Polished Poker Vol. I Study Group

[Fisi]

I assume everyone who is following the thread is good on the first couple of points on improving and polishing your game. If we're good, then I'll move on to next points.

Please do

 

[Sneaky Feet]

As good as I can be for now.

 

[Fisi]

Hey John, I've got a few questions about the HitMan HUD.

There are two things I miss after switching over to the Hitman HUD. First is the amount that villains fold against a steal. Do you estimate this only based on VPIP? The second one I miss is WTSD%. Did you left this one out because it takes too long for it to normalize? Also, how can you generally estimate how light is our opponent calling us down if you have no WTSD? Do you estimate that by looking at player types mostly?

 

[John A]

Hey John, I've got a few questions about the HitMan HUD.

There are two things I miss after switching over to the Hitman HUD. First is the amount that villains fold against a steal. Do you estimate this only based on VPIP? The second one I miss is WTSD%. Did you left this one out because it takes too long for it to normalize? Also, how can you generally estimate how light is our opponent calling us down if you have no WTSD? Do you estimate that by looking at player types mostly?

Sure...

Fold to a steal, not relevant info. You can guesstimate this based on the type of player they are categorizing into. The nittier they are, the more often they are folding. If you had this stat before, it's removable.

WTSD% also is irrelevant. It takes a long time to normalize, and you'll know based on the other stats, and again, what category someone is the likelihood they they are going to showdown too much (not folding mediocre hands), or not enough.

So yes, if you follow those player types, you're going to be able to make better guesstimates about those kinds of stats. You can always add other things and modify the hud, but mostly a lot of the info people have in their huds is near useless. You want to use a small group of stats/info, and player type someone so that you can work on exploiting them. Most of the stats in players huds, you'd need 60k+ hands on someone for it to be somewhat relevant and reliable.

 

[Stretch84]

Hello John, I been following along only thing I don't understand is RFI what does it mean? I use total steal and fold to steal, is this the same or should I be using RFI stats. Also I've been trying to use your equity calculator, do you have videos on how to use hands from database. I have just been putting in random hands to get some numbers, which I am sure I'm missing out on a whole lot.

 

[Fisi]

Sure...

Fold to a steal, not relevant info. You can guesstimate this based on the type of player they are categorizing into. The nittier they are, the more often they are folding. If you had this stat before, it's removable.

WTSD% also is irrelevant. It takes a long time to normalize, and you'll know based on the other stats, and again, what category someone is the likelihood they they are going to showdown too much (not folding mediocre hands), or not enough.

So yes, if you follow those player types, you're going to be able to make better guesstimates about those kinds of stats. You can always add other things and modify the hud, but mostly a lot of the info people have in their huds is near useless. You want to use a small group of stats/info, and player type someone so that you can work on exploiting them. Most of the stats in players huds, you'd need 60k+ hands on someone for it to be somewhat relevant and reliable.

Great! Thanks!

 

[Figaroo2]

John your advice on this one would be appreciated Thanks.

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/15/2

I have been at a 25nk full ring table for about 50 hands. The player to my left is a bit aggro preflop. I have seen him 3bet twice against single raises and squeeze twice from the blinds. No hands get to showdown.
I have already spawned a plan to try and trap him if I get an opportunity.
He is about 125bb and I have 110. I have been playing quite a few hands as id picked up several pairs in close succession and might appear a little loose to the table.
A hand is dealt whereby it folds to the CO who raises x3. I have QQ in the SB.
So I flat expecting the BB to squeeze and he does betting 12bb ($3) over the pot of 7.5bb $1.85. Co foldss.
So what is our best raise sizing now bearing in mind we have QQ? . I intend to stack off if he rejams.
I was unsure just how to size it and actually 4 bet $8 and he flat called. It felt too big but with QQ i wanted to end it and not have to face over cards on a flop oop.
The flop came J 56 and I shoved and he called and flipped over AA. I dont mind losing to the aces but was annoyed I wasnt sure of my bet sizing.

