$2 NLHE 6-max: River thin value bet decision 3bet pot OOP

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quant1986

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888Poker Snap, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $1.77 (89 bb) VPIP/PFR/3bet/AF 27/17/3.4/4.2 over 130 hands
MP: $0.80 (40 bb)
CO: $0.56 (28 bb)
BU: $1.10 (55 bb)
SB (Hero): $2.74 (137 bb)
BB: $0.65 (33 bb) likely weak tight

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with J♠ J♥
UTG raises to $0.07, 3 players fold, Hero 3-bets to $0.22, BB calls $0.20, UTG calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.66) 9♣ A♣ 8♦ (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks

Turn: ($0.66) 2♠ (3 players)
Hero bets $0.21, BB folds, UTG calls $0.21

River: ($1.08) J♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

Would you prefer bet/fold on the river or check-call ?
 
I would definitely bet the river. Given how the hand played out, I'd put his range on Ax and maybe pocket prs lower than AA. He doesn't seem very aggressive, so I'd think even QQ could be in his range here.
 
Yeah tricky spot.
With those utg stats you would think he would be betting with his top pairs here. This is multiway as well so maybe he plays his draws this way.

I'd be more inclined to check call here to ensure we get to showdown and perhaps induce a bluff from our opponent.
 
Would make a thin value bet here as there are many Ax holdings that could arrive here this way and as pointed out just a middle pair is also a possibility. Better to bet fold then to check call as it looses a similar amount against a flush and it is inclined to win more against other holdings.
 
I would go for the bet/fold line myself as the hand played out.

I think most Aces would bet that wet flop 3 ways.

Checking gives our opponent control of the hand. I like a 30% pot sized bet and fold to a raise on the river. Maybe 25%. I'm not good with sizing but I like to lead the river here for sure.
 
Don't mind the flop check. Would have bet larger on turn personally, 50%. Always betting that river, sizing might vary any given day, anywhere from a thin bet around 30% to something up to 50%. Definitely prefer leaving those thin bets for the river though, not firing so low on the turn. Would absolutely have to consider folding to a raise on that river, but I'd rather do that than only bet one piddling 1/3 pot bet over three streets with what turned out to be a set of jacks! 🙂
 
Thanks everyone - I think bet/fold river should be a better line against general population. Agree not many Ax combos that villain has but TT or QQ should be in the range. Villain had KK with a club.
 
Like the turn bet and sizing... hate the river check. That's a std river bet. You're way ahead, it's more a matter of how much can you squeeze here against a clear QQ/KK/9x hand
 
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