Polished Poker Vol. I Study Group

I just realized how hard it is to asses winning and losing from BB because of blind cost.

If we assume everything that falls under 100bb/100 lost is winning, hands not defendable from big blind for me are A2s, KJs, KTs, K5s, Q9s, KJo, T9s, J8s, J7s, 97s, 87s, 44

Hands like Q3o and T4s are doing just fine =)
Ok so folding KJ on blinds after this

The point is pretty clear, most of these hands should just be folded pre flop with maybe some of the higher suited combos 3bet rather than cold called. It's also interesting that off suit hands don't do as badly as you might think in comparison in two of the samples. I do find this odd as playing suited cards should bring extra flush draws which can be semi bluffed and get there so they should lose less if you're playing your draws even half decently.
I recently got slapped down by Lex Veldhuis in his twitch stream when I criticised him for defending T6os in the blinds against a min raise from MP . He hit top pair, ran into AT and busted. His argument was with more people opening lighter he had to defend wider and reverse float because the weaker opening ranges can't barrel as much. I get this but if they are opening lighter you are probably better 3betting more than calling these sort of hands.
Yesterday he got through to day 2 of a Scoop and was bullish about his chances. First hand of the day he defended the bb with K8os to a CO raise hit top pair and busted first hand to AK. I know this was top of the guys range but there are still plenty of other dominating king combos as well of course. I don't know it just seems silly to play T6os and defend too wide no matter how fking good you are.
One thing I'd like John to clarify is what he thinks is an acceptable BB/100 hand rate is for these sort of hands and when they should be played if at all.

Figaroo2 said:

The point is pretty clear, most of these hands should just be folded pre flop with maybe some of the higher suited combos 3bet rather than cold called. It's also interesting that off suit hands don't do as badly as you might think in comparison in two of the samples. I do find this odd as playing suited cards should bring extra flush draws which can be semi bluffed and get there so they should lose less if you're playing your draws even half decently.
I recently got slapped down by Lex Veldhuis in his twitch stream when I criticised him for defending T6os in the blinds against a min raise from MP . He hit top pair, ran into AT and busted. His argument was with more people opening lighter he had to defend wider and reverse float because the weaker opening ranges can't barrel as much. I get this but if they are opening lighter you are probably better 3betting more than calling these sort of hands.
Yesterday he got through to day 2 of a Scoop and was bullish about his chances. First hand of the day he defended the bb with K8os to a CO raise hit top pair and busted first hand to AK. I know this was top of the guys range but there are still plenty of other dominating king combos as well of course. I don't know it just seems silly to play T6os and defend too wide no matter how fking good you are.
One thing I'd like John to clarify is what he thinks is an acceptable BB/100 hand rate is for these sort of hands and when they should be played if at all.

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+1 plus the rake is gonna fk&^*g kill ya
Note to one self if bored I need to get myself one of those fidget cubes or spinners the adhd kids are getting

Figaroo2 said:

The point is pretty clear, most of these hands should just be folded pre flop

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Remember only more than 100bb/100 are losing ones from big blind. You can see from my previous post how few hands you can't play profitable (those where all including call and 3bet). Semi good hands I obviously overplay prime example KJ. I would think his point is different if we include he asked you to provide hands losing more than 100bb/100

In case you missed the losing ones, so more than 100bb/100 rake included from big blind for me are A2s, KJs, KTs, K5s, Q9s, KJo, T9s, J8s, J7s, 97s, 87s, 44 this includes every hand I have ever played from BB.

Obviously if I have understood this wrong I feel like total moron =) Too bad this 30min edit time. I hope you answer in time for me to change this.

braveslice said:

Remember only more than 100bb/100 are losing ones from big blind. You can see from my previous post how few hands you can't play profitable (those where all including call and 3bet). Semi good hands I obviously overplay prime example KJ. I would think his point is different if we include he asked you to provide hands losing more than 100bb/100

In case you missed the losing ones, so more than 100bb/100 rake included from big blind for me are A2s, KJs, KTs, K5s, Q9s, KJo, T9s, J8s, J7s, 97s, 87s, 44 this includes every hand I have ever played from BB.

Obviously if I have understood this wrong I feel like total moron =) Too bad this 30min edit time. I hope you answer in time for me to change this.

