NFL Betting Thread

[A9ofHearts]

What do you all think about the over for the Jaguars/Denver game?
With the way Denver has been scoring this seems like a really easy pick. Is there something I'm missing here?

 

[Gesshoo]

What do you all think about the over for the Jaguars/Denver game?
With the way Denver has been scoring this seems like a really easy pick. Is there something I'm missing here?

The line in the US at Bovada is Denver - 27 points.

My concerns on taking Denver are:

1. Their D isn't great and Jax could get some scores with Shorts & Blackmon.
2. If Denver gets a comfortable lead, they could go 2nd string and rest Manning.

I'd probably go Jax + 27....

 

[supernuts25]

thats a pretty big goal. but possible good luck

 

[A9ofHearts]

ThanK you both for the replies. What I meant though was the over on total points scored. It's currently sitting somewhere in the 50s and Denver has nearly gotten that on their own the last couple of games making me think it is probably a good bet. This is what I wanted peoples thoughts on

 

[TheKid84]

ThanK you both for the replies. What I meant though was the over on total points scored. It's currently sitting somewhere in the 50s and Denver has nearly gotten that on their own the last couple of games making me think it is probably a good bet. This is what I wanted peoples thoughts on

It stands at 54 at the moment. I'm not betting on this game, due to the absolute best vs the absolute worst. If I were to weigh in on the over/under, I'd say bet the over.

Chances are, DEN is scoring at least 28 by the half, and 35 wouldn't be a long shot either. That would mean 3-4 more TD's scored in the 'garbage time' second half. I think Jax is going to surprise a lot of people with the highest score output of the season here. They just got Justin Blackmon back (and he is good and fresh) which will open a lot more for that offense. Yea, I can see them scoring 27 by the end of the game. The question is will DEN still match them score for score in their garbage time, and how late with Peyton play into the game.

Long story short, my vote is the over, but the only way I'm touching this game is a small $1 parlay.

 

[A9ofHearts]

It stands at 54 at the moment. I'm not betting on this game, due to the absolute best vs the absolute worst. If I were to weigh in on the over/under, I'd say bet the over.

Chances are, DEN is scoring at least 28 by the half, and 35 wouldn't be a long shot either. That would mean 3-4 more TD's scored in the 'garbage time' second half. I think Jax is going to surprise a lot of people with the highest score output of the season here. They just got Justin Blackmon back (and he is good and fresh) which will open a lot more for that offense. Yea, I can see them scoring 27 by the end of the game. The question is will DEN still match them score for score in their garbage time, and how late with Peyton play into the game.

Long story short, my vote is the over, but the only way I'm touching this game is a small $1 parlay.

Thanks for the advice. I'm probably going to bet $25 or so on the over. The more I think about it the more I like it. I'm also thinking of betting the spread on Jacksonville for the reasons you mentioned.

 

[moneyman925]

Im thinking jax will cover. Peyton will probably put denver up by 35 early in the 3rd. Denver will rest the starters and play prevent d. Jax gets a couple of garbage time TD and there goes the line.

 

[bernotas22]

bet 2,500 litas on the lions to win @1.7 odds boy are the lions making me some green which comes out to winning 1,750 litas or $687 US anyone else bet on my favorite team in the NFL and making that green?

 

[thebigdawg]

http://itsalock.wordpress.com/2013/10/15/botch/

Recapping the weekend.

 

[thebigdawg]

My plays for the weekend.

http://itsalock.wordpress.com/2013/10/18/road-warrior/

 

[R3DRANG3R]

heres my early parlay

bet 5.00 to win 137.80

49ers -4 vs Titans
49ers vs Titans Over 40
Chargers vs Jaguars Over 45.5
Cowboys +115(ml) vs Eagles
Patriots -4 vs Jets

 

[RNG]

heres my early parlay

bet 5.00 to win 137.80

49ers -4 vs Titans
49ers vs Titans Over 40
Chargers vs Jaguars Over 45.5
Cowboys +115(ml) vs Eagles
Patriots -4 vs Jets

I like this except chargers vs Jags over 45.5. I dont think Jags will score many points lol

 

[TheKid84]

I like this except chargers vs Jags over 45.5. I dont think Jags will score many points lol

I don't think I agree. They've got Justin Blackmon back for the third week in a row. Now, I fully understand there is only so much 1 person can do for a team sport that involves 11 on the field at a time, but look at his production and the team's. In the two weeks he has been on the field, they've scored a total of 39 points. The four weeks prior to it, a piss poor 31. Charger's DEF is suspect, and 3 TD's by the Jags is a safe bet in my opinion. I imagine both Blackmon and MJD get in the endzone, and the Chargers winning with the score going over 45.5.

