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[QUOTE="RoyalFish, post: 1344168, member: 49792"]
I hear that a lot.  Yes, it's just "one pair", but the PF equity of that one pair is massive.  You can just go all in every time and it's a safe option, but a net losing one because you're not going to get the callers who pay you a bit more when they pair their K, Q, or think their pocket 10s might be good.  Maybe not in microlimits.  There might be enough people there who will call you down often enough to net a profit over just playing the hand out. ;-)  I hear you about slow playing it.  I won't say I never do it, but it's always a calculated risk.  Obviously, if you've played a million hands you know all this better than I do (I'd guess I'm pushing 200,000), so I'm saying all this for the sake of conversation, not to educate -you- in particular.

On a million hands you've got to be converging to the average.  I don't have hard data (yet), but wouldn't be too shocked if the hands that play with your AA when you go all in on the flop are only ones that have you beat or draws with a ~33% chance to beat you.  The real return is definitely influenced by selection bias.  65/35 at showdown doesn't seem implausible.

RF
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