Hypothetical WSOP card-reading software question (lol)

[blankoblanco]

If you're smart enough to know how to use this to its full ability, I have no doubt the percentage to win outright should be something like 90-99%. Your edge would just be absolutely ridiculous. But it's hard for me to guess how well an "average" player would use this ability.

 

[blankoblanco]

So there we are, at the final table. If we are going to guarantee ourselves a win using our special gadget or whatever, we must never go all-in before the river or we run the risk of being outdrawn.

You don't suppose someone, at some point, is going to notice that we're a bit, eh, weak-tight? "Hey, if I move all-in, this here fella folds!" Or worse, any large flop bet is usually enough to scare us off since we might be pot committed if we call. I'm not saying we don't stand a good chance; I'm merely suggesting that we're not better than 50% to win.

We should have built up a monstrous stack all throughout the tournament with these abilities to the point where we'll have the biggest stack or be among the biggest stacks at the final table. We can call all-ins with cards to come when we see we have a big enough edge against stacks that are small enough to wreck us; it should be enough to keep others from thinking they can just shove and we're gone. Is an "average" player in question smart enough to pull this off at least decently? I should hope so.

Plus, I think you may be overestimating the amount of times players are going to just straight shove all-in on a bluff at the FT of a tournament with this kind of structure. I doubt it would get to the point where everyone thinks "oh, if I just shove he folds"... if it happens two or three times they'll likely just figure we had crap that hand, and after that point they'll likely think we may be getting "fed up" with it and won't want to press their luck.

 

[titans4ever]

Even if you are a big stack, the small stacks won't have enough chips to play to the river. Once you start the final 20 or 30 they are the ones pushing all-in. You won't get to control them to the river. You will still only make calls when ahead but most all-in preflops are 50/50 or 60/40. How do you control the whole tournament to the end without knocking out people with preflop all-ins? Heads up, you don't think the shortstack will just push preflop. You can see his cards and know you are ahead but even AA gets cracked. No way can you say 90%.

I would notice in a hour or two if you kept folding to big bets. It would not take any expert to see this live when there is nothing else going on around you. You only call if you have the nuts or close to it, that will get taken advantage of eventually. Calling all bluff would get noticed too and any decent player will notice that after awhile. You would have to let one get by you to show you are not bullet proof.

 

[blankoblanco]

Why are people acting like we're always going to be in situations where shortstacks will get the chance to shove all their chips in when they're behind? We can easily maneuver ourselves into situations where WE'RE the ones shoving when we know our opponent can't possibly call (i.e. opponent has 89clubs, flop AK4 rainbow, or the million other ways you can completely whiff a flop to the point where he can't possibly call even if he knows you're bullying).

If you knew what you were doing, it would be pretty easy and likely to get yourself into numerous spots where you can be the one pushing the chips in, knowing your opponent will fold well over 95% of the time (and even when they call you're a favorite). I still think people are greatly underestimating the versatility of this power.

 

[Kennyseven]

.0000000000001%

I might as well ask since there is a probababily that you might actually have this software. Can I get it for free?

 

[joeeagles]

I agree with you combuboom, that's why i say 99%, leaving out that 1% chance where something totally crazy happens.

 

[aliengenius]

Two points:
1. Our ability to build a huge stack from the beginning of the tournament should allow us to race the short stacks (who can't hurt us too badly even if we lose) with a 60/40 or better advantage in the later stages of the tournament.
2. We have fold equity as well (to non all in raises). So you can't just start making "strong raises" to get us to fold prefolp-- we just see when you are out of line and come back over the top, making you the one that folds.

 

[hott_estelle]

congratulations, you won my topic! ~DM


Didn't know it was a contest but, wheeeeee, does that mean I win the DM "Approved and Perfected Hole Cards Revealed Sunglasses" for the next Main Event??

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Nah, you just win some rep for saving me the hassle of writing a long-winded follow-up post.

I think it's clearly >90%, for reasons already stated by Estelle and combuboom. We start off deepstacked, and there's no reason, given our 'gift', that we need ever become shortstacked. We can keep pots small and manageable preflop, and steal blinds when everyone behind us has junk in order to keep our stack ticking over.

As long as we vaguely know and understand what we're doing (I understand how pointing out that we should treat ourselves as a completely 'average' player could cause problems), it should be very difficult for us to lose.

 

[joeeagles]

Lol, now that I read Estelle's 1st post, did Jamie Gold maybe...?

 

[NineLions]

Yep, we should be able to safely build our stack early, keep ahead of almost everyone else, and NEVER go all-in except at the river or you're sure your opponent is drawing dead.