 

[John A]

Hello John, I been following along only thing I don't understand is RFI what does it mean? I use total steal and fold to steal, is this the same or should I be using RFI stats. Also I've been trying to use your equity calculator, do you have videos on how to use hands from database. I have just been putting in random hands to get some numbers, which I am sure I'm missing out on a whole lot.

RFI = raise first in. So it's the percentage of hands you're opening if the pot is not opened yet.

There should be a tutorial video in the calculator. Maybe it's in the ace poker drills part actually. If you just have the calculator separate, you can also download the software (the odds and outs trainer is free on there too), and there's several tutorial videos that should help. But if you have any other specific questions, you can just let me know and I'll do my best to help.

 

[John A]

John your advice on this one would be appreciated Thanks.

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/15/2

I have been at a 25nk full ring table for about 50 hands. The player to my left is a bit aggro preflop. I have seen him 3bet twice against single raises and squeeze twice from the blinds. No hands get to showdown.
I have already spawned a plan to try and trap him if I get an opportunity.
He is about 125bb and I have 110. I have been playing quite a few hands as id picked up several pairs in close succession and might appear a little loose to the table.
A hand is dealt whereby it folds to the CO who raises x3. I have QQ in the SB.
So I flat expecting the BB to squeeze and he does betting 12bb ($3) over the pot of 7.5bb $1.85. Co foldss.
So what is our best raise sizing now bearing in mind we have QQ? . I intend to stack off if he rejams.
I was unsure just how to size it and actually 4 bet $8 and he flat called. It felt too big but with QQ i wanted to end it and not have to face over cards on a flop oop.
The flop came J 56 and I shoved and he called and flipped over AA. I dont mind losing to the aces but was annoyed I wasnt sure of my bet sizing.

Yeah, that's a little tough sizing wise, but ~7-7.5 is fine. You always want to try and keep your 4-bets somewhere around 23-30% (assuming around 100bbs).

One small note though, I wouldn't assume too much too quick if he's 3-bet twice and squeezed twice. 50 hands, that's a little aggressive, but I wouldn't try and do much planning on trapping just yet. It's very possible he had a good run of hands. I myself had a spot like this where I knew someone was going to play back because I had opened and 3-bet probably 8 out of the last 12 hands, but I was just on a good run of cards.

 

[John A]

Summary so far:
We have point #1, which is make sure you're c-betting enough in position.

#2 - Limit your cold calling out of position with trouble hands and speculative hands.

Point #3. Being Lost on the Turn.

And next....

Point #4 - Don't play without initiative.
How important is initiative in today's games? Extremely important. Several years ago, you could have a wider and more profitable cold calling range, and you could comfortably check/call a lot of spots. Not so much anymore, at least against most opponents. I'm not saying there won't be spots to cede initiative and call down against someone's range. What I'm saying is that you'll find yourself in more profitable poker situations if you are taking control of the hand as much as possible.

This might seem like an obvious point in some ways, but I still see profitable poker players struggling with it. I had a 50nl student a couple of weeks ago for example, that was struggling with this in 3-bet pots when he called. When facing the second barrel he didn't know what to do, and this is a profitable 50nl player, someone who has won at 100nl+ as well.

This single point should be clear:
You have many MORE options when you are the raiser, or the person betting the hand. Your perceived range will always be stronger than your opponents calling range. A simple point, but extremely important.

So this means you should make more definitive decisions against your opponent, and minimize/eliminate calling as much as possible. The alternative is that you're calling down against your opponents betting/raising range without really knowing what their 2nd and 3rd barreling tendencies are. Except for really extreme cases, where someone's stats are extremely high or low on one side of the scale or the other, knowing 2nd and 3rd barrel tendencies is not as cut and dry as I think players (and I'm including good mid stake+ players in here) really are. That's because you need a really large sample size on your opponents to really know this.

