$25 NL HE 6-max: Top Two Pair on SB vs Fish

"Hello, thanks everyone for your feedback.
NL Holdem 0,10(BB)
CO (34,6BBs) [VPIP: 36,6% | PFR: 4,9% | AGG: 25,7% | hands: 41]
BTN (153,9BBs) [VPIP: 51,5% | PFR: 3% | AGG: 42,4% | Flop Agg: 26,7% | Turn Agg: 75% | River Agg: 57,1% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 33]
SB HERO (103,6BBs)
BB (100BBs) [VPIP: 32,9% | PFR: 27,8% | AGG: 31,7% | Hands: 1037]
UTG (100,5BBs) [VPIP: 24,1% | PFR: 21,3% | AGG: 37,4% | Hands: 2360]
HJ (136,7BBs) [VPIP: 19,1% | PFR: 15,9% | AGG: 41,6% | Hands: 966]

Dealt to Hero: Q:diamond: K:club:

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Calls 1BBs, HERO Raises To 5BBs, BB Folds, BTN Calls 4BBs

Hero SPR on Flop: [8,96 effective]
Flop (11BBs): 5:diamond: K:spade: Q:club:
HERO Bets 13,5BBs (Rem. Stack: 85,1BBs), BTN Calls 13,5BBs (Rem. Stack: 135,4BBs)

Turn (38BBs): 5:diamond: K:spade: Q:club: T:diamond:
HERO - ?
I have a few questions. What should my bet size have been on the flop? Also, do we want to bet the turn, and if yes, how much?

Preflop
You found a very good 25NL table here with two huge fish on your direct right. One of them limps his BTN, and yes for sure I am raising KQo here, since you are way ahead of a 50% VPIP limping range. You are out of position, but you likely also have a big skill edge, which can counter at least some of that handicap.

Flop
I think, we can throw solver analysis out the window here, since you are playing against such a huge fish, and for that reason I love the overbet. You flopped top two, so why not try to play for stacks? And since he is so passive preflop, starting out with a overbet is a better way to do this than trying to go for a check-raise.

Turn
AJ and J9 got there, but honestly if he is calling an overbet on the flop with just a gutshot and then nails it on the turn, he need to get paid, so good for him. And there are plenty of other hands, you still beat, which will call another bet like KJ, KT, QJ, JT etc. So for me the plan here is still to stack off, which mean, sizing here is largely a question of pot geometry. If you go to 25-30BB, then pot will be 88-98BB, and you will have 55-60BB left, which sets it up for an easy river jam.

AntsRock said:

"Hello, thanks everyone for your feedback.
NL Holdem 0,10(BB)
CO (34,6BBs) [VPIP: 36,6% | PFR: 4,9% | AGG: 25,7% | Hands: 41]
BTN (153,9BBs) [VPIP: 51,5% | PFR: 3% | AGG: 42,4% | Flop Agg: 26,7% | Turn Agg: 75% | River Agg: 57,1% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 33]
SB HERO (103,6BBs)
BB (100BBs) [VPIP: 32,9% | PFR: 27,8% | AGG: 31,7% | Hands: 1037]
UTG (100,5BBs) [VPIP: 24,1% | PFR: 21,3% | AGG: 37,4% | Hands: 2360]
HJ (136,7BBs) [VPIP: 19,1% | PFR: 15,9% | AGG: 41,6% | Hands: 966]

Dealt to Hero: Q:diamond: K:club:

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Calls 1BBs, HERO Raises To 5BBs, BB Folds, BTN Calls 4BBs

Hero SPR on Flop: [8,96 effective]
Flop (11BBs): 5:diamond: K:spade: Q:club:
HERO Bets 13,5BBs (Rem. Stack: 85,1BBs), BTN Calls 13,5BBs (Rem. Stack: 135,4BBs)

Turn (38BBs): 5:diamond: K:spade: Q:club: T:diamond:
HERO - ?
I have a few questions. What should my bet size have been on the flop? Also, do we want to bet the turn, and if yes, how much?

Click to expand...

@fundiver199 gave good advice

This is a spot where you want to use your hud stats- your V has a 75% turn agg score. We want to consider all exploit options on turn.
If they have the straight our sizing does not matter it will be an all-in on turn. What if they made 2 pair? All-in!
What do they do if they have the draw Ax Jx ? How frequently will they bluff vs 30bb's? They have a high turn agg does that mean bluffing turn is more frequent but vs what sizing?
Our options based on HUD include checking to induce bluffs or blocker betting to induce bluffs. At 30bb's we may just get called and then a river fold on a missed runout. If we can check jam turn, we play for stacks early.

If it is check -check on turn we can always bet pot- 1.25 pot- 1.5 pot or even Jam River to make up for missed EV.

Just another way to attack V based on possible turn actions indicated by HUD.

eetenor said:

@fundiver199 gave good advice

This is a spot where you want to use your hud stats- your V has a 75% turn agg score. We want to consider all exploit options on turn.
If they have the straight our sizing does not matter it will be an all-in on turn. What if they made 2 pair? All-in!
What do they do if they have the draw Ax Jx ? How frequently will they bluff vs 30bb's? They have a high turn agg does that mean bluffing turn is more frequent but vs what sizing?
Our options based on HUD include checking to induce bluffs or blocker betting to induce bluffs. At 30bb's we may just get called and then a river fold on a missed runout. If we can check jam turn, we play for stacks early.