But there's only one way to find out!! Lets win some money!!

 

[jordanbillie]

So did OP go busto?

 

[R3DRANG3R]

bet 20.00 to win 110.72
49ers -3.5 vs Titans
Broncos -6.5 vs Colts
Patriots -4 vs Jets

 

[OzExorcist]

Not my best weekend so far - got let down by Chicago, New England, Detroit and Baltimore... and Atlanta didn't beat the spread Thursday night. Thank gawd KC hung on! Had wins on San Diego and Dallas too, and have Denver to beat Indi shortly, but it'll be a losing weekend either way.

Oh well, next week

 

[RNG]

I don't think I agree. They've got Justin Blackmon back for the third week in a row. Now, I fully understand there is only so much 1 person can do for a team sport that involves 11 on the field at a time, but look at his production and the team's. In the two weeks he has been on the field, they've scored a total of 39 points. The four weeks prior to it, a piss poor 31. Charger's DEF is suspect, and 3 TD's by the Jags is a safe bet in my opinion. I imagine both Blackmon and MJD get in the endzone, and the Chargers winning with the score going over 45.5.

But there's only one way to find out!! Lets win some money!!

You cant trust the Jags lol

 

[OzExorcist]

Apparently I can't trust the Broncos either

 

[thebigdawg]

Recapping my horrid weekend, and give an early prediction for Thursday Night Football.

http://itsalock.wordpress.com/2013/10/21/skunked/

 

[jordanbillie]

Seriously. Betting sports is evil. I suggest stopping before you lose a ton.

 

[TheKid84]

Seriously. Betting sports is evil. I suggest stopping before you lose a ton.

Couldn't one say the same thing about poker? (And I'm sure many have) I've been betting on football since preseason, and I'm up more in sports betting than I am in poker winnings in that span. So much for that losing 'a ton' thing. It's much like any money management thing, use in moderation.

Why must people come to threads like this and push their beliefs on others? I've never understood it... It's almost like the Jehovah's Witness people knocking on your door, unwanted, and trying to "share the good news".

 

[jordanbillie]

Because this is a poker forum and we are here to help each other. Betting sports is the same thing as playing blackjack or roulette. You are betting on an outcome that you have no control over and the house takes 10%. It is impossible to win. I have seen it happen way to many times; someone goes on a heater then proceeds to donate everything back. Stop while you are ahead, sports betting is nothing like poker.

 

[jordanbillie]

As proven by the OP going busto.

 

[bernotas22]

Because this is a poker forum and we are here to help each other. Betting sports is the same thing as playing blackjack or roulette. You are betting on an outcome that you have no control over and the house takes 10%. It is impossible to win. I have seen it happen way to many times; someone goes on a heater then proceeds to donate everything back. Stop while you are ahead, sports betting is nothing like poker.

Agreed it's really not that's why I bet very rarely and only on lock picks in my eyes or for fun, and yes it's kind of created with the lines and stuff that no matter the outcome the house still wins, poker is different

 

[OzExorcist]

...no matter the outcome the house still wins, poker is different

That's not technically correct - on either count.

First of all poker is actually no different to the description you've just given of sports betting: in poker the house really does always win regardless of the outcome.

But if a sports book doesn't do their job right it's certainly possible for them to lose. It doesn't happen often, especially over the long run, because they tend to be pretty good at their jobs. But it's certainly possible.

Sports betting isn't quite the same as playing casino table games against the house, and there ARE people who've made a professional living from sports betting, just are people who make a living from professional poker. Haralabos Voulgaris is probably the best know one in the poker world since he's a high stakes poker player too. Here's a (long) article on him from earlier this year: http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/dollars/post/_/id/2935/meet-the-worlds-top-nba-gambler

Back OT: taking Carolina -5.5 tomorrow. Week 7 was horrible for me, but it sounds like it was horrible for everyone