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you shouldn't have added the last sentence. They obviously gonna wait 30 mins now lol

rhombus said:

you shouldn't have added the last sentence. They obviously gonna wait 30 mins now lol

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:icon_scra Oh why would they do that :angel:

cold calling in the BB

These were my results for individually cold call hands in the BB in the range John asked for, I tried to cut and paste them in b4 but couldn't hold a format so I sent them direct to John and didn't put them here, but will now as an image

I was surprised my suited aces were performingly so badly, you really need a very large sample for it to be meaningful. The rates vary pretty widely and if you do actually manage to spike a hand and win a stack it changes the profile for the hand a lot. The same with a big loss; with A3s I lost a 100bb hand after a K33 flop when the villain had KK
When I ran a filter for A2-A5s when I 3bet from the BB I was winning at +54bb/100.

I suspected this and also suspected that I would be performing better 3betting all of the hands with the biggest losing rates and I was correct about half the time actually posting a winning rate and those that were still losing were still better than the cold call rate.
QTos for example was only losing at -33 when 3bet rather than -222. (only a sample of 20 in 700k though...not a hand i usually 3bet)
This is partly my point, at the micros those hands that could be 3bet from the BB probably should be as opposed to flat called.
John has alwyas told me -30bb/100 is an acceptable losing rate for the BB. Historically I'm about -45bb/100 and cold calling around 18% (5-6% too high) so I could probably get to -30 by dumping all the os gappers and some of the suited gappers and 3betting a bit more.

Cool, thanks Fig...

Do you have data for A2-A5o also?

offsuit small aces cold called in BB

A2os 52 hands -152bb/100
A3os 84 hands -95bb/100
A4os 80 hands +34bb/100
A5os 93 hands -25bb/100

John I sent you the data in the images above in an excel spread via skype on 4th May

Hello everyone,
I'm not knew to this forum but lately I have not been active. Reasons being, online poker was banned in Portugal, but since we went back online I've been playing on PS.pt.
I also don't have much time to dedicate to poker forums but here I sometimes come and always find helpful insight, so keep it up guys!
I'd also like to know what you think about this hand. Did I lose value ou pot control it ok? Do you agree with the flop check?
The MP guy is a good reg who I know likes to bet his hands.
Thanks


Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 3070562
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $14.42
SB: $8.43
BB: $10.30
UTG: $14.80
MP: $17.81
Hero (CO): $12.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with K <font color='red'>♥</font> K <font color='black'>♣</font>
1 fold, MP raises to $0.25, Hero raises to $0.80, 2 folds, BB calls $0.70, MP calls $0.55

Flop: ($2.45) 7 <font color='black'>♣</font> 8 <font color='red'>♦</font> T <font color='black'>♠</font> (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($2.45) 2 <font color='black'>♣</font> (3 players)
BB checks, MP bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, BB folds

River: ($5.95) 8 <font color='red'>♥</font> (2 players)
MP bets $2.83, Hero calls $2.83

Final Pot: $11.61
MP shows J <font color='red'>♥</font> J <font color='red'>♦</font> (two pair, Jacks and Eights)
Hero shows K <font color='red'>♥</font> K <font color='black'>♣</font> (two pair, Kings and Eights)
Hero wins $11.03
(Rake: $0.58)

Figaroo2 said:

A2os 52 hands -152bb/100
A3os 84 hands -95bb/100
A4os 80 hands +34bb/100
A5os 93 hands -25bb/100

John I sent you the data in the images above in an excel spread via skype on 4th May

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Ok... wasn't sure this was in there. I will double check it. Thanks!

warturtle7 said:

Hello everyone,
I'm not knew to this forum but lately I have not been active. Reasons being, online poker was banned in Portugal, but since we went back online I've been playing on PS.pt.
I also don't have much time to dedicate to poker forums but here I sometimes come and always find helpful insight, so keep it up guys!
I'd also like to know what you think about this hand. Did I lose value ou pot control it ok? Do you agree with the flop check?
The MP guy is a good reg who I know likes to bet his hands.
Thanks


Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 3070562
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $14.42
SB: $8.43
BB: $10.30
UTG: $14.80
MP: $17.81
Hero (CO): $12.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with K <font color='red'>♥</font> K <font color='black'>♣</font>
1 fold, MP raises to $0.25, Hero raises to $0.80, 2 folds, BB calls $0.70, MP calls $0.55

Flop: ($2.45) 7 <font color='black'>♣</font> 8 <font color='red'>♦</font> T <font color='black'>♠</font> (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($2.45) 2 <font color='black'>♣</font> (3 players)
BB checks, MP bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, BB folds

River: ($5.95) 8 <font color='red'>♥</font> (2 players)
MP bets $2.83, Hero calls $2.83

Final Pot: $11.61
MP shows J <font color='red'>♥</font> J <font color='red'>♦</font> (two pair, Jacks and Eights)
Hero shows K <font color='red'>♥</font> K <font color='black'>♣</font> (two pair, Kings and Eights)
Hero wins $11.03
(Rake: $0.58)

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Welcome back.

