fishinthesea said:
Yeah, I think the turn check is ok considering the flop action. I'd expect him to raise more with a flush draw. And yes, the river sizing needs to be bigger. You called a flop raise and checked the turn and there's a missed flush on a low board. You're going to be hero called by a wide range here so this is a spot you want to take advantage of.
PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.68, PFR: 16.09, 3Bet Preflop: 3.76, Hands: 354)
SB: 105 BB (VPIP: 17.45, PFR: 14.06, 3Bet Preflop: 7.04, Hands: 388)
BB: 99.9 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
UTG: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 13.04, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
UTG+1: 205.3 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 10)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 61)
Hero (MP+1): 100 BB
MP+2: 137.9 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
CO: 115.2 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:diamond: A:club:
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 7:spade: 7:diamond: 2:diamond:
BB checks, Hero bets 4.1 BB, BB calls 4.1 BB
Turn: (14.7 BB, 2 players) J:heart:
BB checks, Hero bets 9 BB, BB calls 9 BB
River: (32.7 BB, 2 players) 5:club:
BB bets 83.8 BB and is all-in, hero ??
villain unknown. like on the river i was prepared to call a pot sized bet but when he just overships it for 2.5x pot i just don't know how often the 10nl population is bluffing in this spot. so even though he doesn't rep much should i fold? also i considered checking back flop with A high. generally with A high on dry paired boards do you check to try and get to showdown or bet to protect your equity and prevent yourself from getting bluffed off the hand?
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.68, PFR: 16.09, 3Bet Preflop: 3.76, Hands: 354)
SB: 105 BB (VPIP: 17.45, PFR: 14.06, 3Bet Preflop: 7.04, Hands: 388)
BB: 99.9 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
UTG: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 13.04, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
UTG+1: 205.3 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 10)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 61)
Hero (MP+1): 100 BB
MP+2: 137.9 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
CO: 115.2 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:diamond: A:club:
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 7:spade: 7:diamond: 2:diamond:
BB checks, Hero bets 4.1 BB, BB calls 4.1 BB
Turn: (14.7 BB, 2 players) J:heart:
BB checks, Hero bets 9 BB, BB calls 9 BB
River: (32.7 BB, 2 players) 5:club:
BB bets 83.8 BB and is all-in, hero ??
villain unknown. like on the river i was prepared to call a pot sized bet but when he just overships it for 2.5x pot i just don't know how often the 10nl population is bluffing in this spot. so even though he doesn't rep much should i fold? also i considered checking back flop with A high. generally with A high on dry paired boards do you check to try and get to showdown or bet to protect your equity and prevent yourself from getting bluffed off the hand?
I think the flop value bet is fine. River is a fold. With no reads and no info, even though he doesn't rep much it's a fold. If he was bluffing, he could get more of your range to fold with a 45 BB river bet. So it's the John A rule (I'm going to start putting my name to common wisdom like some other pros lol) - If an opponent could accomplish the same goal with a smaller bet as a bluff, he's probably not bluffing.
By John's Law a good fold then?
IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
SB: $15.46 (154.6 bb)
BB: $7 (70 bb)
UTG: $5.22 (52.2 bb)
MP: $3.57 (35.7 bb)
CO: $10.78 (107.8 bb) vpip70/pfr33/agg%27 in 178 hands
Hero (BTN): $10 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with K
A
2 folds, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, CO calls $0.30
Flop: ($0.95) Q
A
2
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.76, CO raises to $10.38, Hero folds
Results: $2.47 pot ($0.16 rake)
Final Board: Q
A
2
CO mucked and won $2.31 ($1.15 net)
Hero mucked K
A
and lost (-$1.16 net)
178 hands is enough to know this guy aint aggressive post flop without a strong hand. I did tank for a while but the agg % was too low for me.... I said 'crazy' in the chat window to see if i could get a response and he claimed a bluff with dozens of smiley faces...I didn't believe him
IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
SB: $15.46 (154.6 bb)
BB: $7 (70 bb)
UTG: $5.22 (52.2 bb)
MP: $3.57 (35.7 bb)
CO: $10.78 (107.8 bb) vpip70/pfr33/agg%27 in 178 hands
Hero (BTN): $10 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with K
2 folds, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, CO calls $0.30
Flop: ($0.95) Q
CO checks, Hero bets $0.76, CO raises to $10.38, Hero folds
Results: $2.47 pot ($0.16 rake)
Final Board: Q
CO mucked and won $2.31 ($1.15 net)
Hero mucked K
178 hands is enough to know this guy aint aggressive post flop without a strong hand. I did tank for a while but the agg % was too low for me.... I said 'crazy' in the chat window to see if i could get a response and he claimed a bluff with dozens of smiley faces...I didn't believe him
Last edited:
John A said:
yea the John A rule seems like it should be "baluga theorem 2" 🙂 seems pretty sound to me since more often than not when i look up these ridiculously massive overbets it's just some super nutted hand looking to get paid. so i did fold but it did leave me wondering what he had, it better not have been a busted flush draw!
Figaroo2 said:By John's Law a good fold then?
IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
SB: $15.46 (154.6 bb)
BB: $7 (70 bb)
UTG: $5.22 (52.2 bb)
MP: $3.57 (35.7 bb)
CO: $10.78 (107.8 bb) vpip70/pfr33/agg%27 in 178 hands
Hero (BTN): $10 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with KA
2 folds, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, CO calls $0.30
Flop: ($0.95) QA2(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.76, CO raises to $10.38, Hero folds
Results: $2.47 pot ($0.16 rake)
Final Board: QA2
CO mucked and won $2.31 ($1.15 net)
Hero mucked KAand lost (-$1.16 net)
178 hands is enough to know this guy aint aggressive post flop without a strong hand. I did tank for a while but the agg % was too low for me.... I said 'crazy' in the chat window to see if i could get a response and he claimed a bluff with dozens of smiley faces...I didn't believe him
given he looks like a passive fish seems like an easy fold to me. with no reads its meh
i've been doing a bit of math recently trying to work out the profitability of shoving over a button 4bet from the blinds with AKo, JJ, TT, AQs vs unknowns at 10nl. i assumed that the population tendency is to respond to the 5bet with the following frequencies...
60%: call with a range of JJ+/AK
35%: Fold bluffs (we pick up the pot)
5%: call light with a range of 99-TT/AQ
using these frequencies and assuming i 3bet to 10bb and he 4bet to 22bb, i calculated that shoving AKo had an EV of 6.5bb, JJ had 2.5bb, TT had -2bb, and AQs had -4bb. this leads me to conclude we should 3bet/jam AKo and JJ, 3bet/fold AQs and maybe just flat TT vs an unknown in this spot (from the big blind at least).
i was wondering how reasonable do you think these assumptions and conclusions are vs random 10nl players? and do you think anything changes for CO vs BTN instead of BTN vs blinds?
60%: call with a range of JJ+/AK
35%: Fold bluffs (we pick up the pot)
5%: call light with a range of 99-TT/AQ
using these frequencies and assuming i 3bet to 10bb and he 4bet to 22bb, i calculated that shoving AKo had an EV of 6.5bb, JJ had 2.5bb, TT had -2bb, and AQs had -4bb. this leads me to conclude we should 3bet/jam AKo and JJ, 3bet/fold AQs and maybe just flat TT vs an unknown in this spot (from the big blind at least).
i was wondering how reasonable do you think these assumptions and conclusions are vs random 10nl players? and do you think anything changes for CO vs BTN instead of BTN vs blinds?
Figaroo2 said:By John's Law a good fold then?
IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
SB: $15.46 (154.6 bb)
BB: $7 (70 bb)
UTG: $5.22 (52.2 bb)
MP: $3.57 (35.7 bb)
CO: $10.78 (107.8 bb) vpip70/pfr33/agg%27 in 178 hands
Hero (BTN): $10 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with KA
2 folds, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, CO calls $0.30
Flop: ($0.95) QA2(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.76, CO raises to $10.38, Hero folds
Results: $2.47 pot ($0.16 rake)
Final Board: QA2
CO mucked and won $2.31 ($1.15 net)
Hero mucked KAand lost (-$1.16 net)
178 hands is enough to know this guy aint aggressive post flop without a strong hand. I did tank for a while but the agg % was too low for me.... I said 'crazy' in the chat window to see if i could get a response and he claimed a bluff with dozens of smiley faces...I didn't believe him
Yeah, guys like this are going to be calling with their draws. Good fold. But the "rule" wouldn't apply here. Not on a draw heavy flop shove. I think the rule applies most aptly on river bets.
going on tilt
had to stop tonight.
Guys please reaffirm for me that these are just coolers. One after the other bang bang same table my whole day lost.
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
SB: $25.70 (102.8 bb)
BB: $25 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $21.31 (85.2 bb)
UTG+2: $25 (100 bb)
MP1: $25 (100 bb) Tight reg
Hero (MP2): $26.85 (107.4 bb)
MP3: $20.19 (80.8 bb) fish
CO: $25 (100 bb)
BTN: $38.16 (152.6 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A
A
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.60, MP3 calls $2.60, 4 folds, MP1 calls $1.85
Flop: ($8.15) 6
8
K
(3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $3.89, MP3 calls $3.89, MP1 folds
Turn: ($15.93) 4
(2 players)
Hero bets $15.21, MP3 calls $13.70 (I'm not sure what he has as he's a fish but I expect him to have a King here most of the the time)
River: ($43.33) J
(2 players)
Results: $43.33 pot ($1.95 rake)
Final Board: 6
8
K
4
J
Hero showed A
A
and lost (-$20.19 net)
MP3 showed 6
6
and won $41.38 ($21.19 net)
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
SB: $33.26 (133 bb)
BB: $25.60 (102.4 bb)
UTG+2: $26.61 (106.4 bb)
MP1: $25.86 (103.4 bb)
MP2: $25 (100 bb)
Hero (MP3): $25 (100 bb)
CO: $47.52 (190.1 bb) (fish that has my money flat calling a three bet from mp with 66 w am ker)
BTN: $25 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T
T
UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, MP2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 4 folds
Flop: ($1.85) T
9
8
(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.88, MP1 raises to $2.64, Hero raises to $6.16, MP1 raises to $9.68, Hero raises to $24.25 and is all-in, MP1 calls $14.57
Turn: ($50.35) K
(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($50.35) 6
(2 players, 1 is all-in)
Results: $50.35 pot ($2 rake)
Final Board: T
9
8
K
6
MP1 showed J
Q
and won $48.35 ($23.35 net)
Hero mucked T
T
and lost (-$25 net)
😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡 honestly its so long since I filled to a boat in these sort of circs I can't remember.
had to stop tonight.
Guys please reaffirm for me that these are just coolers. One after the other bang bang same table my whole day lost.
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
SB: $25.70 (102.8 bb)
BB: $25 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $21.31 (85.2 bb)
UTG+2: $25 (100 bb)
MP1: $25 (100 bb) Tight reg
Hero (MP2): $26.85 (107.4 bb)
MP3: $20.19 (80.8 bb) fish
CO: $25 (100 bb)
BTN: $38.16 (152.6 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.60, MP3 calls $2.60, 4 folds, MP1 calls $1.85
Flop: ($8.15) 6
MP1 checks, Hero bets $3.89, MP3 calls $3.89, MP1 folds
Turn: ($15.93) 4
Hero bets $15.21, MP3 calls $13.70 (I'm not sure what he has as he's a fish but I expect him to have a King here most of the the time)
River: ($43.33) J
Results: $43.33 pot ($1.95 rake)
Final Board: 6
Hero showed A
MP3 showed 6
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
SB: $33.26 (133 bb)
BB: $25.60 (102.4 bb)
UTG+2: $26.61 (106.4 bb)
MP1: $25.86 (103.4 bb)
MP2: $25 (100 bb)
Hero (MP3): $25 (100 bb)
CO: $47.52 (190.1 bb) (fish that has my money flat calling a three bet from mp with 66 w am ker)
BTN: $25 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T
UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, MP2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 4 folds
Flop: ($1.85) T
MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.88, MP1 raises to $2.64, Hero raises to $6.16, MP1 raises to $9.68, Hero raises to $24.25 and is all-in, MP1 calls $14.57
Turn: ($50.35) K
River: ($50.35) 6
Results: $50.35 pot ($2 rake)
Final Board: T
MP1 showed J
Hero mucked T
😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡 honestly its so long since I filled to a boat in these sort of circs I can't remember.