So what this means in practice is that against decent/good regulars in your game, you're much better off depolarizing your 3-bet range (using my quasi 3-bet range like in polished poker) instead of flat calling pre-flop. You're also much better off 4-bet/folding depolarized hands than calling. On the flop, you're better off raising a lot of marginal hands where you have some equity than calling. The previous general strategy was always, call with strong hands that are beating your opponents range, and then call down against their weaker betting range. However, this is increasingly more difficult to do against competent and aggressive opponents.

As you move up in stakes, some of this advice will change, but if you're playing 200nl or below, this will be a much less exploitative strategy long term. It will simplify the game, and make your decisions much easier and more clear.

I can provide some more examples of this, and how it relates to a whole strategy, but I'll start with this for now.

 

[Fisi]

Summary so far:
We have point #1, which is make sure you're c-betting enough in position.

#2 - Limit your cold calling out of position with trouble hands and speculative hands.

Point #3. Being Lost on the Turn.

And next....

Point #4 - Don't play without initiative.
How important is initiative in today's games? Extremely important. Several years ago, you could have a wider and more profitable cold calling range, and you could comfortably check/call a lot of spots. Not so much anymore, at least against most opponents. I'm not saying there won't be spots to cede initiative and call down against someone's range. What I'm saying is that you'll find yourself in more profitable poker situations if you are taking control of the hand as much as possible.

This might seem like an obvious point in some ways, but I still see profitable poker players struggling with it. I had a 50nl student a couple of weeks ago for example, that was struggling with this in 3-bet pots when he called. When facing the second barrel he didn't know what to do, and this is a profitable 50nl player, someone who has won at 100nl+ as well.

This single point should be clear:
You have many MORE options when you are the raiser, or the person betting the hand. Your perceived range will always be stronger than your opponents calling range. A simple point, but extremely important.

So this means you should make more definitive decisions against your opponent, and minimize/eliminate calling as much as possible. The alternative is that you're calling down against your opponents betting/raising range without really knowing what their 2nd and 3rd barreling tendencies are. Except for really extreme cases, where someone's stats are extremely high or low on one side of the scale or the other, knowing 2nd and 3rd barrel tendencies is not as cut and dry as I think players (and I'm including good mid stake+ players in here) really are. That's because you need a really large sample size on your opponents to really know this.

So what this means in practice is that against decent/good regulars in your game, you're much better off depolarizing your 3-bet range (using my quasi 3-bet range like in polished poker) instead of flat calling pre-flop. You're also much better off 4-bet/folding depolarized hands than calling. On the flop, you're better off raising a lot of marginal hands where you have some equity than calling. The previous general strategy was always, call with strong hands that are beating your opponents range, and then call down against their weaker betting range. However, this is increasingly more difficult to do against competent and aggressive opponents.

As you move up in stakes, some of this advice will change, but if you're playing 200nl or below, this will be a much less exploitative strategy long term. It will simplify the game, and make your decisions much easier and more clear.

I can provide some more examples of this, and how it relates to a whole strategy, but I'll start with this for now.

I've been trying this out lately, as I have been 4betting with hands like AJo and KJo against really aggresive regulars that 3bet a lot and have high postflop AF%. However they were calling or 5betting like 80%+, so I guess it was a bad choice of opponents, or I was just unlucky. I get the advice to raise marginal hands on the flop, but what about out of position? Check-raising our midpairs seems very spewy and I'm not a big fan of donking. Should we be calling cbets and leading turns, or are we just check-folding midpairs and such?

I also have another question regarding moving up stakes. I've been improving my game and was playing pretty good on 5NL (10bb/100 winrate on the last 20.000 hands, solid red line), and went back on 10NL, where I was crushed. This seems to happen always when I move up stakes and it's pretty dishartening. Is the play really that much better or am I playing badly when moving up?

