IPlay said:
Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) K<font color='red'>♦</font> T<font color='black'>♠</font> 6<font color='red'>♥</font>
Hero checks, BTN bets 3.5 BB, Hero calls 3.5 BB
Turn: (13.5 BB, 2 players) 9<font color='black'>♠</font>
Hero checks, BTN bets 7.5 BB, Hero raises to 26.5 BB, BTN raises to 50 BB, Hero raises to 163.5 BB, BTN calls 37.5 BB and is all-in
River: (188.5 BB, 2 players) 2<font color='black'>♣</font>
Problem is youre in bad shape vs his value range bc QJ and 87 are a ton of combos and he's opening them all offsuit on the btn.
equity Win Tie
MP2 30.89% 30.89% 0.00% Kc9c
MP3 69.11% 69.11% 0.00% KK+, TT-99, 66, KTs, QJs, T9s, 96s, 87s, KTo, QJo, T9o, 96o, 87o
you have to throw in a ton of pair+draw's to make it a slam dunk
Equity Win Tie
MP2 52.71% 52.71% 0.00% Kc9c
MP3 47.29% 47.29% 0.00% KK+, TT-99, 66, KTs, QJs, T9s, 96s, QdTd, QsTs, JdTd, JsTs, Qd9d, Qs9s, Jd9d, Js9s, Jd8d, Js8s, Td8d, Ts8s, 9d8d, 9s8s, 9d7d, 9s7s, 8d7d, 8s7s, 8d6d, 8s6s, 7d6d, 7s6s, 7d5d, 7s5s, KTo, QJo, T9o, 96o+, 86o+, 76o
Assuming he never folds to your jam you need 87.5÷(94×2)= ~46.5% equity vs his range.
I think its a jam or soul read fold, either way its a pretty thin edge imo. I think reading too much into metagame is a leak and it never works out for me, so I think his 3bet range on the turn is probably a lot stronger than you think even though he 3 barreled into quads earlier.