush draw... Hè would go half his stack

But then again.. Moga did not take à risk al his pov!
So when hè see This video hè would be pissed.

AAnonimowi said:

I'm not experienced player, but that's the way I see this hand.
Pre-Flop
Moga bets low, only 19k more then BB which is 16k. Negreanu must've call with his KTo even oop.
Flop
Negreanu as he is great at reading ppl would like to see his reaction - he checks. Moga bet oop preflop very low (18,8% of BB), so now, with 2 high cards Daniel needs to get some information.
Moga bets 30k. That is lower then his previous bet, what makes him look weak at the table right now. Daniel with Broadway drop wants to put some pressure on weak player.
Turn
Daniel checks again, because of third heart and non-hitting his draw.
Moga checks because he isn't sure of the power of his hand. That is another important information for Negreanu
River
Simply Daniel bets high, to get the pot. He knew, Moga isn't sure of his hand, probably a pair, so with Negs' big stack it's normal to put more pressure. Moga fold because he thinks that Canadian have best hand.
He show weakness on flop, and turn, so he woulnd't be able to play agressively with just a pair. It is also possible, that Daniel noticed, Moga is playing tight and agressive, and river bet is his reaction on checked turn.

Click to expand...

Only part I disagree with is bolded. Moga is playing neither tight nor aggressive. If he was tight, he wouldn't have opened A9o, and if he was aggressive, he wouldn't be betting so small on the flop, calling the flop raise, checking the turn and folding the river.

But I do think that Negreanu played this hand really well. Like you said, he did a lot of "test" actions to try to figure out the strength of his opponent. Negreanu is very good at reading and predicting other players.

Preflop:
-Moga raises with A9o-standard
-Negs calls wit K10s-standard hand to defend with

Flop: 4H-QH-AC
-Negs checks

-Moga bets out a small 30K into the pot which might've worked if Negs had a hand like 67s or J9s.

-Negs check/raises to 85K. This is a great check raise if he thinks Moga has a hand like 1010 or JJ. This raise can either win him the pot there or he can hit on the turn. Also, very likely Negs lets this hand go if Moga 3bets here.

-Moga calls and Negs has to put him on at least an A. It's very unlikely Moga is calling with just a Q.

Turn: [4H-QH-AC]3H
-Negs checks

-Moga checks; very good pot control here. If he bets out, there's a good chance Negs could check/raise again. He is drawing to the nut flush, but if he is behind a better A or a made flush, he'd rather just try and take the free card.

River: [4H-QH-AC-3H]7S
-Negs has to bet here because his hand has no showdown value. If he checks, there is no way Moga betting for value and will check behind. So, a bet here is the only way he can win the pot. The way Moga played the hand, Negs is probably confident Moga has a weak Ace. It's also unlikely that Moga is slow playing a hand like 44 because he lost a lot of value by checking behind on the turn.

So, the only way for Negs to win is to go for a pot-sized bet, which could either mean: A) he has it and is trying to get paid off or B) it's just a bluff. Keep in mind, he's not going for a value bet of 1/3-1/2 pot because that's even easier for Moga to call and see the hand. The pot-sized bet is the only way Negs can apply maximum pressure, without over-betting.

-Moga probably should've called there. Negs isn't showing a lot of hands that beat him in that situation, especially the way the hand played out. Small check/raise on the flop, check turn, pot-sized bet on the river when a 7s comes out? It doesn't make a lot of sense. If Negs did have a hand like AQ/AK, you could expect a 3bet preflop. And if he had a hand like A4 or 44, he very likely would've bet the turn as well. It's unlikely he's playing a hand like 25(even suited) or Q4.

So, Negs is either representing a made flush, a weaker pair like Q10, or air, and Moga beats 2/3. Easy call.

It seems like Daniel's check raise worked in throwing Moga off from being aggressive with his top pair. Moga had top pair (Aces!) in a heads-up situtaion and that is pretty strong, but Moga still let Daniel take a free card. I am a beginner, but that seems like it was a bit weak of Moga.

moga messed up i think not calling but u never know what daniel will do and obvious he did the right thing by making that size raise