*****CardsChat Cash Thread*****

[xdeucesx]

Baller moment of the day:

Went to the bank after playing live last night. I just had a rubber band around it and I know the teller (she graduated with me), so we were chatting when I got up to her little desk area.

Told her I was depositing and she asked me,

"how much"

and it hit me...I didn't know how much was in the roll of bills. I said, "Idk" and she gave me the oddest look, a look with a mix of impression and disgust, like how much of a degen are you.

Turned out to be 4.6k in a mix of 20/50/100's lol. She then suggested I switch over my savings to a MMA, which I accepted so I could get that extra .25% of interest per year.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

You guys tend to think people are stronger than they are in every close spot. Like every spot

You don't play small stakes live no limit though? Don't you only play NL at the 5/10+ level?

Fwiw I would have puked and still called that spot but it's cause I'm bad, not cause it was the right call. It can easily be a correct fold there imo depending on player.

 

[duggs]

You don't play small stakes live no limit though? Don't you only play NL at the 5/10+ level?

Fwiw I would have puked and still called that spot but it's cause I'm bad, not cause it was the right call. It can easily be a correct fold there imo depending on player.

i also looked at it and didnt want to fold. Its just hard from him to fold overpairs there, but then again its hard for him to be cold calling KK tho, If he is playing preflop that passively looks like a slamdunk jam tho

 

[duggs]

Like lets remember if it goes in 3 ways we only need 25% equity to make it ok when it all goes in. lets assume we average 85% equity v fish when its HU

EV fold= 0

EV call = X(-160 *(1-Y) + 645*Y) + (1-X)(.85* 485 -.15(160))

Are we really claiming both X is 1 and Y is less than 25%? 2 combos of ovepairs beat gets us to 23.6 which is knocking on the door, 3 combos gets us to 29 which turns into a pretty happy call.

Alternatively lets assume he only has sets when the money goes, then its going to be about 10% equity so it becomes

EVcall= X(-144+64) +(1-X)(412-73)

EVcall= X(-100) - 339X +339

EVcall>EVfold => X</= 339/439= 77%.

(thats not even acknowledging the fish, but he has both lots of 1pairs which will reduce set combos, and also sometimes out draw us 3 ways, so i think it ends up helping us but i called it a wash)

Im very sceptical that both X and Y are sufficently extreme that this turns into a fold.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

It's kind of impossible for us to know that the villain can have QQ/KK here though, right?

I'm not saying there's no time I would ever gladly call off here, but from the way Sand described the villain, and my understanding of typical live games, it was really hard for me to imagine the reg ever having a worse hand. (Mostly because he didn't 3b pre and his clear willingness to gii vs fish AND Sand.)

I was too groggy to parse out the math so I just did it from scratch against both players.

Flop Pot = $49 (but after rake it’s going to be $43)

We bet $40, drunk guy snap ships $200, and thinking player calls the $40, essentially implying he’s always calling the extra $160.

So we need to call an extra $160 to win the $200 from the drunk guy and thinking player, plus our $40 we already put in, plus the $43 post-rake from the pot. This comes to $483. (I’m assuming we’re not deeper than $200 with the thinking player.)

Calling $160 to win $483, means we need 160/(483+160) = ~24.9% equity needed.

If we give the drunk guy a range of 9x of 97+, 95s, JJ, TT, 88, 77, 87, 75, and 53. Frankly, I think this is a little generous even for a drunk guy usually, but it’s probably an okay estimate. Our equity against that range doesn’t change tons if we add or take away some combos of straight draws.

I gave the thinking player all combos of sets, and varying combos of overpairs. There are TT-KK, each with 6 combos, so potentially 24 combos of overpairs. But the problem is that I never would have given him QQ-KK preflop. Literally zero combos from preflop. And I think the lower his overpair, the less likely he is to stack off... I think people are pretty likely to sigh-fold TT or even JJ in that spot. So it's hard for me to even give any combos.

But if he has 3 combos of TT and no other overpairs, we should fold but it's really close. If he has 4 combos we can call profitably. Anything more and it's an obvious slamdunk call. But if he has no overpair combos we have ~8.4% equity and have to fold.

