Shoving with short stack

[miklcct]

How much should I trust the shove-fold charts? A lot of times when I have only very few BBs left, it becomes a game of flips when others can call my shove liberally. For example, with less than 2 BBs left and Ax, it is clearly a shove, then people will call with Kx and outdraw me.

Or even if I am not as bad, like 4 BB, a pair of Ts is clearly a shove and people like to call with Ax. Even when called by KQ it is basically a coin flip.

Mathematically it won't be a good idea try to survive a series of 50% to 70% draws compared to waiting for QQ+ or AK, AQ or similar, isn't it right, especially when the chip leaders aren't risking much of their placing? Where is the problem of my reasoning?

 

[monkeytilter]

How much should I trust the shove-fold charts? A lot of times when I have only very few BBs left, it becomes a game of flips when others can call my shove liberally. For example, with less than 2 BBs left and Ax, it is clearly a shove, then people will call with Kx and outdraw me.

Or even if I am not as bad, like 4 BB, a pair of Ts is clearly a shove and people like to call with Ax. Even when called by KQ it is basically a coin flip.

Mathematically it won't be a good idea try to survive a series of 50% to 70% draws compared to waiting for QQ+ or AK, AQ or similar, isn't it right, especially when the chip leaders aren't risking much of their placing? Where is the problem of my reasoning?

The problem is you will most likely go broke before AK/AQ/QQ+ is dealt to you.

It's better to shove before you get too short as you have no fold equity at 2 or 3BB. There is often luck later on in tournaments, the skill comes in getting to the "later on" often.

If you shove TT at 4BB and get called by Ax you should be cheering, yes you are going to lose some proportion of the time, but you got it in good and that's poker.

You can shove as per the charts (I wouldn't do so above 12BB though), most are written for you shoving into 1 person so make sure you are reading your chart(s) right.

Calling, I'd be tighter than most charts as most people don't shove wide enough, but adjust if you see someone shoving wide (take note of what players are shoving and calling with and at what stack depths!)

 

[nabmom]

In poker there is rarely a “you just always do this” situation. Because a lot depends upon how close you are to the prize bubble, the makeup of your table, etc.
Shove charts exist because they are using math to indicate what move gives you the best odds. Your odds of a pair of tens beating a random call is higher than your odds of getting a premium hand before you blind out. But there still is that element of luck.
So remember that losing a given hand doesn’t mean you made the wrong move mathematically. You also want to avoid getting very short stacked because you lose all your fold equity.

 

[miklcct]

You also want to avoid getting very short stacked because you lose all your fold equity.

In the late stage of the tournament, the average stack is sometimes like only 7 BB, so everyone is waiting for people to bust out. Maybe I have about 4 BB, and I am so scared of pushing something like A7o, even at middle position, because I would be the dog whenever I get called (it is basically a gamble no one behind me has a good hand - A7 vs A8 is nearly a complete loss since the A acts as a blocker), and there is still some good chance I can get a better hand in the coming 3 orbits.

Then the blind increased, my 4 BB becomes only 2.6 BB. After 1 orbit I have only got 1 BB left. I can no longer afford to wait.

I just played a satellite tournament earlier this evening with 5 winners. The majority of the time I was in survival mode, with my stack just a few BB. I made it to the final table just playing premium hands, but eventually got blinded out (forced all in with 0.9 BB), got luck in the draw (4 cards on the board in the same suit matching one of my two cards), then after a few orbits, when the blinds increased again and I got down to 1.7 BB, I shoved my AT and lost to Kx call, failing to survive to the bubble.