OK... Lost but did I really win in the long run?

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xdmanx007

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Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx
SB ($31.50)
BB ($89.75)
UTG ($49.25)
UTG+1 ($32.00)
UTG+2 ($14.25)
MP1 ($47.00)
MP2 ($49.25)
xdmanx007 ($58.50)
CO ($21.50)
Button ($21.00)
Preflop: xdmanx007 is MP3 with 3:heart:, 3:spade:. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, xdmanx007 calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.
Flop: ($3) A:spade:, 3:club:, J:club: (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 bets $2, MP1 folds, xdmanx007 raises to $5, CO folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+2 calls $3.
Turn: ($13) 2:heart: (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, xdmanx007 bets $9, UTG+2 calls $8.75.
River: ($30.75) 9:club: (2 players)
Final Pot: $30.75
Results in white below:
UTG+2 has Qc 2c (flush, queen high).
xdmanx007 has 3h 3s (three of a kind, threes).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins $30.75.
 
Ouch, that sucks, but what do you mean 'did I really win in the long run?'

If you're asking whether or not you made the right moves, I think you did.
 
Disregarding the white text:

On the flop: That flop is ideal for you. There were no preflop raises, so unless your opponents are slowplaying AA and JJ, you're a huge favorite. As your UTG+2 does not reraise you, I think we can be pretty sure that's not what he's holding (unless he's stupid - slowplaying a set when there are both straight and flush draws possible on the table is not too clever). A more likely hand is something like Ax, maybe even AJ. If he's on a flush draw, he's not getting the odds for it (neither pot nor implied). However, if he holds KcQc, he has 12 outs. Your raise was large enough to make even that call -EV, though.

On the turn: Good raise. If he does have high pair or two pairs, he'll call or even raise you here. If he's on a draw, he's getting bad odds to continue.

Knowing his hand, calculating the EV isn't hard. I'm not sure what you're asking really. Theory of Poker: Surely you wouldn't have played the hand any differently had you seen his cards?
 
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F Paulsson said:
On the turn: Good raise. If he does have high pair or two pairs, he'll call or even raise you here. If he's on a draw, he's getting bad odds to continue.
Click to expand...

Yep, he didn't have right odds to call bearing in mind he needed one of the remaining clubs to win (even then he only had Q flush). Looking at his low stack, and the fact your bet put him all-in, i imagine he just thought "sod it, i'm calling - if I lose i'm out" and he just got lucky.
 
F Paulsson said:
On the turn: Good raise. If he does have high pair or two pairs, he'll call or even raise you here. If he's on a draw, he's getting bad odds to continue.
Click to expand...
Oh yeah, sorry. Forgot that you put him all-in, so he couldn't reraise. Well, point still stands (mostly).
 
I think you played it right. The player simply was chasing the flush and invested a lot into it. He's lucky he got the last club. Flushes burn me all the time.
 
Yeah throwing the idea out there that you won't win every hand but as long as you take the odds in the long run you will win!
 
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