$5 NLHE Full Ring: Should you call or fold on the river with set?

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 27/10/1

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players

CO: 105.4 BB
Hero (BTN): 248.6 BB
SB: 119.2 BB
BB: 107.4 BB
UTG: 54 BB
UTG+1: 108.6 BB
MP: 52.4 BB
MP+1: 112.6 BB
MP+2: 73 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 6♦ 6♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 6 BB

Flop: (19.4 BB, 2 players) T♣ 9♥ 2♠
MP+2 checks, Hero bets 9.4 BB, MP+2 calls 9.4 BB

Turn: (38.2 BB, 2 players) 8♦
MP+2 checks, Hero checks

River: (38.2 BB, 2 players) 6♣
MP+2 bets 54.6 BB and is all-in,


Hello guys, I have question about this hand, How correctly play set in that situation? I raised as the light-3bet and then decided to do c-bet. His F3B:100 (83 hands) and FFCB. And then I got set on the river, what I need to do versus oll-in? Thanks very much for advices
 
He folded to a 3 bet 83 times? Or the total hand sample is 83 and he folded 100% of a much smaller amount of times? If he folded 100% of 83 times then I think this is an easy call as he never has a straight here and we are only worried about TT. If he's only folded to a 3 bet twice in 83 hands total it may be closer. I still don't expect him to have much 7x that can call a 3 bet and float flop other than 77. QJo should be folding too given his stats so we have to worry about TT, 99, QJs, and 77. I don't think calling or folding is too big of a mistake in this spot. With an aggression factor of 1 this guy could show up with JJ+ here often. He shouldn't have many airball bluffs but could also overplay ATs.
 
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I'm not sure I particularly dig your 3 bet with 66 preflop.

But...as played, your flop cbet gets you to the river where you spike a set. I would call there.
 
c0rnBr34d said:
He folded to a 3 bet 83 times? Or the total hand sample is 83 and he folded 100% of a much smaller amount of times? If he folded 100% of 83 times then I think this is an easy call as he never has a straight here and we are only worried about TT. If he's only folded to a 3 bet twice in 83 hands total it may be closer. I still don't expect him to have much 7x that can call a 3 bet and float flop other than 77. QJo should be folding too given his stats so we have to worry about TT, 99, QJs, and 77. I don't think calling or folding is too big of a mistake in this spot. With an aggression factor of 1 this guy could show up with JJ+ here often. He shouldn't have many airball bluffs but could also overplay ATs.
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This is total, I played with this player 83 hands and he fold to 3-bet 100%. Later I will show you , his hand , you will be awesome. And thanks for advice, it helped me)
 
Not a fan of 3-betting a short stack player with a small pair. Other than that, the hand is fine assuming you folded on the river. It sounds like you have enough info on this guy to assume he's a fish that isn't turning his one pair hands into a bluff.
 
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Tbh, i would fold to this passive player who is only raising 10% of the deck and calling alot, AF of 1 is really really low, I can't see villain over shoving the river with a weak hand, it really looks like your beat more often than not.
Fold to 3bet of 100% over 83 hands is too small a sample size to take much notice of.
 
Mcclares said:
This is total, I played with this player 83 hands and he fold to 3-bet 100%. Later I will show you , his hand , you will be awesome. And thanks for advice, it helped me)
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Thanks, glad to help. This is a tiny sample then. That means he only PFR 8 times so he only had 8 times total to face a 3 bet. 100% fold may mean he only got 3 bet once and folded. This is not a significant enough factor to three bet 66 as others have said (unless he got 3 bet 8 out 8 times and folded them all or something). Will be interesting to see results.

John A said:
Not a fan of 3-betting a short stack player with a small pair. Other than that, the hand is fine assuming you folded on the river. It sounds like you have enough info on this guy to assume he's a fish that isn't turning his one pair hands into a bluff.
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Agree about the 3 bet but with only 83 hands how can we be sure he doesn't play an over pair like this or have some random spaz (T9s, 98s)? That's a fairly small sample no?
 