Last edited:
Figaroo2 said:
one thing that has really helped me a lot with tilt this month is just hiding my bankroll graph from pokertracker so then i won't know how much i made or lost each day. you should give it a try, it has really allowed me to focus more on my game rather than short term variance. Whereas if i'm constantly checking my bankroll graph and see a sudden drop then it sticks in my mind and i lose confidence in my play.
Figaroo2 said:
I know it sucks when you're having a bad day. We've all been there. But I also know you're good enough to not even have me answer those questions.
Just get yourself a break, get your mind off poker, and then return when you feel refreshed. You can be one of the best players in the world, but if you don't learn how to walk away, re-group, and play when you're on your A game, you'll just piss what you win away when you're off your game and pushing too hard.
Remember, the games will always be there.
BTN: 138.1 BB
SB: 133.2 BB (VPIP: 10.71, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
BB: 51.5 BB (VPIP: 7.38, PFR: 3.70, 3Bet Preflop: 2.83, Hands: 249)
UTG: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 14.35, PFR: 8.97, 3Bet Preflop: 1.20, Hands: 226)
Hero (UTG+1): 100 BB
MP: 164.7 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
MP+1: 155.2 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP+2: 113.5 BB (VPIP: 18.87, PFR: 15.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 53)
CO: 74.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q<font color='black'>♠</font> K<font color='black'>♠</font>
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold
Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) Q<font color='black'>♣</font> Q<font color='red'>♥</font> A<font color='red'>♥</font>
Hero bets 4.8 BB, BTN calls 4.8 BB
Turn: (17.1 BB, 2 players) 4<font color='red'>♦</font>
Hero bets 11 BB, BTN calls 11 BB
River: (39.1 BB, 2 players) T<font color='red'>♦</font>
Hero bets 24 BB, BTN raises to 58 BB, fold
BTN wins 83.2 BB
Here's an interesting hand. I kinda wanted to throw up when he raised smallish on the river cos i thought my hand was strong but i just didn't know what i beat then. maybe a couple of QJ or QT combos if he chose to raise those?? or is he gonna show up with boats too often here? it's tough since there are hardly any combos that beat me but it's hard to see what i can beat here...
SB: 133.2 BB (VPIP: 10.71, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
BB: 51.5 BB (VPIP: 7.38, PFR: 3.70, 3Bet Preflop: 2.83, Hands: 249)
UTG: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 14.35, PFR: 8.97, 3Bet Preflop: 1.20, Hands: 226)
Hero (UTG+1): 100 BB
MP: 164.7 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
MP+1: 155.2 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP+2: 113.5 BB (VPIP: 18.87, PFR: 15.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 53)
CO: 74.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q<font color='black'>♠</font> K<font color='black'>♠</font>
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold
Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) Q<font color='black'>♣</font> Q<font color='red'>♥</font> A<font color='red'>♥</font>
Hero bets 4.8 BB, BTN calls 4.8 BB
Turn: (17.1 BB, 2 players) 4<font color='red'>♦</font>
Hero bets 11 BB, BTN calls 11 BB
River: (39.1 BB, 2 players) T<font color='red'>♦</font>
Hero bets 24 BB, BTN raises to 58 BB, fold
BTN wins 83.2 BB
Here's an interesting hand. I kinda wanted to throw up when he raised smallish on the river cos i thought my hand was strong but i just didn't know what i beat then. maybe a couple of QJ or QT combos if he chose to raise those?? or is he gonna show up with boats too often here? it's tough since there are hardly any combos that beat me but it's hard to see what i can beat here...
