$10 NLHE 6-max: 3bet pot all middle cards, can I barrel with 99?
27k hands at 10nl and I've flat 99 against the button 9 times so I'm no use. It would be very very difficult to provide sufficient statistical evidence so asking for numbers is close to pointless. It's one of those where it may never converge. That being said I'm down half a BI.
If I take TT-77 which I all consider essentially the same then I'm up 0.1 BI with only 25 hands. Again as pointless.
It may never converge but we must try to play as optimally as we feel we can.
If I take TT-77 which I all consider essentially the same then I'm up 0.1 BI with only 25 hands. Again as pointless.
It may never converge but we must try to play as optimally as we feel we can.
lol bgomez. okay this is ridiculous, you shouldnt have to question things like this. Next you guys will want to see if i profit when i call JJ in the blinds.
graph is when i call a co or btn steal, in the blinds with 99,88,77. Note how i included two hands that will start getting significantly worse to cold call just to get a bigger sample, (like i'd probably tend to just fold 66-22) and i left out TT because that will make the WR even higher. Bottom of pic is 99 on its own (not huge sample) Hands all from 50nl - 200nl.
Oh, and also remember that in each of these hands i posted 1bb in the big blinds and 0.5bb in the small blind, so probably an average of around -0.75bb/hand or -37.5 BB/100 to start with so i should really add that 37.5BB/100 onto the WR. Whatever, its not hard to tell its not even close.
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graph is when i call a co or btn steal, in the blinds with 99,88,77. Note how i included two hands that will start getting significantly worse to cold call just to get a bigger sample, (like i'd probably tend to just fold 66-22) and i left out TT because that will make the WR even higher. Bottom of pic is 99 on its own (not huge sample) Hands all from 50nl - 200nl.
Oh, and also remember that in each of these hands i posted 1bb in the big blinds and 0.5bb in the small blind, so probably an average of around -0.75bb/hand or -37.5 BB/100 to start with so i should really add that 37.5BB/100 onto the WR. Whatever, its not hard to tell its not even close.
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fwiw
I have a 91 hand sample where I flatted 77-TT from the blinds facing a steal for a combined lossrate of -47BB/100.
I have a 124 hand sample where I 3bet 77-TT from the blinds facing a steal for a combined winrate of 80BB/100.
All the hands were from my old FTP db and all were from 25 and 50nl FR.
I have a 91 hand sample where I flatted 77-TT from the blinds facing a steal for a combined lossrate of -47BB/100.
I have a 124 hand sample where I 3bet 77-TT from the blinds facing a steal for a combined winrate of 80BB/100.
All the hands were from my old FTP db and all were from 25 and 50nl FR.
The better you are then the more you'll win flatting these types of hands.
It's interesting how I pretty much always dump 22-66 too. 77-TT/JJ are another class as you end up with second pair a lot more.
I think we're always going to make a profit 3betting them simply from folds but I think we'll make a similar profit from 22-66 and then we can pick up EV from flatting these inbetween hands.
It's interesting how I pretty much always dump 22-66 too. 77-TT/JJ are another class as you end up with second pair a lot more.
I think we're always going to make a profit 3betting them simply from folds but I think we'll make a similar profit from 22-66 and then we can pick up EV from flatting these inbetween hands.
lol I was quoting bgomez but it seems to have disappeared.
"So is WV's evidence more compelling than Acky's or do they both have equal merit?
Can it be that one is better than the other in these spots?
You can't just take one persons evidence and dismiss the other."
"So is WV's evidence more compelling than Acky's or do they both have equal merit?
Can it be that one is better than the other in these spots?
You can't just take one persons evidence and dismiss the other."
I'm at least a little disconcerted about the WR (LR) when flatting. Honestly I can't believe that flatting them isn't +EV so I must just suck. My point all along has been that the EV difference between 3betting them vs flatting them will be negligible thus the 3bet preflop is by no means horrible as some have suggested.
The thing is, flatting in the blinds is one of the toughest spots in poker so if you make mistakes you can end up losing a lot of money. It's also a spot which forces you to learn quickly and improve a lot.
So if you suck you're going to lose money, if you don't then it's a spot where you can eek out a little more EV and it will also really boost your redline (most redline losses simply come from folding your blinds).
I love this quote:
Using both your skill and relying on the strength of your hand is obviously the spot that's going to be most difficult.
So if you suck you're going to lose money, if you don't then it's a spot where you can eek out a little more EV and it will also really boost your redline (most redline losses simply come from folding your blinds).
I love this quote:
Using both your skill and relying on the strength of your hand is obviously the spot that's going to be most difficult.
This thread is bizzarre.
If villain folds enough that 3betting 99 is EV+ 3betting 72o would be EV+. We don't 3bet every single hand here though as even the thickest of villains will adjust, we pick the best hands to bluff which we would fold otherwise. I would not fold 99 otherwise so I may as well pick something I would be folding.
If villain folds enough that 3betting 99 is EV+ 3betting 72o would be EV+. We don't 3bet every single hand here though as even the thickest of villains will adjust, we pick the best hands to bluff which we would fold otherwise. I would not fold 99 otherwise so I may as well pick something I would be folding.
I just think the WR increase in flatting is not negligible because i cant remember ever seeing a reg at 50-200 in the last 6 months 3betting 99 when not against a huge fish. I'd suspect there is a good reason. I also am very sure that your 3bet bluffing WR will be very very small, if not negative slightly (not a bad thing because you are overcoming the blinds still)
And for completeness, here is the exact same spots for bb and sb and my win rates when i choose to 3bet as a bluff (would be pretty much identical to 99 if i chose to 3bet bluff it for obv reasons)
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Everyone should just read this. It's pretty much the best post on poker ever as it really gets into understanding how the blinds work and affect your bottom line and they're the most important spots in poker by a mile. How to cold cold call, 3bet bluffing. Also a lot of other stuff.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78/micro-stakes-full-ring/cotw-last-red-line-post-ever-791734/
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78/micro-stakes-full-ring/cotw-last-red-line-post-ever-791734/
WVHillbilly said:
except 3bing them you win at what was it, 80bb/100? when flatting both acky and i came up with at least double that. and our samples are pretty much the same size (when you consider mine is solely for 99 and ackys is 77-99) yours is relatively smaller, but i think we can go with it anyway and call it even considering you include TT which adds more bb/100 and 77-88 which add slightly less bb/100. its by no means conclusive, but i think its more than enough for you to stop writing it off as negligible