$10 NL HE 6-max: Facing a Pot-Sized River Bet with an Overpair

NL Holdem 0,10(BB)
CO (100BBs) [VPIP: 22,2% | PFR: 19,4% | AGG: 36,4% | hands: 296]
BTN (315BBs) [VPIP: 47,1% | PFR: 15,4% | AGG: 19,8% | Flop Agg: 20,5% | Turn Agg: 22,2% | River Agg: 16,4% | 3Bet: 2,3% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 293]
SB (158,3BBs) [VPIP: 22% | PFR: 8,9% | AGG: 24,6% | Hands: 372]
HERO (130,5BBs)
HJ (113,8BBs) [VPIP: 26,3% | PFR: 21,8% | AGG: 32,6% | Hands: 3369]

Dealt to Hero: A:club: A:heart:

HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Calls 1BBs, SB Calls 0,5BBs, HERO Raises To 6BBs, BTN Calls 5BBs, SB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [9,58 effective]
Flop (13BBs):
HERO Bets 6BBs (Rem. Stack: 118,5BBs), BTN Calls 6BBs (Rem. Stack: 303BBs)

Turn (25BBs):
HERO Bets 14BBs (Rem. Stack: 104,5BBs), BTN Calls 14BBs (Rem. Stack: 289BBs)

River (53BBs):
HERO Checks, BTN Bets 50,4BBs (Rem. Stack: 238,6BBs), HERO ? (Rem. Stack: 54,1BBs)


How should Hero reason through the decision on the river?

Preflop
Obviously we need to isolate the limper with AA, and I like your sizing of 6BB.

Flop
Not the best flop, since he will have missed it so much. So I could actually see checking here to allow him a chance to bluff and/or hope for a disconnected high card on the turn, that might allow him to catch up to a no good top pair. Like turn is a J, and now you can easily get two streets of value from hands like KJ, QJ, JT etc. But ok you bet, and this is definitely not a terrible play either.

Turn
Not the best card, since straights got there. As played I think, I prefer to check now. Betting again can be ok, but then you need to be willing to fold to a raise.

River
I definitely think, you have run out of value now, so I agree with your check. When he bet almost full pot, you have a bluff catcher. So once again the question is, underbluffed or overbluffed spot? And here I think, the answer is much more clear, that its an underbluffed spot. The Villain has taken nothing but passive actions so far, all his stats are passive, and now he bet almost half a starting stack on the river.

The sizing itself is also a tell, because its basically like a store selling something for $99 instead of rounding up the price to $100. They do this, because they want you to buy, and its the same, when someone bet almost full pot in poker. He wants as much value as possible, but he is scared, that you will fold to much, if he bet full pot or overbet.

So in the other hand with AK I dont think, its a massive mistake to fold or call given the opponents stats and the fact, he overbet jammed, which gives max fold equity. But in this hand I think, calling would be a spew. You need to be good 35% of the time to call, and I think, you are good maybe 5% of the time given everything, I already wrote.

Checked the spoiler, and as expected he was not bluffing or betting a worse hand for value. Given that he called both flop and turn with a weak pair, I guess, we can say, that everything was fine here except the river call. Of course its annoying to have to fold AA on the river, but its less annoying than paying off a fish with half a starting stack, because he hit his random two pair on the river. If he had instead of , he would have checked back, and you would have won a decent pot at showdown. So its not like, check-folding the river out of position means, that you are giving up.

AntsRock said:

NL Holdem 0,10(BB)
CO (100BBs) [VPIP: 22,2% | PFR: 19,4% | AGG: 36,4% | Hands: 296]
BTN (315BBs) [VPIP: 47,1% | PFR: 15,4% | AGG: 19,8% | Flop Agg: 20,5% | Turn Agg: 22,2% | River Agg: 16,4% | 3Bet: 2,3% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 293]
SB (158,3BBs) [VPIP: 22% | PFR: 8,9% | AGG: 24,6% | Hands: 372]
HERO (130,5BBs)
HJ (113,8BBs) [VPIP: 26,3% | PFR: 21,8% | AGG: 32,6% | Hands: 3369]

Dealt to Hero: A:club: A:heart:

HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Calls 1BBs, SB Calls 0,5BBs, HERO Raises To 6BBs, BTN Calls 5BBs, SB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [9,58 effective]
Flop (13BBs):
HERO Bets 6BBs (Rem. Stack: 118,5BBs), BTN Calls 6BBs (Rem. Stack: 303BBs)

Turn (25BBs):
HERO Bets 14BBs (Rem. Stack: 104,5BBs), BTN Calls 14BBs (Rem. Stack: 289BBs)

River (53BBs):
HERO Checks, BTN Bets 50,4BBs (Rem. Stack: 238,6BBs), HERO ? (Rem. Stack: 54,1BBs)

Spoiler: SD

BTN shows:

BTN wins: 144,2BBs

How should Hero reason through the decision on the river?