 

[John A]

I've been trying this out lately, as I have been 4betting with hands like AJo and KJo against really aggresive regulars that 3bet a lot and have high postflop AF%. However they were calling or 5betting like 80%+, so I guess it was a bad choice of opponents, or I was just unlucky. I get the advice to raise marginal hands on the flop, but what about out of position? Check-raising our midpairs seems very spewy and I'm not a big fan of donking. Should we be calling cbets and leading turns, or are we just check-folding midpairs and such?

I also have another question regarding moving up stakes. I've been improving my game and was playing pretty good on 5NL (10bb/100 winrate on the last 20.000 hands, solid red line), and went back on 10NL, where I was crushed. This seems to happen always when I move up stakes and it's pretty dishartening. Is the play really that much better or am I playing badly when moving up?

Post some examples of the spots where you're doing this and it's not working with your opponents stats. Sometimes people are going to have hands. At 5NL, you'll probably be more inclined to fold instead of 4-bet (minus some extreme situations) since you won't have a ton of opponents with high 3-bet %'s. But post some hands and I can help you work through the specifics of profitable situations.

As far as moving up, every time you do your opponents will be slightly better. Now there's not going to be some huge difference between 5nl and 10nl. There will be some though and you just need to figure out what those are. How much more are the betting the turn, value betting slimmer, etc..

 

[Fisi]

IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Villain is 33/21, AF% 47, 3bet 8,0; F3B 100 (62 hands)

BB: $11.60 (116 bb)
CO: $7.10 (71 bb)
Hero (BTN): $11.62 (116.2 bb)
SB: $10.06 (100.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with J

K

CO folds, Hero raises to $0.20, SB folds, BB raises to $0.70, Hero raises to $1.70, BB raises to $11.60 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results: $3.45 pot
BB mucked and won $3.45 ($1.75 net)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Villain is 31/24, AF% 39, 3bet 10,0; F3B 100 (201 hands)

BB: $10.81 (108.1 bb)
Hero (CO): $13.73 (137.3 bb)
BTN: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
SB: $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T

Q

Hero raises to $0.30, BTN raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.40, BTN raises to $10.15 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results: $4.95 pot
BTN mucked and won $4.95 ($2.55 net)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Villain is 34/25, AF% 43, 3bet 18,8; F3B 33 (86 hands)

BB: $10.33 (103.3 bb)
Hero (CO): $10.05 (100.5 bb)
BTN: $10 (100 bb)
SB: $9.73 (97.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J

A

Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, SB raises to $0.70, BB folds, Hero raises to $2, BTN folds, SB calls $1.30

Flop: ($4.40) K

4

6

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.40, SB calls $2.40

Turn: ($9.20) J

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($9.20) 7

(2 players)
SB bets $4.90, Hero folds

Results: $9.20 pot ($0.61 rake)
Final Board: K

4

6

J

7

Hero mucked J

A

and lost (-$4.40 net)
SB mucked and won $8.59 ($4.19 net)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Villain is 50/50, AF% 50, 3bet 100; F3B - (2 hands)

SB: $11.54 (115.4 bb)
BB: $11.26 (112.6 bb)
MP: $6.43 (64.3 bb)
Hero (CO): $12 (120 bb)
BTN: $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J

A

MP folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN raises to $0.90, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.40, BTN calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.95) J

T

5

(2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.95) K

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.10 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results: $9.95 pot ($0.66 rake)
Final Board: J

T

5

K

Hero mucked J

A

and lost (-$4.90 net)
BTN mucked and won $9.29 ($4.39 net)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Villain is 26/23, AF% 75, 3bet 17,6; F3B 0 (44 hands)

BB: $19.29 (192.9 bb)
Hero (UTG): $10.10 (101 bb)
MP: $9.30 (93 bb)
CO: $26.69 (266.9 bb)
BTN: $13.12 (131.2 bb)
SB: $12.43 (124.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K

