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Poker Discussion
General Poker
Are You Afraid Of Chip Leader?
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[QUOTE="WiredKs, post: 5028613, member: 380787"] Let me try to explain the Chip Leaders logic. He’s probably thinking that his preflop odds with ANY random hand place him as a victor at showdown around 25-30% of the time. If he’s limiting his pre-flop donkey shoves to just the top 75% of hands his win % climbs to around 33-38%. That means if he pre-flop shoves 3 out of every 4 hands he’s expected to win 1 in 3 IF HE GETS A CALLER. At later stages of the tournament, when play has tightened up, he probably won’t get a caller every hand, so he’s wining those hands outright, no show down. That means he now expects to win the blinds (and limps) a lot. Maybe more than half the time. He can use the blind wins to mitigate the times he loses at showdown, bust a few players, and look like a maniac. It’s not a terrible idea if everyone at the table has really small stacks. But as soon as you run into a couple of mid-size stacks and double one or two of them, the plan falls apart. Now you can’t steal more blinds than a potential loss against them will cover and you’re playing with fire. I don’t recommend the strategy, but I think that’s the thought process behind it. [/QUOTE]
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Are You Afraid Of Chip Leader?
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