So whether we got unlucky that he had overpairs in this spot, or had a misread on the probability that he could have overpairs in this spot is up for debate I suppose.

 

[Mr Sandbag]

He had 3b me in previous hands so I gave him zero credit for QQ+ and thought he'd even 3b JJ at least some of the time. I also think it's extremely optimistic for him to not fold TT like all the time here and JJ most of the time considering he only beats TT. Even if he 3b only 1 combo of JJ pre that leaves 5 combos, and if he calls with 60% of them that's still only 3 combos. But tbh I'm not even sure he's calling the $40 with JJ at all.

 

[duggs]

He had 3b me in previous hands so I gave him zero credit for QQ+ and thought he'd even 3b JJ at least some of the time. I also think it's extremely optimistic for him to not fold TT like all the time here and JJ most of the time considering he only beats TT. Even if he 3b only 1 combo of JJ pre that leaves 5 combos, and if he calls with 60% of them that's still only 3 combos. But tbh I'm not even sure he's calling the $40 with JJ at all.

the non 3bet is weird, but are we really expecting him to fold overpairs to a pot sized cbet 3 way with a whale donating? I dont see how we only ever have the nuts here????

 

[duggs]

Like there is something fundamentally wrong with our bet sizing if the guy reads our range perfectly, if we really only ever have nuts here then why have we sized it like this? its not necessary to get stacks in, and if it dramatically strengthens our range to the point that a dec player is folding overpairs to a single cbet(and doing so correctly) then we are playing this spot fundamentally incorrectly

 

[WVHillbilly]

Like there is something fundamentally wrong with our bet sizing if the guy reads our range perfectly, if we really only ever have nuts here then why have we sized it like this? its not necessary to get stacks in, and if it dramatically strengthens our range to the point that a dec player is folding overpairs to a single cbet(and doing so correctly) then we are playing this spot fundamentally incorrectly

As the hand played out though he wouldn't be folding to just a cbet because of the drunk guy acting out of turn he'd be folding those overpairs to the $200 shove.

 

[duggs]

As the hand played out though he wouldn't be folding to just a cbet because of the drunk guy acting out of turn he'd be folding those overpairs to the $200 shove.

yea for sure, but assuming we fold 100% there are other hands he would call with right?

 

[Matt Vaughan]

He can't assume we're folding even a high % of our range because we shouldn't be cbetting as much air in this spot against the drunk guy, right?

But now you're basically saying that he has a range that calls the $40 planning to stack against the drunk guy but not us? If so, what does his call/fold when we call range look like?

 

[Mr Sandbag]

i dont think many live players have a call/fold range there.

 

[Gh0stL]

How do

How did you doing when you lose for most bad beats?

 

[WVHillbilly]

Losing for most bad beats is much better than winning for most bad beats.

 

[hackmeplz]

Every time I hear/read that, I want to reply with this.

Don't want to get into a political discussion in this thread especially when I haven't posted here in weeks but this is one of the most retarded videos ever and the only people who I see seriously post it (sorry if you were trolling) are people who have no knowledge of any facts or statistics and just want an excuse to hate the US and seem intelligent.

You don't play small stakes live no limit though? Don't you only play NL at the 5/10+ level?

Fwiw I would have puked and still called that spot but it's cause I'm bad, not cause it was the right call. It can easily be a correct fold there imo depending on player.

It's been a long time since I've played lower than 5/10 less than 5 beers in but when my roomate tells me about 1/2 live hands so many times I'm like "sucks but fold he has it every time" and they'll have the most random shit so often like hand from the other night ch/r bet shove with TT on J3228 and he gets tilted because the other guy has 2x and he "knew he didn't have a jack that's why he raised the flop". This play seems to be standard and from regs too.

 

[hackmeplz]

As for my thoughts on the hand:

I raise to $15 with AA.

Middle aged decent thinking player to my immediate left calls, and drunk guy calls.

Flop 9 6 4 rainbow

Drunk guy checks.
I bet $40.
Drunk guy snap-jams $200 out of turn.
MAWG asks dealer if drunk guy's act is binding and dealer says it is if action doesn't change. He thinks for a bit and flats the $40, committing drunk guy to his $200 jam.