Click to expand...

this is one way to reason thru the hand
1 range the BTN what hands does the BTN not have preflop? Which pairs do not flat- which do? What hands call that hit this board? How would those hands play each street?
2 How does the nuts play each street? What nut hand wants to bet big expecting to get called on this river? this is a complex question because different V will play it this way for different reasons. think about your player pool.
3 We check river to call bluffs- this sizing should have bluffs in it what are those bluffs? Does your player pool have a high enough frequency of bluffs to call. It does not matter if they bluff only that they bluff enough. 1/3 of V range should be bluffs for us to call if the V is bluffing 30% instead of 33% we can fold for long term ROI. Seems crazy I know.

🤔🤓

Against a sticky button opponent, I would raise with the goal of isolating them. Your sizing seems right to me; I’d go with 7.5–8 BB. Does the villain ever fold? The flop is good because, on a board like this, strong connections are rare; a large bet size can polarize ranges and ultimately, the plan remains the same.
On the turn, you chose to fire a second barrel. The sizing is reasonable and represents a hand seeking protection. Here, your range is likely weighted more toward value hands than bluffs.
You checked the river, which seems like the right move. You hold a club blocker, which is slightly detrimental to your range because it means the villain can't have semi-bluffs containing the Ace of Clubs. A hand like 5-6 got there on the river, but there shouldn't be many of those combos. Blocking A-5 isn't particularly relevant, though a wide-ranging villain could hold all those combos.
Calling as you did is the correct play. You have a bluff-catcher, and the villain will occasionally beat you with random hands like 7-8, etc. You need to pay attention to the villain's aggression factor on the river. If we trust the stats, we can see the villain isn't very aggressive in that spot, implying a tighter range. The same applies to their 3-bet range, which tends to be quite tight. All of this gives you an idea of the best course of action on each street and how the villain's range narrows by the time it reaches the river.

eetenor said:

this is one way to reason thru the hand
1 range the BTN what hands does the BTN not have preflop? Which pairs do not flat- which do? What hands call that hit this board? How would those hands play each street?
2 How does the nuts play each street? What nut hand wants to bet big expecting to get called on this river? this is a complex question because different V will play it this way for different reasons. think about your player pool.
3 We check river to call bluffs- this sizing should have bluffs in it what are those bluffs? Does your player pool have a high enough frequency of bluffs to call. It does not matter if they bluff only that they bluff enough. 1/3 of V range should be bluffs for us to call if the V is bluffing 30% instead of 33% we can fold for long term ROI. Seems crazy I know.

🤔🤓

Click to expand...

Frankly speaking, I can't say with 100% confidence that similar players never bluff the river. At that moment, I thought he was left with quite a few suited club overcards without showdown value that he could try to push Hero off with. But I agree, this specific opponent doesn't bluff often enough.

gustav197poker said:

Against a sticky button opponent, I would raise with the goal of isolating them. Your sizing seems right to me; I’d go with 7.5–8 BB. Does the villain ever fold? The flop is good because, on a board like this, strong connections are rare; a large bet size can polarize ranges and ultimately, the plan remains the same.
On the turn, you chose to fire a second barrel. The sizing is reasonable and represents a hand seeking protection. Here, your range is likely weighted more toward value hands than bluffs.
You checked the river, which seems like the right move. You hold a club blocker, which is slightly detrimental to your range because it means the villain can't have semi-bluffs containing the Ace of Clubs. A hand like 5-6 got there on the river, but there shouldn't be many of those combos. Blocking A-5 isn't particularly relevant, though a wide-ranging villain could hold all those combos.
Calling as you did is the correct play. You have a bluff-catcher, and the villain will occasionally beat you with random hands like 7-8, etc. You need to pay attention to the villain's aggression factor on the river. If we trust the stats, we can see the villain isn't very aggressive in that spot, implying a tighter range. The same applies to their 3-bet range, which tends to be quite tight. All of this gives you an idea of the best course of action on each street and how the villain's range narrows by the time it reaches the river.

Click to expand...

At the time of the hand, street-by-street aggression stats weren't available, even though that metric paints a very clear picture of the opponent's river behavior.