Video Poker: Is the Royal Flush Chasing Worth It?

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Das991992

Das991992

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There’s something about seeing four cards toward a royal that makes you want to chase it. But changing a good hold just because a royal is possible can be costly. How do you handle those spots?
 
The correct play is to hold the four royal cards and let anything you already have go unless you have straight flush or the royal already.
It may seem counterintuitive but if you are playing to win this is the most profitable strategy - pure maths, no feelings about it.

The expectation on 4 to a royal is 18.5x your bet. (So 1 coin in 18.5 coins out on average).

Compare this to holding..
A made flush pays 6x
A made straight pays 4x
A made pair JJ+ pays 1x (expectation is a bit better than this as we can make 1 pair+)
 
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monkeytilter said:
The correct play is to hold the four royal cards and let anything you already have go unless you have 4 of a kind, straight flush or the royal already.
It may seem counterintuitive but if you are playing to win this is the most profitable strategy - pure maths, no feelings about it.
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@monkeytilter, that makes sense. I guess the hard part is ignoring the temptation when you’re staring at four royal cards.
 
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Das991992 said:
There’s something about seeing four cards toward a royal that makes you want to chase it. But changing a good hold just because a royal is possible can be costly. How do you handle those spots?
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I have wanted to see a lot in my life and I want to see a lot in the near future. How will I cope with this?
I have a good breakfast in the morning, I don't smoke or drink. I think I have every chance.
 
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@black and, haha, I guess the best way to handle it is breakfast first, royal chase second 😂 At least the maths gives us something to rely on.
 
Das991992 said:
@black and, haha, I guess the best way to handle it is breakfast first, royal chase second 😂 At least the maths gives us something to rely on.
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Don't forget with the royal draw you can still hit a straight, a flush or even a modest pair when you miss the 1 outer to your royal (98% of the time you will miss it).
 
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If you're playing to make money, the correct play (Strategy) is to chase the highest possible outcome even if you have to sacrifice those small payouts.
If you're just having fun or experimenting, then discard what I just said and keep having fun the way you want.
 
monkeytilter said:
Don't forget with the royal draw you can still hit a straight, a flush or even a modest pair when you miss the 1 outer to your royal (98% of the time you will miss it).
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exactly. That’s what makes the royal chase less painful when it misses. You’re not necessarily walking away with nothing, which makes the decision easier.

TeUnit said:
You got to look at the odds.
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yeah, the odds really put the temptation into perspective. Four cards look so close to a royal, but the math is what keeps the decision grounded.

najisami said:
If you're playing to make money, the correct play (Strategy) is to chase the highest possible outcome even if you have to sacrifice those small payouts.
If you're just having fun or experimenting, then discard what I just said and keep having fun the way you want.
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I like that distinction. If the goal is profit, chasing the highest EV makes sense, but for fun I can see why people play it differently.
 
bowserdon said:
ya gotta try 4 the royal lol
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haha, exactly! The maths can tell me what to do, but four cards staring at a royal are hard to ignore 😂
 
Das991992 said:
haha, exactly! The maths can tell me what to do, but four cards staring at a royal are hard to ignore 😂
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What does the math tell you to do?
 
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monkeytilter said:
What does the math tell you to do?
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Hold the four royal cards and draw the fifth. The EV is higher than keeping the made hand, even though it feels risky.
 
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Das991992 said:
Hold the four royal cards and draw the fifth. The EV is higher than keeping the made hand, even though it feels risky.
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See to me that is the most profit and the most fun, can't beat drawing to a royal right?? 😍
 
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monkeytilter said:
See to me that is the most profit and the most fun, can't beat drawing to a royal right?? 😍
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Yeah exactly lol, most profit and most fun, why not go for the royal 😄
 
Worth it? Only with play money 😆
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