AA & AK, allin experiment

pokerdebit · May 2, 2021

Hi Guys & Gals,

I wonder, how much do you trust Pokerstars?
Because I dont. Let me explain:

I tried an experiment to only play AA, KK and AK and went allin everytime at tournaments
In total I played 33 hands over many tournaments
16 of those hands were called
And I only won 6 of hands
So I lost 10 hands
This is statistically wrong

I should be winning around 10 to 12 hands
But I in fact lost 10 hands
Its like the odds were opposite
Thats why I dont trust it
It should be banned everywhere with those statistics

What are your thoughts?

Thanks for responding

puzzlefish · May 2, 2021

Now do it over 3 million hands.

Roller · May 2, 2021

To take a realistic look at odds/percentages you need a gigantic sample size that would show how hands play out. Random number generators and poker sites have no true motives to misrepresent the deal of cards.

shim36 · May 3, 2021

That's too small a denominator for statistics.
We need a lot more experiments.

dgroes · May 3, 2021

shim36 said:
That's too small a denominator for statistics.
We need a lot more experiments.

agree on this
and i agree long run it might look diff on a fair game.
now who will play 3 Mil Hands on his own and risk that money.

i wont. But hey is PS not subject to these audits by some authority?

abgvedr · May 3, 2021

But you did not even tell us how many callers you had. Cause if there were more then 1 then stats are really okay.
And after all AA KK is not the same as AK.
Also like folks already said - 30 hands is not enough.
Do it for at least a thousand heands and show more info - the callers, the hands and all the other stuff.
Do a proper investigation if you wana accuse poker room of cheating the RNG.

najisami · May 4, 2021

Yeah I agree with the guys, your numbers are too small. You won 6 hands out of 16 doesn't mean anything. The least you could've done is 100 hands, and that's not really enough to be talking statistics.

valetgll · May 4, 2021

With so many hands, you will not be able to draw a correct conclusion. You need a very large number of hands for such an experiment.

JAAMEZz · May 4, 2021

LOL you're basing this off 33 hands? you need to play it out 10,000 times. also your success with these hands depends on alot more than just the cards.

MrPokerVerse · May 6, 2021

pokerdebit said:
Hi Guys & Gals,

I wonder, how much do you trust Pokerstars?
Because I dont. Let me explain:

I tried an experiment to only play AA, KK and AK and went allin everytime at tournaments
In total I played 33 hands over many tournaments
16 of those hands were called
And I only won 6 of hands
So I lost 10 hands
This is statistically wrong

I should be winning around 10 to 12 hands
But I in fact lost 10 hands
Its like the odds were opposite
Thats why I dont trust it
It should be banned everywhere with those statistics

What are your thoughts?

Thanks for responding

I wonder how much this would change the trust issue? Nothing here is conclusive to warrant anything. Maybe just take the first step, just ban them. You know, stay ahead of the curve.

rafcio20p · May 6, 2021

It's strange, but with 6 wins I would be happy on PS

A joke, of course.

MrPokerVerse said:
I wonder how much this would change the trust issue? Nothing here is conclusive to warrant anything. Maybe just take the first step, just ban them. You know, stay ahead of the curve.

pokerdebit · May 6, 2021

Every comment seems to talk so negative about the odds I got. Its like they want to prove wrong, its fishy
I understand that the volume of hands here is small
But I have experienced this many times
That is why I did the test
But I will provide more stats

Also note that you usually win with a small stack
And loose with a big stack
The site does this to make up the overall odds

rafcio20p · May 6, 2021

I wonder if the percentage would increase on a larger statistical sample. I also wonder what it would be like if you were playing that way with low pairs, for example.

pokerdebit said:
Every comment seems to talk so negative about the odds I got. Its like they want to prove wrong, its fishy
I understand that the volume of hands here is small
But I have experienced this many times
That is why I did the test
But I will provide more stats

Also note that you usually win with a small stack
And loose with a big stack
The site does this to make up the overall odds

roger perkins · May 6, 2021

pokerdebit said:
Every comment seems to talk so negative about the odds I got. Its like they want to prove wrong, its fishy
I understand that the volume of hands here is small
But I have experienced this many times
That is why I did the test
But I will provide more stats

Also note that you usually win with a small stack
And loose with a big stack
The site does this to make up the overall odds

No no NOOOO. You don't usually lose with a big stack or win with a small stack. This is nonsense. There are many threads on here that claim the opposite. And those are nonsense. All of these reputable sites have some kind of authority auditing their programs. As an ex programmer I can tell you yes it would be easy to determine what cards to deal by looking at stacks or players names or whatever. That also would be very easy to catch in an audit. No company auditing these rooms would approve if they saw shenanigans like that.

MrPokerVerse · May 7, 2021

pokerdebit said:
Every comment seems to talk so negative about the odds I got. Its like they want to prove wrong, its fishy
I understand that the volume of hands here is small
But I have experienced this many times
That is why I did the test
But I will provide more stats

Also note that you usually win with a small stack
And loose with a big stack
The site does this to make up the overall odds

This is no way to approach hand analysis. First realize every hand is tracked and can be found online. People have tried to prove similar anomaly, which to my knowledge just a couple were conclusive. Those pretty much was the death sentence to the site.