As far as the flop check.. no, bet 100% of the time there at these stakes. As played, I even like a turn raise. And as played, shove river. With how you played it, looks like you picked up a turn draw and then missed. You're getting calls from Tx enough, JJ/QQ and maybe even 99 sometimes.

Calling a 30bb shove by a loose player close to the bubble

History, villian is opening frequently (55% ffom MP) and cbetting 80% of flops. I’ve 3bet him twice in position in the last two rotations and he folded both times, so now first in he just shoves 30ish bb pre. He has us just covered.
We are sitting in 30th position of 82, 72 people cash.
Call or fold.?
Clearly call for 20bb so I’m thinking it’s still probably a call for 30, but bubble is approaching which made me think do I want to risk 3 hours work on this possible flip.

Figaroo2 said:

History, villian is opening frequently (55% ffom MP) and cbetting 80% of flops. I’ve 3bet him twice in position in the last two rotations and he folded both times, so now first in he just shoves 30ish bb pre. He has us just covered.
We are sitting in 30th position of 82, 72 people cash.
Call or fold.?
Clearly call for 20bb so I’m thinking it’s still probably a call for 30, but bubble is approaching which made me think do I want to risk 3 hours work on this possible flip.

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My thought here is that he is probably not too strong when shoving here, hands like QQ+, AK he will probably just raise to get some action. In my opinion his range exists of 22+, Axs type of hand, and maybe KQs. I think you're dominating him most of the times with this range and therefore I would probably call. You might get unlucky or run in to the top of this range but if you want to win a tournament you have to take some risks in my opinion.But maybe i'm wrong, looking forward to other opinions!

Figaroo2 said:

History, villian is opening frequently (55% ffom MP) and cbetting 80% of flops. I’ve 3bet him twice in position in the last two rotations and he folded both times, so now first in he just shoves 30ish bb pre. He has us just covered.
We are sitting in 30th position of 82, 72 people cash.
Call or fold.?
Clearly call for 20bb so I’m thinking it’s still probably a call for 30, but bubble is approaching which made me think do I want to risk 3 hours work on this possible flip.

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It's a fist pump call... your potential cash position is still too far away to really be able to quantify it's equity value into any equation here. A chance to double up and be top 10 likely in chips here is a hell yeah call.

John A said:

It's a fist pump call... your potential cash position is still too far away to really be able to quantify it's equity value into any equation here. A chance to double up and be top 10 likely in chips here is a hell yeah call.

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yeah I called. Vil had QTs

River sizing? Flop action?

A couple of 50nl hands where I wasn't sure of the best sizings, first hand I had already 3bet this loose aggro opener twice so this time I decided to flat. He was stealing 55% and is opening 25% from the CO
2nd hand he's a bit fishy and raising but there are a lot of bad cards for us here so best flop action?

Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players

SB: $58.53 (117.1 bb)
BB: $54.10 (108.2 bb)
MP1: $19.17 (38.3 bb)
MP2: $56.65 (113.3 bb)
MP3: $43.70 (87.4 bb)
CO: $57.23 (114.5 bb)VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 7, AF: 6.5, Hands: 108
Hero (BTN): $64.33 (128.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K J
3 folds, CO raises to $1.25, Hero calls $1.25, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.25) 5 8 A (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($3.25) T (2 players)
CO bets $2, Hero raises to $5.62, CO calls $3.62

River: ($14.49) J (2 players)
CO checks,
Hero bets ?

Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players

SB: $51.20 (102.4 bb)VPIP: 28, PFR: 12, 3B: 7, AF: 3.0, Hands: 85
BB: $55.90 (111.8 bb)
Hero (MP1): $59.20 (118.4 bb)
MP2: $57.84 (115.7 bb)
MP3: $54.10 (108.2 bb)
CO: $19.67 (39.3 bb)
BTN: $56.65 (113.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6

6

Hero raises to $1.50, 4 folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds

Flop: ($3.50) Q

6

T

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.25, SB raises to $4.50,
Hero?