If it is check -check on turn we can always bet pot- 1.25 pot- 1.5 pot or even Jam River to make up for missed EV.

Just another way to attack V based on possible turn actions indicated by HUD.

Click to expand...

With 33 hands i think we can diregard turn stats, i think i would just bet turn and then river unless it brings a 4 liner

How do you guys know the fish will call the overbet on the flop? I see he has a high VPIP but how do you tell if they are sticky enough to come along on the flop?

My thoughts would have been to go with 2/3 pot on the flop and probably check call the turn to give them room to bluff.

fundiver199 said:

Preflop
You found a very good 25NL table here with two huge fish on your direct right. One of them limps his BTN, and yes for sure I am raising KQo here, since you are way ahead of a 50% VPIP limping range. You are out of position, but you likely also have a big skill edge, which can counter at least some of that handicap.

Flop
I think, we can throw solver analysis out the window here, since you are playing against such a huge fish, and for that reason I love the overbet. You flopped top two, so why not try to play for stacks? And since he is so passive preflop, starting out with a overbet is a better way to do this than trying to go for a check-raise.

Turn
AJ and J9 got there, but honestly if he is calling an overbet on the flop with just a gutshot and then nails it on the turn, he need to get paid, so good for him. And there are plenty of other hands, you still beat, which will call another bet like KJ, KT, QJ, JT etc. So for me the plan here is still to stack off, which mean, sizing here is largely a question of pot geometry. If you go to 25-30BB, then pot will be 88-98BB, and you will have 55-60BB left, which sets it up for an easy river jam.

Click to expand...

I guess once we start executing this plan on the turn, we're fully committed, right? Even against a re-raise?

eetenor said:

@fundiver199 gave good advice

This is a spot where you want to use your hud stats- your V has a 75% turn agg score. We want to consider all exploit options on turn.
If they have the straight our sizing does not matter it will be an all-in on turn. What if they made 2 pair? All-in!
What do they do if they have the draw Ax Jx ? How frequently will they bluff vs 30bb's? They have a high turn agg does that mean bluffing turn is more frequent but vs what sizing?
Our options based on HUD include checking to induce bluffs or blocker betting to induce bluffs. At 30bb's we may just get called and then a river fold on a missed runout. If we can check jam turn, we play for stacks early.

If it is check -check on turn we can always bet pot- 1.25 pot- 1.5 pot or even Jam River to make up for missed EV.

Just another way to attack V based on possible turn actions indicated by HUD.

Click to expand...

Yeah, the sample size is pretty small, and at the time of the hand, it was even smaller. My main concern was how to dodge straights without giving him a free card out of position—the seat beneath me was definitely feeling a bit shaky.

puzzlefish said:

How do you guys know the fish will call the overbet on the flop? I see he has a high VPIP but how do you tell if they are sticky enough to come along on the flop?

My thoughts would have been to go with 2/3 pot on the flop and probably check call the turn to give them room to bluff.

Click to expand...

I wasn't 100% sure, but I had a strong hand and no position.

puzzlefish said:

How do you guys know the fish will call the overbet on the flop? I see he has a high VPIP but how do you tell if they are sticky enough to come along on the flop?

Click to expand...

Of course we dont know this for sure, but when someone are playing a VPIP of 50+% and hardly ever raising preflop, then they are clearly not a good player, and they clearly like to see some flops. So based on the collective experience of winning poker players over decades we can assume, that this player is likely also pretty inelastic on the flop, because he wants to see the turn, and the absolute bet size in $ or BB is still fairly small.

If he has nothing like 98 offsuit, then he is going to fold to any bet size, and he is not going to bluff very often, if we check to him. So this part of his range does not matter at all. Maybe a hand like A5 or 66 will call 2/3 pot but fold to an overbet, but he could still convince himself, that we are bullying him, and make the call. And even if these hands fold, its not the end of the world, because they likely only put in money on the later streets, if they improve to something, that beat us.

So there is more value in building up the pot against the stronger parts of his range, that are not folding to any reasonable size. Like top pair, second pair, draws. Its not a mistake to bet like 2/3 pot in this situation, but this is the basic rationale for choosing an overbet against someone with these kind of stats, who limped into the pot and then called our raise preflop.

AntsRock said:

I guess once we start executing this plan on the turn, we're fully committed, right? Even against a re-raise?

Click to expand...

Yes we are not folding to a turn raise. As I said already, if he called an overbet with just a gutshot and then nailed it, then good for him. Or if he flopped bottom set against our top two pair. He can be raising a worse two pair also, thinking its for value. However if the river rolls out with a 1-liner to a straight, pair the T or complete the flushdraw, then we can check and evaluate. So when I say "jam the river", I mean on a brick or of course a card, that gives us a full house.

25-28 on the turn and shove the river (baring no 4 straight cards).