A

Hero raises to $0.30, MP folds, CO raises to $0.60, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.60, CO calls $1

Flop: ($3.35) 3

3

4

(2 players)
Hero bets $1.80, CO calls $1.80

Turn: ($6.95) Q

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3.47, Hero folds

Results: $6.95 pot ($0.46 rake)
Final Board: 3

3

4

Q

Hero mucked K

A

and lost (-$3.40 net)
CO mucked and won $6.49 ($3.09 net)


Hopefully I haven't spammed too much with the hands. In the last one I'm not sure whether it would have been better to fire the second barrel. There seems to be a whole lot of guys this aggro on 10NL fast on iPoker and they are causing me a whole lot of trouble as compared to 5NL, where it was generally really nitty. I guess taking a passive trappy aproach and not build big pots pre without big pairs against this guys may be a reasonable approach to take.

 

[John A]

Hand 1 is fine. Calling in position in this kind of dynamic is also ok. I'm mainly concerned with out of position play when you'll really be in tough spots post flop. But I don't mind this, the only thing is you don't really know your opponents 3-betting tendencies other than the fact he'll probably be doing it lighter when you open the button.

Hand 2 is good... 4-bet or fold against this kind of opponent.

Hand 3 is good, probably 4-bet a little larger. This guy seems pretty goofy/bad. I think a river call is slightly +EV for the odds. Think you're going to see QQ/TT and some draws here enough for this to be +EV. You're not going to see much Kx, maybe KQ based on how bad he played it.

Hand 4, not enough info on opponent (2 hands), but jam or c/call the turn.

Hand 5, 4-bet sizing needs to increase. And c/fing the turn w/o better info is fine.

You'll be surprised what people show up with.

 

[Fisi]

Hand 1 is fine. Calling in position in this kind of dynamic is also ok. I'm mainly concerned with out of position play when you'll really be in tough spots post flop. But I don't mind this, the only thing is you don't really know your opponents 3-betting tendencies other than the fact he'll probably be doing it lighter when you open the button.

Hand 2 is good... 4-bet or fold against this kind of opponent.

Hand 3 is good, probably 4-bet a little larger. This guy seems pretty goofy/bad. I think a river call is slightly +EV for the odds. Think you're going to see QQ/TT and some draws here enough for this to be +EV. You're not going to see much Kx, maybe KQ based on how bad he played it.

Hand 4, not enough info on opponent (2 hands), but jam or c/call the turn.

Hand 5, 4-bet sizing needs to increase. And c/fing the turn w/o better info is fine.

You'll be surprised what people show up with.

Thanks for the input! Yeah, my range is generally pretty strong in those spots, so I guess I project this on my opponents as well.

 

[stately7]

Hi John, i think i need to get with this thread. I've DL your ebook a while back (thank you) but haven't sat down and read it yet due to life/work(!) and the fact I was reading a ton of physical poker books at the time, as well as getting involved with threads on this forum. Appreciate what you're doing here, subbing, cheers.

 

[John A]

Thanks for the input! Yeah, my range is generally pretty strong in those spots, so I guess I project this on my opponents as well.

You're welcome. Hang tough, and continue to ask questions. When you're trying something new it takes a while to figure out how to implement and balance it properly. You don't want to over do it, but you don't want to put yourself in situations where you're guessing your opponents aggression frequency too much. If you're unsure, it's better to take the initiative. Again, that doesn't mean there aren't great times to call down against someone's range with mediocre hands.

 

[John A]

Cool... you're welcome. Ask any questions you have as they come up. Hopefully I can finish this study book at some point. I think it will drive home a lot of what I'm trying to convey. I just try and make poker as simple and enjoyable as possible.

Hi John, i think i need to get with this thread. I've DL your ebook a while back (thank you) but haven't sat down and read it yet due to life/work(!) and the fact I was reading a ton of physical poker books at the time, as well as getting involved with threads on this forum. Appreciate what you're doing here, subbing, cheers.

