Pocket pair vs two overcards odds

[Gieniu69]

One pair on hand is always Good in my opinion, but when you havet 22, 33, 44 you must be lucky ! sometimes you can win Big money

 

[Sherzod]

bot not always.its difficult to catch a set on flop.better to play whith AK.
P.S sorry for my english

 

[oakthyago]

Hi everyone,



But when holding two cards you have 7 outs - roughly that give you a 32% chance of atleast 1 of your cards making a pair. That's what i don't get.

I believe that you heard in some place that on the flop you have 30% of chance to hit your pair on the flop. for the rule of turn and river that is very know around poker you can now calculate your chances of get your A or K on the turn and river ( 6 out x 4 = 24)

Now you ask me " but you should be on a desavantage of about 5% on this kind of battles. and yes you are. if you just add 30+ 24 = 54 you are doing this worng.

Remembet that the pocket pairs have yet 2 outs to make a tird of a kind.


What does this poker software made this kind of complex cauculation? they simulate all the possible combination of hands, and calculate in who much you should win and lose. Good luck doing this math =)

 

[mojorising]

Everywhere you go you hear that eg. 66 vs AK is a coinflip situation, or close. Like 55% vs 45%.

But when holding two cards you have 7 outs - roughly that give you a 32% chance of atleast 1 of your cards making a pair. That's what i don't get.

Assuming you do not improve on your 66 then your opponent with AK has 33% chance of hitting a pair on the flop (1 - (44x43x42/50x49x48)) so you are odds on to still be ahead after the flop.

But by the river his chance of hitting a pair increases to 49% (1- (44x43x42x41x40/50x49x48x47x46)) so if you have not improved on your 66 then you are almost evens to win/lose against AK with 66.

 

[tdh777]

I think because if it were heads up your chance of hitting your outs would be about (6/48) *5 because of the 5 community cards. That would equal to a 0.625 probability.

This is obviously very oversimplified because there is also the possibility that your opponent makes a set and also you have to take into account the other cards folded if you have several players. So that would decrease the probability below 0.625.

Figuring out the probability is not as simple as counting the outs, which is why they usually get the percentages by running the hands millions of times.

No bob, they don't "get the percentages by running the hands millions of times".

As other responders have said, it's all maths ("Combinations and Permutations" is the relevant area of maths concerned with probability).

You can know the probability / odds without ever running a single hand.

Waz in Oz.

 

[sibkaz]

The topic is 22 years old, but how relevant! )))

 

[monkeytilter]

The topic is 22 years old, but how relevant! )))

Good job maths isn't important in Poker

2025 - 2013 = 22??

 

[besttest11]

AK has six overcard outs (three Aces, three Kings) that will make a better pair than 66.
AK can also make a straight, which gives it additional equity.

 

[Bhargav]

1) Going all in pre-flop is coin flip -- You can go all in with any pairs. Even 22 can win against AA. But you cannot risk your stack in the middle stage, bubble stage and ITM stage. With short stack and early in tourney, you can go all in.

2) Calling or raising pre-flop depends on the pairs you have. 66 covers all board cards below 6, similarly 1010 covers all board cards below 10. So you will be inclined to raise 1010 pre flop, but calling with 66. Simple as that, keeping odds aside