BB vs BU reg strategy

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hitmyaa

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  • #1
Hey guys, first time posting hope it's okay ^^

Villain is a reg over 200 hands, 27/24, fold to 3bet 72% but it hasn't converged yet so take it with a grain of salt.

QJo in the BB, reg opens BTN, I decide to 3bet. Thinking about it now I feel like calling is actually better here, by 3betting we get called by a range that dominates us, and we fold out hands that we beat. How do you guys play this spot preflop?

On the flop I had two lines in mind, either small flop / big turn to get some hands to call/fold, or bluff in one street with a big sizing. Except I clearly didn't have enough fold equity to justify it according to my analysis.

So what's your approach when you're in that kind of spot with not enough FE but still decent equity?

Curious to hear your thoughts!
 
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Station_Master

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  • #2
I prefer call, but its an Ok hand to 3bet in theory. Post flop it depends on the board
 
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fundiver199

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  • #3
Yeah we are missing the board. Without that we cant analyse postflop. Its also important to know the pot size and effective stack size. So please provide a complete hand history.
 
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pokfer

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  • #4
Hey! I actually just ran this through a solver to check, and QJo is a pure call preflop in this spot.
1777035894707
I’ve attached the range chart below so you can see the exact percentages. As you suspected, 3-betting QJo mostly just isolates you against hands that have you dominated. Since he’s over-folding (72%), you definitely want to 3-bet a wide range, but QJo is too strong to "waste" as a bluff—it plays much better as a call to keep his wider range in.

Stick to hands with better blockers or lower equity for the 3-bets
 
monkeytilter

monkeytilter

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  • #5
I'd be more interested in villain's PFR stat and Steal% (if you have it), @200 hands his fold to 3 bet is pretty useless - but let's assume they aren't ridiculous as you haven't mentioned them.

Technically speaking you are indifferent between calling and 3 betting here (assuming ~100B eff.)

Probably controversial opinion:
You haven't said what stakes this is, but if this is the micros (less than 25NL) just FOLD.

Calling/3 betting is marginally +EV so I wouldn't bother:
1. the game will be so soft you don't need to be fighting tooth and nail for tiny bits of EV
2. you are most likely not playing this well enough post flop to achieve the theoretical EV
3. simplify your game and cull the marginal spots, this will let you multi-table and farm the major +EV spots
 
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