$2 NLHE 6-max: Was that a good fold? Villian was marked as Regular.
It is close spot. I would tend to call here for several reasons:
1. Maybe this is not top of your range, but still this is tptk, so if you are folding this here, than it means that you call only with hands like any nine, 22, 33 (TT you would probably raise preflop). I think on such board you will be exploited.
2. You didn't write on what number of hands the stats are calculated, which is quite important here. While Af is very low here, this is also draw heavy board. Villain could be aggressive with many hands here, like 78s, JQs, JKs, JQo etc.
3. If you called the turn, you should called the river. The only hands that really improved here is any nine, draws have bricked. If somebody is barrelling, you have to assume that he will barrel on the river as well either for value or bluff. So you cannot call the turn and then fold the river when all draws that made sense to bluff bricked.
I wrote that this is close and here are the reasons that imo make this call a bit tough. You have Ad, which actually you really want him to have. With his stats it makes a lot of sense for the villain to continue with any suited ace here. Because he can have any Axd in his UTG open range or at least A2-A5 and AT-AK. Also his AF is low, but then I am not sure what was the number of hands on the HUD. But then you should probably fold on the turn if you think he want be aggressive with draw only.
Bottom line - when calling the turn here you should have already clear decision to call on pretty much any card that is not diamond and maybe K or 6 as those cards are most likely to complete his draws.
1. Maybe this is not top of your range, but still this is tptk, so if you are folding this here, than it means that you call only with hands like any nine, 22, 33 (TT you would probably raise preflop). I think on such board you will be exploited.
2. You didn't write on what number of hands the stats are calculated, which is quite important here. While Af is very low here, this is also draw heavy board. Villain could be aggressive with many hands here, like 78s, JQs, JKs, JQo etc.
3. If you called the turn, you should called the river. The only hands that really improved here is any nine, draws have bricked. If somebody is barrelling, you have to assume that he will barrel on the river as well either for value or bluff. So you cannot call the turn and then fold the river when all draws that made sense to bluff bricked.
I wrote that this is close and here are the reasons that imo make this call a bit tough. You have Ad, which actually you really want him to have. With his stats it makes a lot of sense for the villain to continue with any suited ace here. Because he can have any Axd in his UTG open range or at least A2-A5 and AT-AK. Also his AF is low, but then I am not sure what was the number of hands on the HUD. But then you should probably fold on the turn if you think he want be aggressive with draw only.
Bottom line - when calling the turn here you should have already clear decision to call on pretty much any card that is not diamond and maybe K or 6 as those cards are most likely to complete his draws.
Careful there, this assumes nano players are balanced and we are not. Calling turn and folding river is called exploitable fold. Valid accordingly xflix and slipsuit even gives a rule that you need to beat part of villain's value range to call 3 barrel.sarniak said:
Had I realised number 1 was AF and not 3bet I would have said folding is standard play without more information. Imo Biggest mistake in this hand is that after 350 hands we have so little information.
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I still say it's a call. If he's a regular and has seen you play like this, then he's probably got a decent note or two on you. It could've very well been a chop, but I don't see him holding a hand that beats you. Regs will be playing exploitable poker here too, so if he had JJ+, he likely raises a little more PF.
What do you put villain's range at? I see a lot of Tx in villain's range; there are possible 9x hands, but there are also 44-88, sc's and one gappers that could've kept up aggression.
I think Equilab is saying this is a clear call, though we could likely narrow down villain's range based on the play, if he's a reg and those are all the notes we have, we have to assume that he'd barrel through this entire range because of what he may know about you and because it almost all hits a piece, just none of it was really good enough to beat you very often.
What do you put villain's range at? I see a lot of Tx in villain's range; there are possible 9x hands, but there are also 44-88, sc's and one gappers that could've kept up aggression.
I think Equilab is saying this is a clear call, though we could likely narrow down villain's range based on the play, if he's a reg and those are all the notes we have, we have to assume that he'd barrel through this entire range because of what he may know about you and because it almost all hits a piece, just none of it was really good enough to beat you very often.
Nobody forgets that, but based on the stats we have and the info given, we give you the analysis necessary. Do you have UTG stats on villain to share? Does he play position? We don't know that. I gave him a 22%PFR range like you stated; 2nl players, even regs, rarely understand position.
Plus, even if I give him a top 10% range, you're still a 3:1 favorite at the end.
Plus, even if I give him a top 10% range, you're still a 3:1 favorite at the end.
$2 NLHE 6-max: Was that a good fold? Villian was marked as Regular.
You guys are including his UTG open range, but some of that range drops on the flop. Half of the cards he opens UTG he won't be triple barrelling, especially on 10 High board. Hands like 77, 88, AJo and AQo,KQo and KJo he surely may Cbet and double-barrel, but I doubt it he'll triple barrel them.
Just because someone opens a certain amount of cards doesn't mean he's triple barreling the exact same cards. In fact A LOT of that range drops.
You guys are including his UTG open range, but some of that range drops on the flop. Half of the cards he opens UTG he won't be triple barrelling, especially on 10 High board. Hands like 77, 88, AJo and AQo,KQo and KJo he surely may Cbet and double-barrel, but I doubt it he'll triple barrel them.
Just because someone opens a certain amount of cards doesn't mean he's triple barreling the exact same cards. In fact A LOT of that range drops.
Why? What notes do you have on villain that support this?
You're talking like players in the micros don't make mistakes.
If you were simply going to defend your decision and not take any other viewpoints into account, then there was no point to this.
Why wouldn't villain triple barrel small pp's? Why wouldn't villain turn sc's and one gappers that missed into a triple barrel bluff? I know his AF is low, but that just means that, in position, the player calls stuff instead of betting or raising; AF isn't a great indicator and I think too much emphasis is being put on it. Folding more would make his AF higher, too, and his VP is pretty high and has a wide enough gap from PFR that I just see loose-neutral reg. This means OOP he's bad enough to keep betting with worse and in position he's bad enough to keep calling with worse.
And here you'll see that in Equilab, even in a worst-case scenario for you where villain's only playing the best hands that could triple barrel here, you're still a 55% favorite, and should have called.
You're talking like players in the micros don't make mistakes.
If you were simply going to defend your decision and not take any other viewpoints into account, then there was no point to this.
Why wouldn't villain triple barrel small pp's? Why wouldn't villain turn sc's and one gappers that missed into a triple barrel bluff? I know his AF is low, but that just means that, in position, the player calls stuff instead of betting or raising; AF isn't a great indicator and I think too much emphasis is being put on it. Folding more would make his AF higher, too, and his VP is pretty high and has a wide enough gap from PFR that I just see loose-neutral reg. This means OOP he's bad enough to keep betting with worse and in position he's bad enough to keep calling with worse.
And here you'll see that in Equilab, even in a worst-case scenario for you where villain's only playing the best hands that could triple barrel here, you're still a 55% favorite, and should have called.