Spoiler

raises to $12.25 I figured there was a lot of bad cards for me here so I just hoped he was willing to go with a good draw

Figaroo2 said:

A couple of 50nl hands where I wasn't sure of the best sizings, first hand I had already 3bet this loose aggro opener twice so this time I decided to flat. He was stealing 55% and is opening 25% from the CO
2nd hand he's a bit fishy and raising but there are a lot of bad cards for us here so best flop action?

Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players

SB: $58.53 (117.1 bb)
BB: $54.10 (108.2 bb)
MP1: $19.17 (38.3 bb)
MP2: $56.65 (113.3 bb)
MP3: $43.70 (87.4 bb)
CO: $57.23 (114.5 bb)VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 7, AF: 6.5, Hands: 108
Hero (BTN): $64.33 (128.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K

J

3 folds, CO raises to $1.25, Hero calls $1.25, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.25) 5

8

A

(2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($3.25) T

(2 players)
CO bets $2, Hero raises to $5.62, CO calls $3.62

River: ($14.49) J

(2 players)
CO checks,
Hero bets ?

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I'd just bet that flop. As played, raise turn a little larger. If you check that flop, then raising that turn will get a call a large % of the time.

On river, bet ~$11 or slight overbet. Depends on your read and what's been going on w/ your opponent. You know he's aggressive. Your flush is a little disguised, so you can go for a high value bet here.

Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players

SB: $51.20 (102.4 bb)VPIP: 28, PFR: 12, 3B: 7, AF: 3.0, Hands: 85
BB: $55.90 (111.8 bb)
Hero (MP1): $59.20 (118.4 bb)
MP2: $57.84 (115.7 bb)
MP3: $54.10 (108.2 bb)
CO: $19.67 (39.3 bb)
BTN: $56.65 (113.3 bb)

Click to expand...

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6

6

Hero raises to $1.50, 4 folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds

Flop: ($3.50) Q

6

T

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.25, SB raises to $4.50,
Hero?

Spoiler

raises to $12.25 I figured there was a lot of bad cards for me here so I just hoped he was willing to go with a good draw

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Spoiler

, SB folds
Results: $12.50 pot ($0.62 rake)
Final Board: Q

6

T

SB mucked and lost (-$6 net)
Hero mucked 6

6

and won $11.88 ($5.88 net)

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Yeah, looks fine. All day. Nh.

sorry a lot of writing. Answer the question - did it help?))

A little bit of a late start, but yes please.

Did what help?

Fyi, since I'll be in Vegas next week. I'll have updates of my tournament on twitter at - @Poker_Solutions

Should be fun as usual.

Flop raise, should we just fold turn here with overpair?

Awkward spot with QQ, fold turn?
Bad reg who calls 20% in BB and a whopping 40% in SB

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

SB: $3.35 (33.5 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)VPIP: 21, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 2.5, Hands: 273
Hero (UTG+1): $10.43 (104.3 bb)
UTG+2: $9.09 (90.9 bb)
MP1: $28.13 (281.3 bb)
MP2: $10.40 (104 bb)
MP3: $4.20 (42 bb)
CO: $20.67 (206.7 bb)
BTN: $10.96 (109.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q Q
Hero raises to $0.30, 6 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.90) J 5 4 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.57, SB calls $0.57, BB raises to $1.78, Hero calls $1.21, SB folds

Turn: ($5.03) T (2 players)
BB bets $2.26, Hero calls $2.26

River: ($9.55) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $5.66 and is all-in, Hero?
Flush gets there, clear fold for me. AdXd and 6d7d, 44, quads even, sizing looks like he wanted a call on the turn.

Yeah you need to call or fold that turn. I hope you understand why, but maybe it's better if I just ask.

John A said:

Yeah you need to call or fold that turn. I hope you understand why, but maybe it's better if I just ask.

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Call or fold that turn? Did you write that correct?
Well after I looked back at this hand I would have preferred a fold on the turn. Mainly because I'm UTG and have been playing tight and he raises into two players not just one and he isn't that aggressive. It strongly smells like either a set or a monster draw or at worst the nut flush draw.
There really wasn't much point calling the turn bet once he fires half pot.
If he had made it 3/4 or pot I might have leaned towards him drawing and still looking for a fold but the half pot sizing screams he wants a call.