John A said:
Yeah I did fold this particular hand. It was close but his AF is distorted by a lack of hands.
I've watched and commented on the recent videos.
I have been using the new Leakbuster 2. Same old leaks!
Still after a sweat.
Is this a +ev call?
John
Tbh Ive gotton a bit sloppy with my poker math in recent times and need help with this hand. In this hand Im up against 2 fish who are both allin on the turn after a flush/straight card arrives. We have top set and will probably need to boat to scoop.
It more complicated than that though as both are loose and I doubt we are beaten by both players. Worst case would be the bigger stacked villian having the flush or 9T but thats not a given.
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
SB: $9.90 (99 bb)
BB: $10.60 (106 bb)
UTG+2: $11.02 (110.2 bb)VPIP: 40, PFR: 30, 3B: 0, AF: 7.0, Hands: 10
MP1: $9.75 (97.5 bb)
MP2: $10 (100 bb)
MP3: $3.04 (30.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $18.87 (188.7 bb)
BTN: $5.59 (55.9 bb)VPIP: 58, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 1.3, Hands: 24
Preflop: Hero is CO with Q♥ Q♦
UTG+2 raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.90, BTN calls $0.90, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.60
Flop: ($2.85) 5♣ Q♣ 8♥ (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $1.81, BTN calls $1.81, UTG+2 calls $1.81
Turn: ($8.28) J♣ (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $2.88 and is all-in, UTG+2 raises to $8.31 and is all-in, Hero?
John
Tbh Ive gotton a bit sloppy with my poker math in recent times and need help with this hand. In this hand Im up against 2 fish who are both allin on the turn after a flush/straight card arrives. We have top set and will probably need to boat to scoop.
It more complicated than that though as both are loose and I doubt we are beaten by both players. Worst case would be the bigger stacked villian having the flush or 9T but thats not a given.
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
SB: $9.90 (99 bb)
BB: $10.60 (106 bb)
UTG+2: $11.02 (110.2 bb)VPIP: 40, PFR: 30, 3B: 0, AF: 7.0, Hands: 10
MP1: $9.75 (97.5 bb)
MP2: $10 (100 bb)
MP3: $3.04 (30.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $18.87 (188.7 bb)
BTN: $5.59 (55.9 bb)VPIP: 58, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 1.3, Hands: 24
Preflop: Hero is CO with Q♥ Q♦
UTG+2 raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.90, BTN calls $0.90, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.60
Flop: ($2.85) 5♣ Q♣ 8♥ (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $1.81, BTN calls $1.81, UTG+2 calls $1.81
Turn: ($8.28) J♣ (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $2.88 and is all-in, UTG+2 raises to $8.31 and is all-in, Hero?
Ok I had a go.
I'm coming to an ev figure of -$3.88 if we call, but that doesn't account for the side pot of $5.31, if we beat the bigger stack.
Lets say we beat him half the time we are still losing and would need to beat the bigger stack in the side pot at least 75% of the time to be +ev. So overall it looks pretty close.
I'm coming to an ev figure of -$3.88 if we call, but that doesn't account for the side pot of $5.31, if we beat the bigger stack.
Lets say we beat him half the time we are still losing and would need to beat the bigger stack in the side pot at least 75% of the time to be +ev. So overall it looks pretty close.
Figaroo2 said:
I haven't done much work on the math side either in a long time but if i remember correctly the forumla is, equity x total pot - call so vs a flush so we need around 25% to break even and we have just over 26%.
.25 x 24.90 - 5.43 = 0.795
So even in the worst case scenario of the btn having the flush we still get the correct price to call given our equity and pot odds if my math is correct.
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Clearly our equity depends on how wide a range we give them.
How did you come up with 26%?
Using propoker tools I make it 22.7% v just a flush and our equity decreased further factoring in the 3rd hand.
My calcs were based on their exact hands.
How did you come up with 26%?
Using propoker tools I make it 22.7% v just a flush and our equity decreased further factoring in the 3rd hand.
My calcs were based on their exact hands.
Figaroo2 said:
I didnt plug the turn in to equlib my mistake it's 23% 22.73 just round it up and in reality it's going to be better than this when we consider worse sets some tp+draw and KK-AA which villain shove to protect and to iso the fish. I think that wider range for utg+2 more than makes up for any negative impact the btn's range has on our equity which is minimal tbh being a shortstack fish.
At the start of CHapter 7: 3-Betting you are saying that "removing a lot of your opponent's small pairs and marginal hands increases your equity with a high un-paired hand like AQo, but decreases with a big pair (JJ)".
The thing is that in your equity simulator AQo has :
57.64% vs calling a CO open of 29.5 and
48.97 % vs CO 3-Bet calling range,
So the equity is decreasing actually. I'm a little bit confuse here.
vadimcs1495 said:AQo equity vs 3Bet calling range
At the start of CHapter 7: 3-Betting you are saying that "removing a lot of your opponent's small pairs and marginal hands increases your equity with a high un-paired hand like AQo, but decreases with a big pair (JJ)".
