****Juggernaut June Poker Chat Thread******

blankoblanco

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dsvw56 said:
Why in the world would you bet $28 on this river instead of just sticking it in?

:confused: the same reason you might bet $28 instead of $32 regardless of how much money is behind? because apparently he thought there was a slightly higher enough % chance of getting $28 called, enough to make it more profitable

obviously not saying that it was or wasn't, but value betting a huge hand is always about finding a limit where you think you reach max profit based on the % of the time you think they call (plus the chance that you can get them to bluff-raise, but that wasn't a factor in this particular spot). otherwise you'd just overbet shove the nuts every time. the fact that $4 separated it from being an all-in doesn't make it any different...
 
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Thats ****ing it. Taking my whole roll to 200NL right now. I either win big or go busto and never play again.
 
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switch0723

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glglglgl
 
dsvw56

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blankoblanco said:
:confused: the same reason you might bet $28 instead of $32 regardless of how much money is behind? because apparently he thought there was a slightly higher enough % chance of getting $28 called, enough to make it more profitable

obviously not saying that it was or wasn't, but value betting a huge hand is always about finding a limit where you think you reach max profit based on the % of the time you think they call (plus the chance that you can get them to bluff-raise, but that wasn't a factor in this particular spot). otherwise you'd just overbet shove the nuts every time. the fact that $4 separated it from being an all-in doesn't make it any different...

There's like a 0% chance he ever calls $28 but folds to $31.90 here. If it's non-zero, it is never going to be often to make betting $28 more profitable. That's the point I was making.
 
pantin007

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dsvw56 said:
There's like a 0% chance he ever calls $28 but folds to $31.90 here. If it's non-zero, it is never going to be often to make betting $28 more profitable. That's the point I was making.
this is my thinking, i mean it would be totally different if he bet 24 but i really doubt there is much difference between 28 and 31.90 in this spot
 
blankoblanco

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dsvw56 said:
There's like a 0% chance he ever calls $28 but folds to $31.10 here. If it's non-zero, it is never going to be often to make betting $28 more profitable. That's the point I was making.

okay, let's say there's a million dollars behind. do you think there's still the same 0% chance that he calls $28 and folds $31? there must be. and if he calls 31, surely he must call 32! and if he calls 32, surely he must call 33! so if we continue to follow that logic, with the nuts we should just always go all-in

i mean there's always a cut-off, apparently he thought that might have been it. yeah, i probably would have shoved also but i'm just saying there's no intrinsic magical quality to stacking the guy as opposed to getting $3 or $4 less. it's the same as getting $3 or $4 less when there's a million dollars behind. but you always have to find a limit for your bet somewhere, and there's usually a cut off where they'll call for $x but fold for $x+1. it's just a balancing act, and you're only nitpicking it specifically because $3 separated it from being an "all-in" as opposed to just being $3 more in expectation. which doesn't really make sense
 
WVHillbilly

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Betting $28 with $3.10 left behind is as ridiculous as trying to compare it to betting $28 with a million left behind.
 
blankoblanco

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WVHillbilly said:
Betting $28 with $3.10 left behind is as ridiculous as trying to compare it to betting $28 with a million left behind.

omg, the point is that it doesn't matter what is behind!!!!!! you're still just trying to find the limit that you think is most profitable based on the amount and the % it gets called. following the "if he calls x he calls x+1, if he calls x+1, he must call x+2" logic to its conclusion would suggest that you should always bet the max with the nuts. that is obviously wrong. this is not a hard concept to grasp
 
BelgoSuisse

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bw07507 said:
Thats ****ing it. Taking my whole roll to 200NL right now. I either win big or go busto and never play again.

You're serious?

Try to win big. It feels better than going busto, imo.
 
vanquish

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i think the whole $28 rather than $31.90 can be a psychological thing where we expect villain to call $28 but be too scared of a $31.90 awrin. same reason you sometimes bet/call $100 as a bluff when the guy has $120 behind. you COULD just shove, because it's pretty much the same thing, but psychologically $100 has more FE, so you pick $100.


maybe it's a lil different



two other things:

-wtf at this ray allen and rajon rondo for rip hamilton, stuckey, and tayshaun? who the f wants rip hamilton lol? i guess rodney stuckey is pretty good though, but come on celts.

-i picked my major today and i think it's staying for good! i'm in the business/management program at my school, but they offer a psychology major in my program (so i'd have a bachelors in commerce with a major in psych) which looks really great for what i'm interested in atm and the courses are really diverse and i have a lot of selection. i think it's my best bet over everything else, so gl me, after several years of bouncing around ideas, i think i've got this one figured out!