Think about how you feel in games like these if you're the MAWG. You have a drunk guy who's spewing money you're trying to get all his money right? So now you have him shoving and you're probably struggling to fold 98 here. I know you or I would and he might fold 98 after hemming and hawing for a bit but there's really no ****ing way he's folding TT and most likely not folding A9+. I think in your spot my cutoff might be TT but even then I'm probably not folding just because there's a good chance he's tilting (it's live poker, 90% of people are on some form of tilt lol) and in that case he's probably calling super wide with a drunk guy in the pot and if you know you're calling super wide are you really about to fold top pair when that's the only reason you called pre to stack this guy who just committed all his chips? idk I just don't think it's particularly close if you got unlucky enough to run into a set for 100bb in a spot where there's essentially 100bb dead money then whatever good for him. There's just no way AA is behind his range unless you can confirm he is the nittiest of nits.

 

[Marginal]

You don't play small stakes live no limit though? Don't you only play NL at the 5/10+ level?
.

How is this even close to relevant? If Doug Polk came in here giving you HUNL advise on a 50nl hand would you say he doesn't play less than 10/20?

I know im not doug polk but you see where this is a dumb thing to mention.

Plus I stand by my observation. Every hand that I see posted on these forums, everyone is folding and everyone is putting people on the top of their range in every spot. Its human nature where we don't want to be wrong so we take the passive route.

 

[TimovieMan]

Don't want to get into a political discussion in this thread especially when I haven't posted here in weeks but this is one of the most retarded videos ever and the only people who I see seriously post it (sorry if you were trolling) are people who have no knowledge of any facts or statistics and just want an excuse to hate the US and seem intelligent.

I wasn't trolling, but I was joking.


Much less joking: "people who have no knowledge of any facts or statistics" - like Donald Trump?


Yeah, no need to get into an off-topic political discussion here. There's a massive tl;dr thread on Trump in the Lounge subforum for that.


[/off-topic]

 

[Matt Vaughan]

How is this even close to relevant? If Doug Polk came in here giving you HUNL advise on a 50nl hand would you say he doesn't play less than 10/20?

I know im not doug polk but you see where this is a dumb thing to mention.

Plus I stand by my observation. Every hand that I see posted on these forums, everyone is folding and everyone is putting people on the top of their range in every spot. Its human nature where we don't want to be wrong so we take the passive route.

HUNL advice on a 50nl hand is prob more relevant for someone though. Maybe I'm kidding myself but the tendency differences down at the lowest NL game in the room seems pretty different. I could just be over-estimating the differences though.

And fwiw I tend to call too wide and I'm wrong a lot, so I don't really care about any of that. I have been known to post all my ****-up hands, and take credit for the stupidity in both the play and analysis. Point being if I'm wrong I'm wrong. I just happen to get burned a lot in spots kind of like this where I convince myself they have to have worse hands in their range because how could they fold so many things AND be so passive pre, etc. But then they end up having it.

Also I will admit that when I first looked at this spot I thought we were deeper with the thinking player, and I mis-estimated the math. Like I thought we needed more like 30% equity. In any case your observation is definitely correct, and in general follows the trend of poker players in general - not just on this forum. CC average skill is prob higher than average player at the same stakes by a little, but the same tendencies definitely exist.

 

[Mr Sandbag]

It's been a long time since I've played lower than 5/10 less than 5 beers in but when my roomate tells me about 1/2 live hands so many times I'm like "sucks but fold he has it every time" and they'll have the most random shit so often like hand from the other night ch/r bet shove with TT on J3228 and he gets tilted because the other guy has 2x and he "knew he didn't have a jack that's why he raised the flop". This play seems to be standard and from regs too.

Maybe it's a location thing, but plays like that aren't standard here. But Cleveland is one big old grumpy nit itself.

 

[Mr Sandbag]

Go tap the fish tank:

How To Guide: Donking It Off At The 2016 WSOP [RAIL THREAD]

 

[xdeucesx]

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/pok...25nl-staking-extravaganza-293885/#post3071837

Give it some love please

 

[xdeucesx]

Happy 4th of July....U mad Britain?

 

[Ducky7]

how does one become a poker guru.

Hi all long time

 

[Ducky7]

And no... no one is mad about this

Ever... lol