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c0rnBr34d said:
Thanks, glad to help. This is a tiny sample then. That means he only PFR 8 times so he only had 8 times total to face a 3 bet. 100% fold may mean he only got 3 bet once and folded. This is not a significant enough factor to three bet 66 as others have said (unless he got 3 bet 8 out 8 times and folded them all or something). Will be interesting to see results.


Agree about the 3 bet but with only 83 hands how can we be sure he doesn't play an over pair like this or have some random spaz (T9s, 98s)? That's a fairly small sample no?
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Yes, I agreed with you, 83 is too small, I need 100+, but it was what I had in this situation, You will be awesome that he had OJo, Thanks for help
 
I think the river decision is rather irrelevant here.

The main points you should focus on are these imo:
* Don't 3bet 66 pre BU vs HJ (especially against a 70bb stack)
* IF we want to adjust to HUD stats, a sample size matters. 83 is waaaay to low to start making adjustments. Especially when it comes to F3B stats. Around 300 we can start making some careful assumptions on the more basic stats, but even then beware of variance.
 
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Preflop
As the majority I also prefer to just flat here and try to either flop a set or outplay him in position. And about the HUD-stats, when his PFR is 10%, he has only opened 8 hands over this sample, so fold to 3-bet is likely 1 out of 1 or 2 out of 2, which say absolutely nothing. Until something has happened at the bare minimum 10 times, you dont even begin to look at a stat. Its more relevant, that this guy only has a PRF of 10%, which mean, he should be strong, when he open.

Flop + turn
Think this was perfect.

River
Passive players rarely overbet jam as a bluff, and two different straights are possible as well as higher sets. So even though it suck to fold after improving, I would find a bucket here and then let it go.
 
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Nr98 said:
I think the river decision is rather irrelevant here.

The main points you should focus on are these imo:
* Don't 3bet 66 pre BU vs HJ (especially against a 70bb stack)
* IF we want to adjust to HUD stats, a sample size matters. 83 is waaaay to low to start making adjustments. Especially when it comes to F3B stats. Around 300 we can start making some careful assumptions on the more basic stats, but even then beware of variance.
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Next time I will do so, Thank you very much for advice.
 
Mcclares said:
Next time I will do so, Thank you very much for advice.
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No worries, if anythings unclear or need some extra advice feel free to reach out mate. Gl 😀
 
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Mcclares said:
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 27/10/1

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players

CO: 105.4 BB
Hero (BTN): 248.6 BB
SB: 119.2 BB
BB: 107.4 BB
UTG: 54 BB
UTG+1: 108.6 BB
MP: 52.4 BB
MP+1: 112.6 BB
MP+2: 73 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 6♦ 6♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 6 BB

Flop: (19.4 BB, 2 players) T♣ 9♥ 2♠
MP+2 checks, Hero bets 9.4 BB, MP+2 calls 9.4 BB

Turn: (38.2 BB, 2 players) 8♦
MP+2 checks, Hero checks

River: (38.2 BB, 2 players) 6♣
MP+2 bets 54.6 BB and is all-in,


Hello guys, I have question about this hand, How correctly play set in that situation? I raised as the light-3bet and then decided to do c-bet. His F3B:100 (83 hands) and FFCB. And then I got set on the river, what I need to do versus oll-in? Thanks very much for advices
Click to expand...

Against someone with such a low aggression factor they tend to have it more often than not. Whether it's QJ or a 87 I think you're likely beat on the river.

I think you played the hand fine. There is merit to both flatting and to 3-betting preflop. (whether you have weak or aggressive players in the blinds is a big consideration 🙂):rock:
 
Evan Jarvis said:
Against someone with such a low aggression factor they tend to have it more often than not. Whether it's QJ or a 87 I think you're likely beat on the river.

I think you played the hand fine. There is merit to both flatting and to 3-betting preflop. (whether you have weak or aggressive players in the blinds is a big consideration 🙂):rock:
Click to expand...

Thank you!
 
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