IMO!
 
dsvw56

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blankoblanco said:
omg, the point is that it doesn't matter what is behind!!!!!! you're still just trying to find the limit that you think is most profitable based on the amount and the % it gets called. following the "if he calls x he calls x+1, if he calls x+1, he must call x+2" logic to its conclusion would suggest that you should always bet the max with the nuts. that is obviously wrong. this is not a hard concept to grasp

A) Calm down. Everyone understands the concept, you're just blowing things out of proportion.

B) Yes, there is a difference between an all-in or near all-in bet and betting with more money left behind because player's mindsets change. How many players on the river with slightly more than a pot sized bet left are thinking "Ok, I'm calling if he bets 3/4 pot but folding if he shoves"? Almost all of the time their decision is binary, either they are calling or they aren't regardless of the size of the bet.
 
jdeliverer

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blankoblanco said:
omg, the point is that it doesn't matter what is behind!!!!!! you're still just trying to find the limit that you think is most profitable based on the amount and the % it gets called. following the "if he calls x he calls x+1, if he calls x+1, he must call x+2" logic to its conclusion would suggest that you should always bet the max with the nuts. that is obviously wrong. this is not a hard concept to grasp

But it does matter what's behind. And nobody's taking it to that conclusion except you. We all realize there's a cutoff, but betting 90% of your stack is not going to be correct in virtually all circumstances (unless you have them covered and it doesn't matter). So... it kind of does matter what's behind.
 
eNTy

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vanquish said:
i think the whole $28 rather than $31.90 can be a psychological thing where we expect villain to call $28 but be too scared of a $31.90 awrin. same reason you sometimes bet/call $100 as a bluff when the guy has $120 behind. you COULD just shove, because it's pretty much the same thing, but psychologically $100 has more FE, so you pick $100.

This pretty much.
Guy is a drooler, so I'm just trying to get most money out of him.
If I just shove I don't think he calls enough, unless he has a flush a lot of the time. There's a big difference between betting a certain percentage of pot and just mashing pot button or all in button, when it comes to how they react to your bets.

But most of all I didn't fully pay attention to what was left in his stack, until after I made the bet, and more to what % of pot I was betting.

And tb, exams were ausum overall, Physics and Chemistry is gonna be a close one. Yes HU obviously, shit day ..
 
Jagsti

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switch0723 said:
sigh :smile:

My sarcasm detector was obv switched off at the time :bootyshak
 
blankoblanco

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vanquish said:
i think the whole $28 rather than $31.90 can be a psychological thing where we expect villain to call $28 but be too scared of a $31.90 awrin. same reason you sometimes bet/call $100 as a bluff when the guy has $120 behind. you COULD just shove, because it's pretty much the same thing, but psychologically $100 has more FE, so you pick $100.

yeah this, basically. like i said, i would have just shoved probably too, but enty bet the % he bet because he thought it'd get called more, maybe that's wrong, maybe that's right

dsvw56 said:
A) Calm down. Everyone understands the concept, you're just blowing things out of proportion.

B) Yes, there is a difference between an all-in or near all-in bet and betting with more money left behind because player's mindsets change. How many players on the river with slightly more than a pot sized bet left are thinking "Ok, I'm calling if he bets 3/4 pot but folding if he shoves"? Almost all of the time their decision is binary, either they are calling or they aren't regardless of the size of the bet.

using 6 exclamation points in a row does not mean im being super serious, it means i'm bein' flippant, i'm plenty calm

and yo, i already explained why that logic is flawed. again, say there's $100 or whatever more behind. does anybody say "okay, i'm calling $32 but folding to $33?" i don't know, but at some point they make that distinction.

basically take any hand where you bet less than all-in with a huge hand on the river, and i'll act incredulous that you didn't bet $2 more because clearly he would have called the same % of the time for $2 more. that is pretty much the same thing you guys are doing to enty. actually if anything, the fact that $3 more is an all-in makes that $3 MORE psychologically powerful than if they have more behind. some recreational players play a cash game til they bust their stack. with $3 left they can still attempt to run it up so that might encourage them to call slightly more if they still have that left

jamesdadeliverer said:
We all realize there's a cutoff, but betting 90% of your stack is not going to be correct in virtually all circumstances (unless you have them covered and it doesn't matter).

i'm waiting for the why, though. just because you say it's so?

it might have been slightly not the best bet, just like it might have been slightly not the best bet if they'd had $100 more behind. but acting incredulous about it is just silly. he wasn't intentionally trying to short himself $3, he clearly thought that there was a psychological difference. if he knew the guy calls 100%, he goes all-in obviously
 
WVHillbilly

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blankoblanco said:
it might have been slightly not the best bet, just like it might have been slightly not the best bet if they'd had $100 more behind. but acting incredulous about it is just silly. he wasn't intentionally trying to short himself $3, he clearly thought that there was a psychological difference. if he knew the guy calls 100%, he goes all-in obviously

Or maybe he just wasn't paying attention?

eNTy said:
This pretty much.
But most of all I didn't fully pay attention to what was left in his stack, until after I made the bet, and more to what % of pot I was betting.