 

[John A]

On to point #5 - Not mixing in different lines from the blinds against steal attempts.

You'll have to defend your blinds a little more now a days, and to do so effectively you need to be mixing it up against the regulars in your games. So if you do cold call with a medium strength hand, you'll need to:

1) Donking into regs that aren't super aggressive when you miss. This is always a good way to see which regulars in your games will give up the easiest. The most aggressive and experienced players will be raising and floating. But you'd be surprised at how many people will just let their hands go if you're picking the right boards. Doing this with hands when you have 1 or 2 over cards, and some backdoor draws is most ideal.

2) Stop and Go. Doing this on some dry boards, or single broadway boards when you have an over card. This can be an extremely effective line, and even some of the more aggressive regulars will back off if they don't have a hand/big draw.

3) Checkraising. Generally more expensive to do than the other 2 lines, and can look more bluffy in a blind steal spot. Generally do this for value, or when you have a big draw, 2 overcards, etc..

All of these and c/c, c/c need to be in your arsenal when it makes sense. If you're losing over 30bb/100 in the BB and over 20bb/100 in the SB, then you should focus on trying some new lines and mixing up your defense. You can do it.

 

[Menschlich]

What do you mean by the stop and go? I know the term from tournament strategy but I figure it isn't quite the same. Do you mean c/c, lead turn?

 

[John A]

Yes, stop and go is c/c and lead. Sorry, but I assume everyone has read over the book also since it's talked about in there.

 

[Menschlich]

Yeah I've downloaded the book. Probably need to read that section over again.

 

[Fisi]

I have a qestion about point #4, before moving to #5 if I may. Preflop gameplan seems logical and fine. Postflop you suggest raising your hands with some equity vs good regulars. Could you give some examples? It's kind of obvious you want to raise your draws, but how about middle pairs on dry boards? Like having 98s and the board comes Q84r, do we raise the cbet here? Or having JT on a T25r for example? Also what if we're OOP in such hands? Do we call flop, lead turn? Donk?

 

[John A]

Yes, good questions. with your 98s example, it's villain dependent like always. The reason you'd consider raising in any of these spots is when you have aggressive opponents who are double and tripping a lot. I think at your stakes, this isn't going to be the case quite as often. I'm talking about an overall strategy where you are staying very aggressive in position against regulars. It's a better strategy than trying to accumulate 20k+ hands so that you can get an idea of their true aggression frequencies. Good aggressive regs will be able to get you to fold your medium strength hands often enough when they have initiative. So you can call down versus their range, or you can apply pressure back. But what line you take you need to be clear on from the beginning.

If you are calling with 98s, then you should know what kind of opponent you're playing at and that you're going to be raising a lot of boards when you whiff, draws, possibly middle pairs. If your opponent isn't aggressive though, and you do hit middle pair, then calling is fine.

OOP you should be limiting what kind of mediocre hands you're playing. When you do have one, yes, c/c lead is a great line against a lot of opponents.

I think at your stakes, calling with middle pairs in position, and probably c/cing and leading half pot OTT when you have a medium strength hand is more ideal. Your opponents won't understand range enough and they'll tend to only raise when they have big hands or have big draws.

 

[Figaroo2]

working hard to apply your points

#2 - Limit your cold calling out of position with trouble hands and speculative hands.
Point #3. Being Lost on the Turn.
Point #4 - Don't play without initiative.

Haven't been able to get any game time at all this week but last week really tried hard to concentrate on points 2-4. Also decided on the flop my plan for the hand and as a result folded less later in the hand. It got me into a few losing spots but by the end of the week I started to iron these out better and made some better river bluffs..look what happened to my redline!
I know its only a small sample but its all I could find the time for last week and i finished the week nicely. Hate it when i'm at work 0700 to 2200 every day its really interfering with my poker .:musicus: