Average swing length

Does anyone know if there's an average swing length, like - you've got to play 100,000 hands to remove variance etc?

I understand it's different all the time but is there some sort of average downswing length?

From the start to the end.

i have had swings last a few hours to a few months. i ride the wave and havent been swept away....yet

i honestly believe that if, lets say for example,you are playing cash with 25 buy ins and you lose 3 in a row,then your doing something wrong. i even feel that way after 2 ina row but after u have lost ur 3rd buy in,i would start regathering my thoughts and think about maybe slowing down my aggression or playing tighter or changing smthng cause its not easy to lose 3 buy ins so if thats the case change ur strategy. as far as long term swings i dont now man but if your bankroll is moving down instead of up then: HUSTON WE HAVE A PROBLEM. good luck yo you in your games.

I guess this will be useful to you: http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/

It's unlikely but certainly possible for 10bb/100 winning players to have 100,000 hand breakeven stretches

vinylspiros said:

i honestly believe that if, lets say for example,you are playing cash with 25 buy ins and you lose 3 in a row,then your doing something wrong.

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Nope, it's very easy to do everything right and lose 3 buy-ins.

micromachine said:

Nope, it's very easy to do everything right and lose 3 buy-ins.

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i know ,done it many times.i feel like its wrong though.gut feeling like huh? i lost a 3rd buy in.this is just crazy!

100k hands is often put forward as a minimum number of hands to offset variance, but it's a guideline that doesn't apply equally to everyone. A key reason is that people play differently. Those whose styles are subject to greater variance need more hands, while some may need less. Plus the way such stats work, larger sample sizes make it more likely your result is true, but not absolutely certain.