These writings are about MTT or satellite tournament play. It's important to make this clear because I might play certain hands differently in a SNG cash game. I regret the length of this answer, but I find some people have a simple way of stating things, while others like me make more complicated statements. What is important, however, is, that each in their own way probably make the same points. You probably already know a lot about what I am writing, and I am mainly looking at position and what I can put an opponent on, but here goes.
Whenever I see AA, KK and QQ in Texas Hold'em, warning lights go off in my head. AA and KK, especially the former, are the real superpower pairs in hole cards. Each has an 83% chance of being the winning hand. That means they will win 8,300 out of every 10,000 hands played. This also means they will lose 17% of the time, or 1,700 times out of every 10,000 hands played. In the long run, AA or KK win. In the short run, they can lose - maybe all day long!
QQ is the third most powerful pairing of the hole cards, and it will form the best hand 7,900 out of 10,000 hands played. So, there is a 79% chance of winning a hand if playing with QQ. This also means that there is a 21% chance of losing. Thusly, winning is not ever to be taken for granted no matter what cards are being played, and it follows that there is a huge responsibility to play QQ wisely. That 21% chance of QQ losing, just like the 17% chance of AA or KK losing can happen all day. It also means a player has a better chance of losing when going all-in with QQ than with either AA or KK.
AKs or AKos as hole cards also warrant warning lights. Just like AA, KK, and QQ, the top non-paired hole cards like AKs or AKos usually signal high bets and the potential to win or lose big. AKs as hole cards have a 67% chance of forming the winning hand and AKos as hole cards have a 64% chance. By training, I read top hole cards backwards to remind myself of their initial value. For example, AKos or AKs is just the highest single face card with the highest, single non-ace, face kicker, unsuited or suited. AKs has a slightly more winning percentage value because it might later become a flush whereas AKos might later become a straight. In either case, whenever an all-in potential presents itself pre-flop, my inner banker runs for the safety of the vault.
Top hole cards all come with their own built-in dangers, most especially when the plan is to go all-in. The problem with QQ is there might be a KK, and the trouble with a KK is there might be an AA. Going all-in pre-flop, however tempting, no matter what cards are being played, is always a threat to the
bankroll or, usually, to a good part of it. That is why many players settle for a slice - rather than going all-in to get the whole pie.
Now that the foregoing has been said, we face the question: "When to let go of KK, QQ, AK, AA preflop?" I am re-arranging the cards for simplicity. So the question becomes, "When to let go of QQ, AK, KK, AA pre-flop?"
QQ: - QQ is not the hand many people think. Sure, it has a 79% chance of winning. But, it's not an AA or KK. I do not rate QQ as a better starting hand than an AK, suited or not, regardless of its chance of a winning differential of approximately 79-67%. If I played QQ pre-flop, I would do so from a late position only - the later the better - so I could see the table action going on ahead of me. If too many players made high raises and re-raises, or simply shoved all-in, then I would know that I was probably dealing with aces or kings. To my way of thinking, this would be a good enough reason to let go of my QQ pre-flop.
AKos/AKs: - AK, suited or unsuited, is a better starting hand than QQ. Why? They have a better chance of drawing to one pair or the other, and beating QQ, than the latter has of drawing to trips in order to beat the former. AKs, as hole cards, have a 67% chance of forming the winning hand and AKos, as hole cards, have a 64% chance. So, AKs is superior to AKos for reasons mentioned earlier. Like QQ, AKos and AKs are not either AA or KK, and in my opinion, at least, they should not be played in the same way. Just like QQ, I would prefer to play either AKos or AKs from a later position. A middle position is barely acceptable from which to play. It comes with blinders because middle position players cannot tell what players in later positions will do. Nonetheless, I would be watching for high bets, raises, re-raises or all-ins from earlier positions. Early high bets would induce me to fold pre-flop although the books of many authors call for raising and re-raising with cards such as AK, suited or unsuited. I would fold because such bets tell me that I am likely facing either an AA or a KK.
KK: - So, this brings us to the question of when to fold KK pre-flop. KK hole cards have an 83% chance of forming the winning hand. That means they will win - a lot - a whole lot of times. Unless you can place an opponent on AA, the only reason that I can possibly think of for folding KK pre-flop is if you are on the bubble, and, by folding, you guarantee yourself a place in the money. I can think of no other reason for folding KK pre-flop.
AA: - Finally, we are looking at when to fold AA pre-flop. Normally, I would never fold AA pre-flop. I have read articles saying that, if you are on the bubble like KK above, folding is good strategy if, by doing so, you guarantee yourself a place in the money. TimovieMan once said. "with more people in the pot, the
odds of you winning the hand get smaller..." He also stated, "Fold AA pre-flop on the bubble in satellites with multiple opponents all-in, or when... pay-jumps are significant and several people went all-in before you." Be that as it may, I might just go for it all. But, I would have to think about doing so very carefully. I, like many other players, have lost with AA before. In the end, it is a very tough choice - and, I guess I would have to be in that moment in a game before I finally made my mind up.
:lollypop:
