Lightbulb moment - speculative hands

[Stu_Ungar]

Good post, I agree with everything in it.

 

[PotluckXXI]

Got it

Thanks for the clarification, small pairs are set mining on flop vs nit range, otherwise fold. How should you play when you make the set? Heads up position dependent, do you shove 3x or 4x pot vs betting into stack equity, or is it better to smooth call/check?

 

[c9h13no3]

C9 I hear what you're saying about people playing ranges face up, but I got sick of paying that guy off

Apparently nits don't play their strong ranges face up enough for you.

Top pair with JTs is a 5 out draw against a nit when he bets the turn.

 

[baudib1]

I never fold equity.

 

[Stu_Ungar]

Apparently nits don't play their strong ranges face up enough for you.

Top pair with JTs is a 5 out draw against a nit when he bets the turn.

Yes but against a nit the 2nd barrel is usually with a range that beats you so you have about 15% equity.

Against a more agro laggie player, sometimes this 2nd barrel with be a bluff and sometimes its done with a hand you beat (thin value or a made hand being bluffed).

So I dont think you can play this profitably against a nit unless you are quite deep and can get huge implied odds when you hit, however against a lag your equity includes a portion of times you have the best hand and so drawing here is more profitable as it merges with value calling.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Great post baudib1!!

 

[alaskabill]

Great post baudib1!!

+1. OP that is a really great post/thread. Its a great example of the idea that how we play is determined by the type of player that we are playing against. Cookie cutter "always do x in this spot" just don't cut it in the long run.

 

[baudib1]

thanks for the feedback, guys

Another note: JTs will outflop overpairs just 5.7%, 22 will outflop them 11.1%

 

[LuckyChippy]

Great post.

Basically the ideas of set mining and when to play suited connector type hands but I especially like how you related it to ranges.

We play suited connectors not to flop monsters but to make our opponents fold, which they do that with a weak range. SCs also flop decent equity a decent amount of time. Eq + FE = $.

 

[Cafeman]

I'm visualising a graph where stack sizes go up and calling with sPP and SC lines cross. 250bb?

EDIT: nice post baudib1 !

 

[Cafeman]

 

[LuckyChippy]

Haha I love the graph. However I think theoretically the PP graph would be more U shaped.

 

[ben_rhyno]

Love dem titties.

Nice post OP.

 

[PotluckXXI]

Since reading the original post I have implemented this play with huge results. The nitish players scream I've got A's or K's pre-flop when they raise, unfortunatley (for them) they are so stingy that the raise is not more than 3 or 4x BB so call in position. If the flop is dead for the nit then he checks, dead for me I check and get to see the turn for free, if I hit I make a small bet, he calls. This play has worked best on the turn or river when the hand has been checked through and I make my set then. A large bet like 20XBB is getting a call and I take down the pot.

 

[LuckyChippy]

I just read my last post again and realised I should have said n. I think.

 

[Cafeman]

I just read my last post again and realised I should have said n. I think.

Starting at 100bb effective stacks, it probably isn't too far out.

Maybe someone could have a stab at a realistic graph?

 

[LuckyChippy]

Like this? lmao

 

[Cafeman]

Like this?

Not enough boobs!

 

[acky100]

Nice post Baudib1! Makes perfect sense.

 

[LuckyChippy]

Not enough boobs!

 

[Cafeman]

I hope baudib1 appreciates the mathematical rigour we are bringing to this thread.

 

[duggs]

this should be golden archived imo. great read

 

[Matt Vaughan]

Not sure why I never went to the 2nd page on this... I will work on coming up with moar graphs if I remember

 

[fletchdad]

LuckyChippy, please more of those graphs......

I subbed this post to read at a later date and it just now got bumped. I had forgotten about it. I am now starting back up playing after an 8 week break - sort of - and this was a great read to get back into things.

 

[GWU73]

Great post. I rarely think in terms of pot equity in NL. Maybe I should.