Poker Math: Using and Capitalizing on Fold Equity

Tammy · May 1, 2019

Nearly every bet we make in poker has something to do with fold equity. Often times we size our bets in such a way that will make our opponent fold. Semi-bluffs are particular useful as it combines fold equity with pot equity, which can lead to a more profitable outcome.

But just what is fold equity, and how can you capitalize on it? Our guide explains:

Poker Fold Equity

Are you capitalizing on your fold equity?

Edison A · May 1, 2019

Well, I think that every poker player should know fold equity, help him manage his bankroll and also reduce the risk of losses, the article is great, thanks Tammy...

manzanillo53 · May 1, 2019

I will as soon as I learn what it is. I enjoy playing, but I need to start learning a few more things like this to move my game to the next level.

acidburnfx · May 2, 2019

We try to apply these concepts, however, it is also necessary to verify how the movements of each player are at the moment. In a way that players become better readers, they note that they should fold in certain situations also.

PaxMundi · May 2, 2019

Very important concept that is fundemantal to cbetting and barreling situations to maximize your raw equity and fold equity. It goes along way to ensuring we aren't just cbetting an barreling without good reasons.

ammje · May 2, 2019

Another excellent article, always improve my game when I read articles like this, it is important to know how to use fold equity, whether it is played with deep stack or short stack.

This Fish Chums · May 2, 2019

So, "Fold Equity" is really simply "the likelihood someone else will fold"? The way people talk about it I thought it was some complicated mathematical formula.

So, if someone bets and loses and then says, "I had good Fold Equity", what they are really saying is, "I bet because I thought they would fold and they didn't" or really "I had a bad read on the situation." But they just aren't willing to admit they read the situation wrong.

For me, I prefer to go with the ol', "I bluffed and lost" vs. "I had good Fold Equity". It's way fewer syllables and I'm confident enough in my game that I don't have to hide behind a fancy term.

Huh, also just realized something, I've heard people talking over their hands trying to decide what to do and saying things like, "I have good fold equity here". Does that mean they just told their opponent they were thinking about bluffing?

PaxMundi · May 3, 2019

This Fish Chums said:
For me, I prefer to go with the ol', "I bluffed and lost" vs. "I had good Fold Equity".

But why did you bluff did you have enough fold equity in that spot or did your raw equity increase ?. The same considerations apply for cbetting and barreling vs villains range of hands. You cbet hands where you have enough fold equity and/or raw equity and you barrel spots where your raw equity increases and/or where you still generate enough fold equity. Choosing your bluffs,cbets and barrels out of a grab bag might work sometimes but there is no rhyme or reason behind it. And it's much better to choose betting actions based on solid reasoning that is tried and tested to work mathematically Vs villains range.

Luvart · May 3, 2019

Fold equity is an important concept, although it's a concept that tends mainly towards tournaments.

Anyway, the article provides some solid advice, but I think for beginners there are a bunch of other fundamental concepts that are a bit more important than fold equity. In cash games, and specifically postflop, you can find spots to apply the concept of fold equity.

PaxMundi · May 3, 2019

Luvart said:
Fold equity is an important concept, although it's a concept that tends mainly towards tournaments.

Anyway, the article provides some solid advice, but I think for beginners there are a bunch of other fundamental concepts that are a bit more important than fold equity. In cash games, and specifically postflop, you can find spots to apply the concept of fold equity.

Perhaps preflop it might be more impoartant in tournaments because of the stacks usually being a push fold situation. But postflop it's very much a key aspect in cash games more so than tournaments i would say. Although i agree things like ranges and position come first if your just starting out.

Needleburst3 · May 3, 2019

Fold Equity is important because, If you can people to fold a higher percentage of the time then the percentage of the pot you are betting it will be a profitable move, not only that but you need to incorporate some bluffs so you can get paid off when you have a good hand.

bablovod · May 3, 2019

I read everything carefully. I hope that the understanding of foldequity will help improve my game. Thanks.

RidersFan · May 4, 2019

Another time when fold equity comes into play and is important to understand is during bubble play. Understanding when you have fold equity can lead you to making profitable steals of the blinds. Also when you don’t have fold equity vs an open you can shove in spots where you would normally 3-bet and double, opposed to 3-betting and getting flatted and being put in though spots pre flop.

AndreyMav78 · May 4, 2019

It seems to me that the approach to this term is very academic, which raises certain questions and doubts on this term from the beginning players. However, the meaning of this function is very simple and consists in how much and in what situation to bet. In my opinion, the main point is to make the opponent make a bet that you can pick yourself up (win). The maximum possible in a particular situation. Or, on the contrary, do not bet, which you are likely to lose. It really gives you the opportunity to win both in tournaments and in cash games. I think that only playing practice gives you the opportunity to begin to feel the size of the required bet in a particular hand.

marcumx · May 4, 2019

The size of the raise relative to the pot size matters, and for that reason the math in the example in this article is incorrect. The downside of raising as a semibluff is, that the times, you do get called, you have created a larger pot and therefore stands to lose more, if you have less than 50% equity in that pot (with 1 opponent only). And therefore the total EV of the play is heavily influenced by the size of the raise relative to, what is already in the pot.

chronical · May 5, 2019

TY for a agreat article!
Now it's time to try and implement in the game.
I guess the thing that matters the most is who youy are playing aginst. Sometimes you can see limp calls for 40bb with some.... questionable hands =)
But have top love the math pat about it!