If you are going to take the time with this unorthodox test, at least separate the data. Otherwise it is just useless information, not that extra step would help much, but at least it lends a tad bit more credibility.

AQA272 · May 7, 2021

too few hands bro at a longer distance AA will always be in the black

abgvedr · May 7, 2021

AQA272 said:
too few hands bro at a longer distance AA will always be in the black

Not if those be 5 way al ins tho

Thats like the key here that nobody seems to pay attention.
How many callers.

ObbleeXY · May 7, 2021

pokerdebit said:
Every comment seems to talk so negative about the odds I got. Its like they want to prove wrong, its fishy
I understand that the volume of hands here is small
But I have experienced this many times
That is why I did the test
But I will provide more stats

Also note that you usually win with a small stack
And loose with a big stack
The site does this to make up the overall odds

What would be more statitically interesting would be for you to collate game stats of these hands widely -- ie collect hands from everyone you can.

I do, however, think there are many reasons why AA, KK, AK get cracked.
As many have mentioned, the number of people in the pot is significant.

What games are you playing? Low stakes sees a lot of fish and call stations and these can mess us stats in the short term.

I do get where you're coming from. Bad beats galore. But in the long run, I'm in profit, and my strategy seems to pay off (when I'm disciplined enough to follow it).

I'll peruse my hand database and see what the ratios are for AA, KK, AK wins/losses. But I can tell you one thing. I've generally stopped shoving AKo pre-flop. I've lost too much that way. Recommend the same for you. Plus, get your money in good with AA, KK. You don't want to limp/call/min-raise with those hands unless you want them to get cracked.

Hope to get back with details on stats soon.

Cheers,
ObbleeXY

Leeyonah96 · May 7, 2021

AK is really a good jam. You still have a fold equity to all the players.

Zirkzee · May 7, 2021

Poker is an unpredictable game. For example, if you have AA and four opponents, your chance of victory is less than 50%. Often the probabilities are not distributed as clearly as they seem. In addition, you only played 33 hands. That is not enough to really make a statement. The variance in poker is big. Outliers are therefore quite possible. If you would repeat that a million times, you will win as often as the probabilities suggest.

Cinhos_2000 · May 7, 2021

pokerdebit said:
Every comment seems to talk so negative about the odds I got. Its like they want to prove wrong, its fishy
I understand that the volume of hands here is small
But I have experienced this many times
That is why I did the test
But I will provide more stats

Also note that you usually win with a small stack
And loose with a big stack
The site does this to make up the overall odds

I had my fair share of coolers on PokerStars, but I also got really lucky sometimes. If you don't play thousends of hands every day you probably will have an imbalanced perception of the odds on the site. The more you play the closer your win percentage will get to the 70-80% you're aiming. I just have one question for you: why do you think such a successful Poker room like PS would risk their credibility, customers and even the right to work to giving people coolers? They should actually do the opposite so people wouldn't be mad.

perrypip · May 7, 2021

Sounds like you are losing at poker and want to blame it on something else besides how you play. My advice is to study and improve your game.

LadderingUp · May 10, 2021

Trust it or not, there is so many people proving on a daily basis that hard work, focus, and dedication to the long term is in fact beatable. Just as your 33 hand sample size is too small, 1 year, 2 years etc is too small a sample. Give a handful of years putting in solid work and come back to this post. You'll laugh at yourself.

GLGL.

Jay_Romey · May 11, 2021

pokerdebit said:
Hi Guys & Gals,

I wonder, how much do you trust Pokerstars?
Because I dont. Let me explain:

I tried an experiment to only play AA, KK and AK and went allin everytime at tournaments
In total I played 33 hands over many tournaments
16 of those hands were called
And I only won 6 of hands
So I lost 10 hands
This is statistically wrong

I should be winning around 10 to 12 hands
But I in fact lost 10 hands
Its like the odds were opposite
Thats why I dont trust it
It should be banned everywhere with those statistics

What are your thoughts?

Thanks for responding

To small a sample size.

0546474 · May 11, 2021

What makes you think that you can win 10 out of 12 hands playing AA, KK and AK ??? I think this is an incorrect statement and you are wrong !!!

AA & AK, allin experiment

pokerdebit

Rock Star

puzzlefish

👆 the guy who's opinion you would trust on this!

Roller

Legend

shim36

Rock Star

dgroes

Visionary

abgvedr

Legend

najisami

Legend

valetgll

Visionary

JAAMEZz

Visionary

MrPokerVerse

Legend

rafcio20p

Rock Star

pokerdebit

Rock Star

rafcio20p

Rock Star

roger perkins

Visionary

MrPokerVerse

Legend

AQA272

Rock Star

abgvedr

Legend

ObbleeXY

Legend

Leeyonah96

Rock Star

Zirkzee

Rock Star

Cinhos_2000

Rock Star

perrypip

Rock Star

LadderingUp

Rock Star

Jay_Romey

Enthusiast

0546474

Legend

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site