$20 NLHE Full Ring: QQ oop in 3bet pot

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js520

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Villains stats are 18/15/46afq over 424 hands. Out of the 6 hands hes previously been 3bet, he's 4bet twice, flatted twice and folded twice. One of the hands he flatted was 99 ip. He called the flop cbet on a board of QQ8, then checked it down on turn and river (there was an ace on turn).
Also his pfr in mp is 18% so he opens pretty wide.

UTG ($20)
MP1 ($20)
MP2 ($15)
CO ($20.33)
BTN ($20)
SB - Hero($26.34)
BB ($20)

Hero is dealt Qh,Qd

Preflop ($0.30)
1 fold, MP1 raises to $0.60, 1 fold, CO calls $0.60, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.40, 1 fold, MP1 calls $2.40, 1 fold

Flop ($5.32) is Jc,10s,7d
Hero bets $3, MP1 calls $3.

Turn ($11.02) is 5s
Hero?

Villain has $14.60 left and I have him covered.

I am a bit worried about a set here as I think TT/JJ are two of the most likely hands he would call a 3bet ip with. I also think he may peel one off here with AQ/99/88, maybe AK if he flats the 3bet with it. he would probably fold 99/88 if i bet and check down if i check. I think if I'm ahead there's no more value to be had (doubt he would call 3bet with AJ but I'm not sure). So what's the plan for the rest of the hand?
 
shove > $5.50 surely baudib?

'One of the hands he flatted was 99 ip. He called the flop cbet on a board of QQ8, then checked it down on turn and river (there was an ace on turn).'

JJ/TT are there, but so is Jx imo and gutshot + overcards (AQ/AK/KQ) even if we have blockers to some of them.

ship it imo.
 
because..

explanations are needed or people don't learn.

not arguing btw, I disagree but without explanations I can't understand your point of view.
 
He has a range of hands that call the flop. What does his continuing range look like when you bet $14 compared to $5? Checking is infinitely better than shoving.
 
I agree with baudib sometimes its ok to check the reason to this is, he can have some funky too pair, or set, or even be flushing if you check here and he checks back and a blank comes you can recheck it to him and than he will bluff at it and you can call depending on his bet sizing.
 
c/c is ok, just imo the boards pretty connected and he's gonna check back the turn a lot.. and then we get bad rivers and make bad decisions.

$5.50 doesn't make sense though since he knows he has no FE so we might as well shove and get it in now.

we only get value from floats when we check the turn, and as seen in the past post he checks down all his SD hands that we probably beat, so we're gonna end up betting the river anyway if we want value.

I think getting it in now beats hoping for a brick river, and I think he folds everything marginal on the river anyway since we never have bluffs/semi-bluffs when we take that line, so shoving before the board gets bad for both our ranges is better.


and no, we aren't checking the turn AND river to hope he spazzes.. it won't happen enough with this villain.
 
Shoving turn is horrible. Rethink a lot of stuff if you believe you should shove this turn (Barring read that he'll hero with 99/88 type stuff). We have the smallest overpair in a 3-bet pot, stacks get in when we're beat.

Bet 1/2 pot or less to get him to come along with the weakest parts of his range -- he still doesn't have odds to call to hit a gutter or even a gutter + overs. Folding out that part and getting it in vs. the top makes no sense whatsoever.
 
yeah I get it, and understand that a wider part of his range comes in when we bet smaller.. still think most competent players fold 99/88 on that turn, and probably only continue with the stronger bits of their range.

+ we're OOP so can't really see us doing too well on a lot of rivers.

so you'd bet $5.50 on the turn and do what on brick rivers? we still have the worst overpair so are we shoving for value, or c/c or c/f?
 
Campbell92 said:
$5.50 doesn't make sense though since he knows he has no FE so we might as well shove and get it in now.
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Sorry, I might have missed something crucial here since it's 8:15am for me, but how do we have no FE against his range? I'm inclined to think we have FE, but like baudib I'd have to assume that villain's folds are weighted to hands we beat, and that villain's range is decently elastic here.