Bozovicdj · May 5, 2019

Just like the previous articles, It is good and substantial, but players shouldn't get over-excited about trying to figure out someone's fold to 3-bet 4-bet percentage. I mean it is impossible to calculate it live, or online unless you are using a HUD.

Basically, just like I commented on previous strategy threads, it all comes down to one's ability to figure out villain's range of hands based on betting pattern, general behavior at the table and other info regarding the particular player.

tauri103 · May 5, 2019

thanks for the article. he summarizes my favorite game style. it's not the cards we have that matter but how we play them. This is the essence of tournament play. what is difficult is to determine this fold equity and use it to his advantage. Targeted flights, against theft, isolation, abusive play on shortstacks, or the bubble, floating, ... all these moves that make the beauty of the game in tournament and make us scream with joy when they succeed, or despair when they pass not and we are caught with a foul trash in hand, all these moves essential to be successful in poker.

PsychoVas · May 5, 2019

Good, comprehensive, short and to the point article.
As I still cannot figure out how to use my HUD, I can only testify for the last section. I mean that in our games, where everybody knows that I'm tight "as a nun's knickers" as a friend called it, I sometimes find my fold equity to be even unwanted. I mean: "come ooon, a 3x bet for my rockets is not that much! Why do you all fold?"

BentleyBoy · May 6, 2019

Knowledge of your opponents tendencies is always of great help when making decisions in poker. I think above all else, this article reinforces the fact that poker is not just about what you have in your hands, but is a whole host of considerations that have nothing to do with your own two cards.

Knowing the likelihood of your opponent to folding to a bet is key to making a profit in poker.

bbennie1 · May 6, 2019

"Your own statistics and image also effect your fold equity."

This is something that I never really took into consideration when I started. It's very important to understand what you are representing and how your opponents perceive you.

Bev · May 6, 2019

Folding is part of the game , if your opponent is betting their stack - then you should take a long hard look at your hand and ask is it strong enough ?
If they are betting allin before the flop - then it should be ano brainer if you want to play the lottery .
If there is a good flop, turn , before the river , and they are still betting - then assess your hand and you have to figure out the outs that they may have and yours ... so how much do you want to pay if you have the "Chance" on the River ?
Sometimes it is better to just let them have it , even if you just folded the winning hand ( which I have done too many times to count )
Now if you are betting and the other is calling , you better have a good hand to carry it to the end.
If you don't have the "Nuts" then , And if you started this betting - then you better keep betting like you have it ! Hopefully you knock them off their hand and they fold - to me that would be folding equity - as you win the pot

bruno13xs · May 6, 2019

Very good item even cardschat always teaching me new things about poker, so I'm evolving more and more my game. Muto and learning with the required cardschat

NWPatriot · May 6, 2019

Tammy said:
Nearly every bet we make in poker has something to do with fold equity. Often times we size our bets in such a way that will make our opponent fold. Semi-bluffs are particular useful as it combines fold equity with pot equity, which can lead to a more profitable outcome.

But just what is fold equity, and how can you capitalize on it? Our guide explains:

Poker Fold Equity

Are you capitalizing on your fold equity?

Good conceptual discussion about fold equity. What seems to be missing is the real application of how to use it. (no calculation examples).

So, consider the following couple examples:

on the flop, I figure i have about 60% equity with my pair, and I figure my opponent folds 50% of the time to my bet, how do i really combine these together?
on the flop, i figure i have about 40% equity with my missed flop with two overcards, I figure my opponent folds 33% of the time to my bet, how do i really combine these together?

I get using MDF (minimum defence frequency) to determine where my EV neutral play is for both of the fold percentages above, but the article stated that "The profitability of any bet is made up by your perceived fold equity combined with your pot equity (Percentage share you have of winning the pot at that moment)." How exactly are these values combined is my real question? in the first example, it makes little sense to me to simply add 60% + 50% and come up with 110%.

If the pot is 500 chips, then

example 1: I have 300 chips equity in the pot with my 60% hand equity, if my opponent will fold 50% of his 200 chip equity (500-300=200), then i can add 100 chips (50% of 200) to my pot equity for 400 chips equity???? This means my "fold adjusted equity" is 80%???
example 2: I have 200 chips equity in the pot with my 40% hand equity, if my opponent will fold 33% of his 300 chip equity (500-200=300), then i can add 100 chips (33% of 100) to my pot equity for 300 chips equity???? This means my "fold adjusted equity" is 60%???

If so, then the formula is "equity + ((1 - equity) x OppFoldEquity) = adjusted fold equity"
.60+((1-.60)x.50 = .60+(.4x.5) = .60+.2 = .80 for the first example

So then what?

XYZ2123 · May 6, 2019

A good article that clearly and concisely explains the concept. Fold equity is definitely important. I see it applied effectively by those playing mid to high stakes MTTs on Twitch etc., but it rarely seems to apply in low stakes or freerolls, where its difficult to have accurate stats and/or good reads on opponents, and where opponents don't respect raises. You really have to pick your spots carefully when basing actions solely on fold equity.

Poker Math: Using and Capitalizing on Fold Equity

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