$5 NLHE 6-max: Facing turn raise with aces in a multiway pot

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Papier24

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 25/21/3


No Limit Hold'em $0,02/$0,05
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6 players
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Stacks:
UTG - UTG ($5,91)
MP - MP ($5,23)
CO - Hero ($5,00)
BTN - BTN ($4,14)
SB - SB ($8,47)
BB - BB ($5,00)

Preflop: ($0,07, 6 players) Hero is CO with A♥A♠
2 folds, Hero raises to $0,15, BTN calls $0,15, SB calls $0,13, BB calls $0,10

Flop: 7♣K♣J♠ ($0,60, 4 players - BB: $4,85, Hero: $4,85, BTN: $3,99, SB: $8,32)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0,40, 2 folds, BB calls $0,40

Turn: 8♥ ($1,40, 2 players - BB: $4,45, Hero: $4,45)
BB checks, Hero bets $0,95, BB raises to $3,00

HERO ???

Villain stats :
25 PFR 21 VPIP AF 3,75 3bet 17 %
Hands played : 77

Villain is a fairly aggressive player but not super aggro. I think he would raise KJ and a set of 77 quite often in multiway pot on a wet board. I don't have the Ace of Clubs what might help. I guess he has T9s here pretty often.

I think I have to shove or fold. Which option should I choose ?


 
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Like you said this is a tricky spot. I'm leaning more towards folding, but calling off the rest of your stack can be a option too. It's more likely villain has KJ, T9 clubs, 77 etc. but they could also be doing that with a flush draw.

You are blocking two of the Aces so it's less likely (but not guaranteed) that they would have the Ace of clubs.

For me, whenever I'm playing cash games I usually know who are the nit rakeback grinders. They are playing so many tables that they do not have time to waste spending on fancy bluffs so I know that they have a huge amount of equity when they raise and I can make an easy fold. However you did say villain is aggressive and can be trying to pull a move on you. It is just less likely that they are bluffing here in this spot. You gotta remember AA is like 64% favorite against three other hands preflop.

So you gotta think about the 1/3 of the time when you are behind on the turn.

Cliff Notes: I wouldn't mind a fold or a jam to get it all on the turn here. I like preflop, and flop/turn bet sizings. Could even possibly bet bigger on the turn\.
 
I can't see any hand that you beat here in this spot.
Flush draws will probably call again.
Straight draws also gonna call again.
Combo draws will probably 3bet you on the flop.
KK/JJ will probably 3bet pre.
77 makes sense calling pre but 3bet you on the flop because of the board texture.
So the 8 on the turn some hands get there.
89/K8/J8(propably of clubs)/and 78.
So you are beating 9c6c and 6c5c.Not much.
And as I have mentioned in another hand analysis, people at this limits don't bluff too much in situations like that without the goods.
 
I would definately fold here against tight aggressive. 77, JJ or KJ seem likely. Flush draw and AK are much less likely to raise following a multiway flop.
 
Sil3ntness said:
Like you said this is a tricky spot. I'm leaning more towards folding, but calling off the rest of your stack can be a option too. It's more likely villain has KJ, T9 clubs, 77 etc. but they could also be doing that with a flush draw.

You are blocking two of the Aces so it's less likely (but not guaranteed) that they would have the Ace of clubs.

For me, whenever I'm playing cash games I usually know who are the nit rakeback grinders. They are playing so many tables that they do not have time to waste spending on fancy bluffs so I know that they have a huge amount of equity when they raise and I can make an easy fold. However you did say villain is aggressive and can be trying to pull a move on you. It is just less likely that they are bluffing here in this spot. You gotta remember AA is like 64% favorite against three other hands preflop.

So you gotta think about the 1/3 of the time when you are behind on the turn.

Cliff Notes: I wouldn't mind a fold or a jam to get it all on the turn here. I like preflop, and flop/turn bet sizings. Could even possibly bet bigger on the turn\.
Click to expand...
can you tell me how you know who the nit rakeback grinders are?on topic: he does not have a flush draw; he either has kj or 77 and wants to be tricky but more probably he has k8,j8 or pocket 88.
 
Sorin Iliescu said:
can you tell me how you know who the nit rakeback grinders are?on topic: he does not have a flush draw; he either has kj or 77 and wants to be tricky but more probably he has k8,j8 or pocket 88.
Click to expand...

Hand history and a quick scan of other tables to see the same people playing 10+ tables every day.

Also I've seen some really good players make raises on the turn with combo draws (including flush draws)
 
No value in checking the turn? Surely we can't get 3 streets from a reggy guy?

Might be results oriented though. As played, fold. Flop and turn aren't good for our hand, and we just got Baluga'd. He might be good enough to take this line with a draw, but let him have this one.
 
He overcalled from the BB after 3 other callers. His range should be very wide. That 8 helps a few hands K8(9),109(16)or(4), Jc8c(1),8cxc(?). And I think he would've raised you otf with two pair or 77. Although BU and SB both folded so the possibility of him slow playing is still out there. As for combo draws if he didn't raise his pair+fd's otf don't think he would ott. But you don't know his tendencies. He probably raises his double gut shot and open ended straight flush draws Qc10c,9c10c but he may also include them in his calling range from time to time (or always) to help balance his x/r ott.

Vs an unknown I fold because If he's raising turn due the fact he improved you could be drawing dead.Your not in great shape vs sets,two pairs even his semi bluffs like 8c9c,10c8c have a good %40 equity vs you. So I either your opponent has you crushed or has a lot of equity vs you. I don't see many situations where you have him crushed. If you compare how your AA stacks up against his staight,sets,two pairs and semi bluffs on this board I don't think your doing so well.
 
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