$20 NLHE Full Ring: I can't see how I'm not ahead here

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The Shrog

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$20 NL HE Full Ring: I can't see how I'm not ahead here

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 11/8/2

MP3: $35 (140 bb)
Hero (CO): $25 (100 bb)
BTN: $37.25 (149 bb)
SB: $46.55 (186.2 bb)
BB: $7.25 (29 bb)
UTG+1: $26.10 (104.4 bb)
MP1: $5 (20 bb)
MP2: $25 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with J
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J
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2 folds, MP2 raises to $1, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, MP2 calls $2

Flop: ($6.35) Q
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8
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Q
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(2 players)
MP2 bets $4

Results: $6.35 pot ($6.35 rake)

Villain has donk bet 1 time in 4 opportunities over 222 hands. I don't see anyone flatting AA/KK PF. I DOUBT he's doing this with AQ. Doesn't this have to be 1010/99 or some kind of air? What's our action?
 
You don't think AQ raises and then flats a 3-bet pf? Seems standard to me.
 
You don't think AQ raises and then flats a 3-bet pf? Seems standard to me.
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1. That's not what I meant. I doubt he's donking into me with AQ in this spot.
2. Opening AQ and flatting a 3bet is not standard imo...actually, I think it's pretty bad.
 
I would agree that Opening AQ then flatting OOP would be bad. I would think you are ahead here. Villian could be betting a suited 8, giving him two pair and backdoor flush. I don't think a Queen donks into you here, much more likely to check raise.
 
Do villians really try to play that tricky? I guess I've seen a lot of straightforward play lately. I don't rule out AQ here at all. Check raising shows so much strength and gets little value out of a thinking player, but perhaps I'm giving villian here too much credit.
 
Do villians really try to play that tricky? I guess I've seen a lot of straightforward play lately. I don't rule out AQ here at all. Check raising shows so much strength and gets little value out of a thinking player, but perhaps I'm giving villian here too much credit.
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I think if he plays AQ in this spot, he's ch/calling and repping a medium pair, but certainly not donk betting. Anyway, back to the question...are we good?
 
Really interested in this, been thinking about villain donk bets and what they mean...

AQ/KQ - I don't think they're donk betting here either, whether or not they flatted a 3bet.

I think we're good - I think medium pp's (and here, 8xs makes sense) sometimes donk in to see if we whiffed a big A (dg, zach, and ninelions all suggested variations on this line of thinking in the microstakes thread, and it feels right), but looking forward to what others think.
 
The Shrog said:
I think if he plays AQ in this spot, he's ch/calling and repping a medium pair, but certainly not donk betting. Anyway, back to the question...are we good?
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Yeah i think we might be good here but i would still just flat.
Either he is beeing tricky with Q or he has a under pair,99-TT,naked 8 or some random air but if we raise where shuting down every thing but the hands that beat us.
So yeah i probably just flat here and see the turn and try to get a cheap showdown.
If we are ahead villain never has more then 6outs so i dont mind beeing passive here.
 
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