this post is just me trying to articulate my thoughts on an afternoon.
PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
MP: $12.05 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 10.42, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 49)
CO: $25.00 (VPIP: 16.94, PFR: 10.93, 3Bet Preflop: 1.45, Hands: 187)
BTN: $28.75 (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 90)
Hero (SB): $34.54
BB: $20.00 (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
UTG: $15.56 (VPIP: 25.86, PFR: 6.90, 3Bet Preflop: 3.33, Hands: 63)
Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has Q:club: Q:spade:
fold,
fold,
fold,
BTN raises to $0.62,
Hero raises to $2.00,
fold, BTN calls $1.38
Flop: ($4.25, 2 players) 2:spade: 9:club: 4:spade:
Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50
Turn: ($9.25, 2 players) 7:diamond:
Hero?
yeah, here's a spot I’m finding myself in a fair bit.. the standard line here is bet, bet, bet, but I feel like a lot of regs are going to fold turns/rivers a lot to this line and so I miss out on value.
other lines I could take are bet, x/j or bet, x/c, x/c.
bet x/c x/c relies a lot on villains barrelling/value betting here with worse (mainly TT/JJ) this probably works for one street but most regs are going to check rivers back with anything with decent SDV and a lot of their air since its hard for me to take this line with anything that will fold to a river barrel.
this isn’t bad since 2 streets of value in a 3bet pot is a decent amount (in the example above if I x/c turn the pot is around 80bbs) but..
we also need to consider the fact that bad rivers could come (primarily A/K) and improve villains to the best hand or give villains something to
bluff shove at. so bet x/c x/c leaves us in some tough spots on rivers where we can’t get value from worse too often and in the case that a ‘scare card’ comes we’ll be playing guessing games for stacks.
bet x/j appeals the most to me since it allows us to be balanced in this spot in the future, when we bet flops and check turns we aren’t always giving up on the pot which means regs will be more wary of floating us and stabbing turns 100%. we get value from villains floats, some of our semi-bluffs can take this line and we don't have to see rivers which is my main problem with b x/c x/c.
I guess it comes down to how often regs are bet/calling the turn with worse.
thoughts?