The thing is that in your equity simulator AQo has :
57.64% vs calling a CO open of 29.5 and
48.97 % vs CO 3-Bet calling range,
So the equity is decreasing actually. I'm a little bit confuse here.
I believe the point being made here is the dfference in equity between flatting v 3betting with certain hands.
JJ and AQ obviously both have good equity v a normal CO opening range. But when you three bet both hands your equity falls off more with JJ than v AQ.
This is because the three bet calling range will normally contain more Ax and less pairs.
AQ does better against the 3bet calling range than JJ.
So you may want to consider flatting hands like JJ TT 99 rather than 3bet them against slightly tighter opponents as you keep in all their small pairs and suited connectors against which JJ perform better than say AQ.
Figaroo2 said:
I don't think it's super close, but like always, it depends on range assignment. So why don't we start there and give me some ranges for both of these guys, because the math part is easy after that correct?
John A said:
The BTN is a clear fish who flats the 3bet oop. When he calls flop and goes all in he can be very wide but the worst I'd give him is the nut flush draw with the Ac. He can have made flushes, some 2pair, maybe some T9s and sets.
UTG2 is more of an unknown but has been aggro, 40/30 in 10 hands points towards aggro fish. When he calls the flop I would range him as flush draws, sets or strong 2pair really only QJs.
When he iso shoves turn (I think in hindsight) he would be a bit weaker than a strong flush, he should probably just call with a decent flush to keep me in the hand, so he has a weak flush at best.
I think I should be calling and trying to win the side pot for this reason alone.
Figaroo2 said:
Ok, what nut flush draw does BTN have? AcTc? There's not a log of nut flush draws.
You probably have at least 40% equity against both of them, so this is a pretty easy call. It could be as high as 50%. I was just more curious about a specific range from you.
SB: 193.5 BB
BB: 99 BB
UTG: 9.5 BB
MP: 126 BB
CO: 129 BB
Hero (BTN): 193 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ac Ad
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, SB raises to 10 BB, fold, Hero raises to 23.5 BB, SB calls 13.5 BB
Flop : (48 BB, 2 players) 3h 7c 2h
SB checks, Hero bets 27 BB, SB calls 27 BB
Turn : (102 BB, 2 players) 5s
SB checks, Hero bets 46 BB, fold
V's a loose aggro station. Not sure of the sizings flop & turn this deep. His range can definitely have some SCs & mid pairs.
Is overbet jamming turn is bad? maybe another 30BBish bet?
He's running 33/24/10, 3b from SB 15%
BB: 99 BB
UTG: 9.5 BB
MP: 126 BB
CO: 129 BB
Hero (BTN): 193 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ac Ad
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, SB raises to 10 BB, fold, Hero raises to 23.5 BB, SB calls 13.5 BB
Flop : (48 BB, 2 players) 3h 7c 2h
SB checks, Hero bets 27 BB, SB calls 27 BB
Turn : (102 BB, 2 players) 5s
SB checks, Hero bets 46 BB, fold
V's a loose aggro station. Not sure of the sizings flop & turn this deep. His range can definitely have some SCs & mid pairs.
Is overbet jamming turn is bad? maybe another 30BBish bet?
He's running 33/24/10, 3b from SB 15%
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 266.5 BB
SB: 49 BB
BB: 267.5 BB
UTG: 129 BB
Hero (MP): 100.5 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ah Qs
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB
Flop : (6.5 BB, 2 players) 8h Jh Qh
BB checks, Hero bets 2.5 BB, BB raises to 10 BB, Hero calls 7.5 BB
Turn : (26.5 BB, 2 players) Kh
BB bets 20 BB, Hero calls 20 BB
River : (66.5 BB, 2 players) 7h
BB bets 15 BB,
I feel this is a really interesting hand. Not ure if I should just call river cause the only value hand he's betting on river is T9h
BTN: 266.5 BB
SB: 49 BB
BB: 267.5 BB
UTG: 129 BB
Hero (MP): 100.5 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ah Qs
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB
Flop : (6.5 BB, 2 players) 8h Jh Qh
BB checks, Hero bets 2.5 BB, BB raises to 10 BB, Hero calls 7.5 BB
Turn : (26.5 BB, 2 players) Kh
BB bets 20 BB, Hero calls 20 BB
River : (66.5 BB, 2 players) 7h
BB bets 15 BB,
I feel this is a really interesting hand. Not ure if I should just call river cause the only value hand he's betting on river is T9h
John A said:
I was talking nut flush draws on the turn with the Ac
On the turn I would give the BTN;
all the Qx so AxQs, KsQs, QsJs, then the club draws,
AcJx, AcTc, KcTc, sets 88 and 55, plus a few other random flushes like Tc9c, 7c6c, 8c7c, 6c5c. I make it we have about 80% against that range.
The UTG would have similar ranges but with more Ac suited hands Ac9c right down to Ac2c are probably possible, he's going to call the preflop 3bet a lot wider with the SB in there. I make it having UTG reduces our equity to 52-55% against those ranges.
(As it turned out I actually only had 16.6% on the turn, versus a flush and a set that took away some of our boat outs)