So betting huge only accomplishes the goal of making him shove everything we DO beat.
 
first instinct was to shove turn which cant be terrible but im going with half pot turn put rest in on the river. I think most people will fold 99 and 88 to a turn bet either way so there is merits to shoving to get him to call KJ,QJ,AJ stuff that might fold river if a scare card hits but theres so little left on the river i think we mayaswel just half pot it and its 20nl people might get stationy with stuff they shouldnt anyways.
 
acky100 said:
first instinct was to shove turn which cant be terrible but im going with half pot turn put rest in on the river. I think most people will fold 99 and 88 to a turn bet either way so there is merits to shoving to get him to call KJ,QJ,AJ stuff that might fold river if a scare card hits but theres so little left on the river i think we mayaswel just half pot it and its 20nl people might get stationy with stuff they shouldnt anyways.
Click to expand...

My thoughts were that KJ/QJ/AJ would not call the 3bet, hence there is nothing we can get value from. Or am I giving this guy too much credit folding what he should preflop?
 
Nah if he's calling 3bets they're the exact hands he will be calling them with, he will probably 4bet a polarised range like AK,QQ+ and other junk if he ever 4bet blufs and call with stuff he doesnt wanna 4bet call off with.
 
acky100 said:
Nah if he's calling 3bets they're the exact hands he will be calling them with, he will probably 4bet a polarised range like AK,QQ+ and other junk if he ever 4bet blufs and call with stuff he doesnt wanna 4bet call off with.
Click to expand...

+1
 
Well he's only called 3bets twice out of a very small sample of 6, so why would we assume he calls with these kind of hands?
 
why wouldnt we? Its standard really. I'd assume that before id even 3bet him once as a default, the fact he's actually already called 2 3bets makes me even more certain, what else would he call with? Why dont you think he calls these types of hands?
 
Scourrge said:
Sorry, I might have missed something crucial here since it's 8:15am for me, but how do we have no FE against his range? I'm inclined to think we have FE, but like baudib I'd have to assume that villain's folds are weighted to hands we beat, and that villain's range is decently elastic here.

So betting huge only accomplishes the goal of making him shove everything we DO beat.
Click to expand...

he knows when he shoves over we're never folding for that much more, so we might as well shove ourselves.

we have FE obv, and of course he folds to shoves with the weaker bits of his range but I don't think his range widens enough to a smaller bet to make up for the times the river ruins or action or makes us make bad folds.

+ we miss value since he checks back his weak SD hands, either check or shove, $5.50 makes no sense to me tbh.
 
acky100 said:
why wouldnt we? Its standard really. I'd assume that before id even 3bet him once as a default, the fact he's actually already called 2 3bets makes me even more certain, what else would he call with? Why dont you think he calls these types of hands?
Click to expand...

Its standard to call 3bets with AJ/KJ/QJ? I thought it was bad to call 3bets with these kind of hands because the are easily dominated and in bad shape against opponents 3bet range. I would have thought the kind of hands he would call with would be something like 88-JJ and AQ, maybe AK. Far too narrow of a range?
 
tbh campbell, i think youre outlevelling yourself considering vil is a 20NL player. chances are he doesnt realise that shoving over has zero FE, let alone is thinking about any hand other than his own
 
js520 said:
Its standard to call 3bets with AJ/KJ/QJ? I thought it was bad to call 3bets with these kind of hands because the are easily dominated and in bad shape against opponents 3bet range. I would have thought the kind of hands he would call with would be something like 88-JJ and AQ, maybe AK. Far too narrow of a range?
Click to expand...

that assumes hes a good player, which imo is a bad assumption. if we play lots and havent seen him before, chances are hes bad. these hands arent good or bad to call 3bs with as a rule. dependent on villains 3b range, position, as well as your comparative postflop abilities.

also, with the amount hes called you so far, id say hes calling 3bs w/ just about ATC that he opened not for stealing purposes, ie all broadway, pps and sc;s
 
Campbell92 said:
he knows when he shoves over we're never folding for that much more, so we might as well shove ourselves.

we have FE obv, and of course he folds to shoves with the weaker bits of his range but I don't think his range widens enough to a smaller bet to make up for the times the river ruins or action or makes us make bad folds.

+ we miss value since he checks back his weak SD hands, either check or shove, $5.50 makes no sense to me tbh.
Click to expand...

I think I got confused by your wording - use of the word "he" instead of villain? I took it to mean hero... Carry on 🙂
 
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