What hands are in villain's range that he calls $28 but folds to $32? If he calls $28 50% of the time, he only has to call $32 44% to make the all-in bet better.
 
vanquish

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vanquish said:
-i picked my major today and i think it's staying for good! i'm in the business/management program at my school, but they offer a psychology major in my program (so i'd have a bachelors in commerce with a major in psych) which looks really great for what i'm interested in atm and the courses are really diverse and i have a lot of selection. i think it's my best bet over everything else, so gl me, after several years of bouncing around ideas, i think i've got this one figured out!


BOMP 4 QFT
 
eNTy

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WVHillbilly said:
What hands are in villain's range that he calls $28 but folds to $32? If he calls $28 50% of the time, he only has to call $32 44% to make the all-in bet better.

U seem to not have read the part of my post you quoted.
I didn't bet $28 because I thought it was better than $32.
I bet $28 because the pot was 38 and I felt he would call that more of the times than if I bet $38.

Obviously it doesn't apply here because I didn't take note of his stack ...

I don't get why the thread is going crazy over this hand.
 
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WVHillbilly

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vanquish said:
BOMP 4 QFT

Sorry vanquish, congrats! Glad you found something that you find exciting to pursue. :icon_thum
 
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switch0723

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Im amazed at the amount of people not 'believing' what blanks is saying when he isn't inventing a new theory or anything, he is just purely stating facts, yet is being questioned, thats a bit weird.

Going to use a funky analogy of the whole situation which is weird but fits coz its cool. It's like when a lioness is stalking a gazelle, then suddenly decides to go and sprint after it when 40 yards away, why? Why not just walk in 4 more yards and start sprinting when 36 yards away? Because the lion obv thought the chances of it being seen in the extra 4 yards were not worth the extra equity in catching the gazelle. How awesome is that
 
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switch0723

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as an extra, people saying not shoving is stupid blah blah, do you have situation on the river where say you bet 16 into a $19 pot with 50 bucks behind with a big hand, why didn't you bet pot? why did you bet slightly less? its all because you thought that was the amount that would be called most
 
zachvac

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WVHillbilly said:
What hands are in villain's range that he calls $28 but folds to $32? If he calls $28 50% of the time, he only has to call $32 44% to make the all-in bet better.

Found this hand. Should I be betting $15 on river because if he calls $12.50 surely he doesn't fold enough to the bigger bet right?

------------------------------------
$0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players

Hero (SB): $69.85 (139.7 bb)
BB: $50.30 (100.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with Q
spade.gif
Q
diamond.gif

Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3) 8
diamond.gif
Q
heart.gif
J
club.gif
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB calls $2

Turn: ($7) 7
club.gif
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5.50, BB calls $5.50

River: ($18) 3
diamond.gif
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12.50

-------------------------------------------------

Something tells me if I posted this hand everyone would be like standard while the only criteria for him needing to bet more is it's all-in. Actually it's the exact same logic as people talking about not wanting to commit themselves. Both logic lines are extremely flawed. If say you're bluffing and $20 is the line for commitment and you think when you raise to 21 they fold a lot more than 19 then you bet 21 and call it off. In fact since 20 is the line the ev in betting 21 and calling off and betting 19 and folding are extremely close people just have a psychological thing about getting their money in bad that wants them to avoid committing themselves to stack with a weak hand. But it's the same thing. Money behind doesn't matter unless it psychologically impacts FE with villain, either making him more likely to call because he'll have money behind or less likely because he thinks you want a call. Again I have no idea why Enty did it but Blanko is basically 100% right.
 
dsvw56

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switch0723 said:
as an extra, people saying not shoving is stupid blah blah, do you have situation on the river where say you bet 16 into a $19 pot with 50 bucks behind with a big hand, why didn't you bet pot? why did you bet slightly less? its all because you thought that was the amount that would be called most

I already explained why. People seem to not care though.
 
BelgoSuisse

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switch0723 said:
How awesome is that

Somewhat awesome, i agree, but a gazillion times and a half less awesome than vanquish choosing his major, imo.
 
vanquish

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u guise make me feel so good

btw i'm pretty sure lions are programmed to sprint after gazelles at exactly 40 yards.

20 yards if its preflop
 
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