Hmmm you missed off the button stats but even so I'm calling here a fair percentage of the time.
Im at work and can't access my equity tools but in my head and in terms combos it must be close to a call.
we lose to 6 combos of AA &AQ. & 1 QTs and maybe sick/less likely QTo (9 in total)
tie with 3 KQ.
We beat 4 QJ
If he has any Qx he probably puts you on Ax and is raising for perceived value.
Id say him having AT cancels out his QTo
I Take it the pot is 124bb and its 58 to call so we are getting just over 2-1.
It must be close so depends on the player type which we don't have.
Im at work and can't access my equity tools but in my head and in terms combos it must be close to a call.
we lose to 6 combos of AA &AQ. & 1 QTs and maybe sick/less likely QTo (9 in total)
tie with 3 KQ.
We beat 4 QJ
If he has any Qx he probably puts you on Ax and is raising for perceived value.
Id say him having AT cancels out his QTo
I Take it the pot is 124bb and its 58 to call so we are getting just over 2-1.
It must be close so depends on the player type which we don't have.
Last edited:
sorry no stats on button 🙁 yea i still haven't worked out how to find the hand equity calculator for this specific hand, but agree it's a close one. we're actually getting better odds than you suggest since we already put in money on the river so it's more like 3:1. even still, we have to consider what his preflop range is for calling an EP open, and it's going to be weighted more towards AQ, KQs and slowplayed AA than hands like QJo or ATo, and i don't see any reason for him to raise AT on the river anyway (his paired ten is counterfeited). so yea i'm leaning towards a fold now but i'd be interested to hear John's opinion on this one
Last edited:
I agree the river raise at these stakes indicates you probably are beaten here by AQ or AA but at higher stakes where opponents can bluff raise and seek out thinner value I think you have to look them up sometimes. People do call wider on the button which is why Id like to see the button stats to see who we are up against. Someone loose could have suited heart connectors here and realise that AK is in a tough spot here on the river.
Figaroo2 said:
yea obviously from a game theory perspective it's a bad fold and super exploitable since it means essentially we're only calling with boats. but it all comes down to whether or not people will exploit us at micros and i'm guessing probably not so we might be able to make an exploitative fold here, but i'll bear that in mind as i move up 🙂
Thinking about it only a queen or AA is realistically raising here . There is too much chance from your triple barrel you have a queen here and won't fold to punt off 58bb.
Doesn't mean we still can't chop or beat QJ. I would raise a Q here in the absence of any flush and likely straights especially QK. At these stakes I like your fold... interesting hand. Also interested to see you on the zoom tables not my personal choice, there are some very good regs in zoom I think I find more fish/recreationals on conventional tables where they are also easier to identify
Anyone else with some input?
Doesn't mean we still can't chop or beat QJ. I would raise a Q here in the absence of any flush and likely straights especially QK. At these stakes I like your fold... interesting hand. Also interested to see you on the zoom tables not my personal choice, there are some very good regs in zoom I think I find more fish/recreationals on conventional tables where they are also easier to identify
Anyone else with some input?
Last edited:
Figaroo2 said:
i moved to zoom recently. i don't like the hassle of constantly opening and closing masses of tables in the regular format, it's distracting and i think it hinders my play. i've tried 6 tabling but then i get bored since i like fast action.
zoom gives me the action i crave whilst i can still concentrate easily on four tables at once, and i love the format and the fast fold button! my winrate has improved after i switched to zoom, not just my hourly (more volume) but also my bb/100.
but each to his own 🙂