Video Poker Strategy Explained: The Math Behind Every Decision

🎰 CardsChat Casino Learning Series​

Part 2 of 3 – Video Poker Strategy Explained: The Math Behind Every Decision​

Now that we’ve covered the basics of video poker and optimal strategy, it’s time to dig deeper into the why behind those decisions.

In this lesson, we’ll break down the math behind common situations—when you have a made hand versus the potential for a stronger one—and what the odds actually say you should do.

Key reminder: You’re not playing against other players. You’re playing against a pay table.
Your goal is to maximize expected value (EV)—not just improve your hand.

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🔍 What We’ll Cover​

• Video Poker Strategy vs. Payout Tables
• Made Hands vs. Drawing Hands
• Edge Cases: When to Hold “Nothing”
• When (and When Not) to Chase Big Wins

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💥 Video Poker Strategy Against Payouts​

From the last lesson: always play the maximum number of coins to unlock the best payouts—especially for the Royal Flush.
We’ll assume a 5-coin bet here:

• Royal Flush: 800:1 (4000 coins)
• Straight Flush: 250
• Four of a Kind: 125

🤔 Why “Four to a Royal” Is So Powerful​

Even though the odds are slim:

• Only 1 winning card out of 47
• That’s about a 2.13% chance

But here’s the key:
If you simulate 47 hands:

• 1 win = 4000 coins
• 46 losses = 0
• Average = ~85 coins per hand

That’s why chasing a Royal (with 4 cards) can be worth more than keeping a straight or flush.

Important: If you’re not playing max coins:

• Royal drops to 250 coins
• EV drops to ~5 coins

In that case, you should NOT chase the Royal—you’d even keep a pair of Jacks instead.

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💥 Made Hands vs. Chasing Straights & Flushes​

🂫 Pair of Jacks vs. Straight Draw​

• Pair of Jacks = 5 coins guaranteed
• Open-ended straight draw:
  • 8 outs → ~17% chance
  • EV ≈ 3.4 coins

Conclusion: Always keep the pair. Chasing the straight loses value over time.

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🂫 Pair of Jacks vs. Flush Draw​

• Flush draw:
  • 9 outs → ~19.2% chance
  • EV ≈ 5.7 coins

Sounds better, right?
Not so fast!! You also need to factor in the chances of improving your pair:
Total EV = 8 coins

Final takeaway: Even against a flush draw, keep the pair of Jacks.

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💥 Edge Case: When to Hold “Nothing”​

Let’s say you’re dealt a pair of Nines (which doesn’t pay).
Using the same math:

• EV ≈ 4.8 coins

➡️ That’s a long-term loss.

So what should you do instead?​

Compare alternatives:

• Four to a Flush: EV ≈ 5.7 ✅
• Four to a Straight (open): EV ≈ 3.4 ❌
• Four to a Straight (gutshot): EV ≈ 1.7 ❌

Rule of thumb:

• Keep 4 to a flush over a low pair
• Keep any pair over a straight draw

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💥 Made Hands vs. “Going for More”​

🃏 Straight vs. Straight Flush Draw​

• Straight = 20 coins guaranteed

Draw odds:

• Gutshot: EV ≈ 10.4
• Open-ended: EV ≈ 15.1

❌ Not worth it.
Exception:
If it’s 4 to a Royal, then go for it.

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🃏 Flush vs. Straight Flush Draw​

• Flush = 30 coins guaranteed

Draw EV:

• Max ≈ 14.5

❌ Definitely not worth chasing.
Again, only break this rule for 4 to a Royal.

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🃏 Flush vs. 3 to a Royal​

• Royal odds: 0.093%
• EV: < 5 coins

Easy decision: Keep the flush.

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🃏 Straight Flush vs. Royal Draw​

• Straight Flush = 250 coins
• EV of chasing Royal ≈ 90 coins

❌ Even here—it’s not worth it.

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🎯 Summary​

Video poker strategy isn’t about chasing big hands—it’s about making the most profitable decision every time.

Key Takeaways:​

• Always play max coins
• Prioritize expected value over excitement
• Keep most made hands
• Only chase a Royal when you have 4 to it

Mastering this mindset is what separates casual players from sharp ones.

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💬 Member Question​

Are you someone who used to chase a Royal no matter what? What surprised you most in this lesson? Let’s hear your thoughts and improve together.

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I won't be able to play with the maximum number of coins, at least not yet. So in my case, you just need to prioritize correctly, play pragmatically and not chase big hands. I think this is a completely practical conclusion

I have chased Royal many times with 2 or 3 cards and have learnt that its a -EV play
I have never hit a Royal in video poker though or straight flush

I have a question, is it better to stick to 1 or multiple hands?

This is really helpful and I appreciate the in-depth dive into the reasons why we make our decisions. Over the long term, this should be helpful in giving us a bit more of an edge. I know that it is correct to make the maximum bets, but this is an area where I struggle in real cash games. Because while this is true over the long run, during my single session is means that I'm using up my money at a much faster rate.

Video poker was a lot easier in the olden days.

I fondly remember the video poker at HardRock having a 104% return to player.
While that assumes perfect play, a decent player could still get to over 100%.

Today its really hard to find 100% RTP in Vegas and almost impossible outside of Vegas.

Thanks for the throughout explanation regarding the math behind every decision in video Poker. Its very interesting that chasing a royal flush can be more profitable than keeping an already made straight or flush.

maronza1 said:

I have chased Royal many times with 2 or 3 cards and have learnt that its a -EV play
I have never hit a Royal in video poker though or straight flush

I have a question, is it better to stick to 1 or multiple hands?

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That's a good question...it really depends but long term my gut is that you're better playing 1 hand vs multiple. Reasoning:
- Multiple hands tend to drop your bet size, meaning you win less when you win
- When you have a good set-up - 4 cards being held - you'll rarely profit on the hand whereas playing one hand, all you need is two pair to make money.

Having said that, if you hit a huge hand, playing multiple makes sense but that's hard to get dealt 5 cards that you want to keep.

Sunz of Beaches said:

Thanks for the throughout explanation regarding the math behind every decision in video Poker. Its very interesting that chasing a royal flush can be more profitable than keeping an already made straight or flush.

Click to expand...

It's worth studying as optimal is often counter intuitive.

I had a weird spot today, first reaction was to hold the flush draw but holding the 3 to the Royal is the correct play (109% vs 125% EV)



Had a heart flutter when the Jd landed, but maxxed out at the straight - I'll still take it though

monkeytilter said:

It's worth studying as optimal is often counter intuitive.

I had a weird spot today, first reaction was to hold the flush draw but holding the 3 to the Royal is the correct play (109% vs 125% EV)

View attachment 407273

Had a heart flutter when the Jd landed, but maxxed out at the straight - I'll still take it though
View attachment 407274

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So let's play this out, first calculating the odds and payout of going for the Royal. You have 3, meaning you have 2 to draw, giving odds of:
(2/47) X (1/46) --> 0.0925%, giving a long term EV of 3.7 chips when you hit the Royal

Now the flush - you have 4 to a flush meaning you only need one more, giving odds of:
(9/47) --> 19.149%, giving a long term EV of 4.78 chips

You should have kept the 5 of Diamonds and went for the flush. The problem that needing to draw 2 reduces your odds significantly to the point that even a max coin Royal isn't worth chasing despite the short term payoff.

CRStals said:

So let's play this out, first calculating the odds and payout of going for the Royal. You have 3, meaning you have 2 to draw, giving odds of:
(2/47) X (1/46) --> 0.0925%, giving a long term EV of 3.7 chips when you hit the Royal

Now the flush - you have 4 to a flush meaning you only need one more, giving odds of:
(9/47) --> 19.149%, giving a long term EV of 4.78 chips

You should have kept the 5 of Diamonds and went for the flush. The problem that needing to draw 2 reduces your odds significantly to the point that even a max coin Royal isn't worth chasing despite the short term payoff.

Click to expand...

You need to also count the straights, flushes, trips, two pairs, JJ+ pairs, that the three royal cards can hit?

Similarly the 4 flush hold can hit some JJ+ pair outs.

monkeytilter said:

You need to also count the straights, flushes, trips, two pairs, JJ+ pairs, that the three royal cards can hit?

Similarly the 4 flush hold can hit some JJ+ pair outs.

View attachment 407294

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Yes but that will happen with both situations but if you ran out the entire calculation, it won't change the result - 3 to a Royal is not worth saving over 5 to a flush.

CRStals said:

Yes but that will happen with both situations but if you ran out the entire calculation, it won't change the result - 3 to a Royal is not worth saving over 5 to a flush.

Click to expand...

"but that will happen with both situations"
Not really as holding the 4 card flush draw only yields the flush, JJ or AA compared to trips, straight, 2 pair for 3 card royal draw.

The EVs shown are for running out the "entire calculation" not just the odds on the targeted "best" hand.
All those possible "minor" wins must be counted in our EV!

This is why if you look at "play charts" you will see 3 to a royal appears in the lists before 4 to a flush.

Playing Max coins will break you very fast . No thanks .

I definitely won't play at Maximum Bets, but sometimes, if you're in the mood, you can try to conduct some experiments. Especially if you take into account the recommendations given in this thread. I think it will be interesting

maronza1 said:

I have chased Royal many times with 2 or 3 cards and have learnt that its a -EV play
I have never hit a Royal in video poker though or straight flush

I have a question, is it better to stick to 1 or multiple hands?

Click to expand...

I looks better but every machine I have seen that plays 50 or 100 hand also has a reduced Payout for flushes and full houses, 8/5 and in one machine it was 7/5, instead of the standard 9/6. ALWAYS look at the PAYOUT STRUCTURE.

Thanks to the first part of this learning series, my results have already improved. I hope that thanks to the second part, I will also feel progress. Thank you for the valuable information.

I've been playing video poker since about 2000. I've hit a Royal Flush many times, I think more than 10 times in all the time, but unfortunately I've always played at the minimum bet.

Fruit slots and video poker were my first and favorite games. In fact, they remain so to this day. And if we talk about fruit slots, then no special knowledge is needed, but as for poker, as we can see, there are many important aspects, and all of them can affect the result to some extent. Thank you for the detailed explanations. Now my game will be more pragmatic.

My bankroll for playing in an online casino is quite limited and I definitely won't be able to afford to play with the maximum number of coins. So the question arises, is there any point in playing at all if the maximum bet is unacceptable for you? I would be grateful for your comment.